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Cotton, William R.

Publications and source records attributed to Cotton, William R..

Large Eddy Simulation of Cirrus Clouds

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) with mesoscale interactive nested-grids and a Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) version of RAMS, coupled to two-moment microphysics and a new two-stream radiative code were used to investigate the dynamic, microphysical, and radiative aspects of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event. Wu (1998) describes the results of that research in full detail and is enclosed as Appendix 1. The mesoscale nested grid simulation successfully reproduced the large scale circulation as compared to the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System's (MAPS) analyses and other observations. Three cloud bands which match nicely to the three cloud lines identified in an observational study (Mace et al., 1995) are predicted on Grid #2 of the nested grids, even though the mesoscale simulation predicts a larger west-east cloud width than what was observed. Large-eddy simulations (LES) were performed to study the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes in the 26 November 1991 FIRE 11 cirrus event. The LES model is based on the RAMS version 3b developed at Colorado State University. It includes a new radiation scheme developed by Harrington (1997) and a new subgrid scale model developed by Kosovic (1996). The LES model simulated a single cloud layer for Case 1 and a two-layer cloud structure for Case 2. The simulations demonstrated that latent heat release can play a significant role in the formation and development of cirrus clouds. For the thin cirrus in Case 1, the latent heat release was insufficient for the cirrus clouds to become positively buoyant. However, in some special cases such as Case 2, positively buoyant cells can be embedded within the cirrus layers. These cells were so active that the rising updraft induced its own pressure perturbations that affected the cloud evolution. Vertical profiles of the total radiative and latent heating rates indicated that for well developed, deep, and active cirrus clouds, radiative cooling and latent heating could be comparable in magnitude in the cloudy layer. This implies that latent heating cannot be neglected in the construction of a cirrus cloud model. The probability density function (PDF) of w was analyzed to assist in the parameterization of cloud-scale velocities in large-scale models. For the more radiatively-driven, thin cirrus case, the PDFs are approximately Gaussian. However, in the interior of the deep, convectively unstable case, the PDFs of w are multi-modal and very broad, indicating that parameterizing cloud-scale motions for such clouds can be very challenging. The results of this research are described in detail in a paper submitted to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu and Cotton, 1999), which is enclosed as Appendix 2. Using soundings extracted from a mesoscale simulation of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, the radiative effects on vapor deposition/sublimation of ice crystals was studied using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM) version of RAMS, coupled to an explicit bin-resolving microphysics. The CRM simulations of the November 26, 1991 cirrus event demonstrate that the radiative impact on the diffusional growth (or sublimation) of ice crystals is significant. In this case, the ice particles experienced radiative warming. Model results show that radiative feedbacks in the diffusional growth of ice particles can be very complex. Radiative warming of an ice particle will restrict the particle's diffusional growth. In the case of radiative warming, ice particles larger than a certain size will experience so much radiative warming that surface ice saturation vapor pressures become large enough to cause sublimation of the larger crystals, while smaller crystals are growing by vapor deposition. However, ice mass production can be enhanced in the case of radiative cooling of an ice particle. For the November 26, 1991 cirrus event, radiative feedback results in significant reduction in the total ice mass, especially in the production of large ice crystals, and consequently, both radiative and dynamic properties of the cirrus cloud are significantly affected. A complete description of this research has been submitted as a paper to the Journal of Atmospheric Science (Wu et al., 1999), and included as Appendix 3.

Wu, Ting↗

Regional-scale flows in mountainous terrain. Part 1: A numerical and observational comparison

This study uses observed data and a numerical simulation to examine the generation of thermally driven flows across the Colorado mountain barrier on meso-beta to meso-alpha scales. The observations were collected from remote surface observing systems at exposed mountaintop locations throughout the state of Colorado, over the summers of 1984-88, as part of the Rocky Mountain Peaks Experiment (ROMPEX). The data show the development of a recurrent circulation system across the Colorado mountain barrier, operating on a diurnal timescale. From the observations, the basic structure of the flow system appears as a daytime inflow toward the highest terrain, and a nocturnal outflow away from it. However, when examined in detail, the flow system exhibits more unusual behavior, especially west of the barrier crest. Here, winds in the early evening are occasionally observed to onset abruptly from an easterly direction, generally counter to the upper-level winds. Observations from ROMPEX for 26 August 1985 are used to provide comparison data for a numerical simulation with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). This three-dimensional case study experiment is initialized with data from the National Meteorological Center and incorporates two-way interactive grid nesting. From the observed data and case study simulation, four distinct phases of the regional-scale circulation system have been identified. In the development phase, a deep mountain-plains solenoid is generated through terrain heating along the Front Range. This circulation system transforms in the late afternoon transition phase into a westward-propagating density current (WPDC). The third phase, called the 'density-current propagation phase,' occurs as the WPDC moves westward across the mountains, leaving in its wake strong southeasterly flow at the mountaintop level. This current appears to be the cause of the peculiar easterly component winds found in the ROMPEX mountaintop observations along the western slope. In the final late-night adjustment phase, the WPDC dissipates near the western edge of the Colorado mountains and steady southerly flow evolves over the high mountain terrain. This southerly flow is the steady response to the differential heating that develops between the low-lying plains and the intermountain region.

Bossert, James E.↗

Mesoscale simulations of the November 25-26 and December 5-6 cirrus cases using the RAMS model

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), developed at Colorado State University, was used during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) 2 (13 Nov. through 6 Dec. 1991) to provide real time forecasts of cirrus clouds. Forecasts were run once a day, initializing with the 0000 UTC dataset provided by NOAA (Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS)). In order to obtain better agreement with observations, a second set of simulations were done for the FIRE 2 cases that occurred on 25-26 Nov. and 5-6 Dec. In this set of simulations, a more complex radiation scheme was used, the Chen/Cotton radiation scheme, along with the nucleation of ice occurring at ice supersaturations as opposed to nucleation occurring at water supersaturations that was done in the actual forecast version. The runs using these more complex schemes took longer wall clock time (7-9 hours for the actual forecasts as compared to 12-14 hrs for the runs using the more complex schemes) however, the final results of the simulations were definitely improved upon. Comparisons between these two sets of simulations are given. Now underway are simulations of these cases using a closed analytical solution for the auto-conversion of ice from a pristine ice class (sizes less than about 50 microns in effective diameter) to a snow class (effective diameters on the order of several hundred microns). This solution is employed along with a new scheme for the nucleation of ice crystals due to Meyers et al and Demott et al. The scheme is derived assuming complete gamma distributions for both the pristine and snow classes. The time rate of change of the number concentration and mass mixing-ratio of each distribution is found by calculating either the flux of crystals that grow beyond a certain critical diameter by vapor deposition in an ice supersaturated regime or by calculating the flux of crystals that evaporate to sizes below that same critical effective diameter.

Harrington, J. L.↗

Numerical simulation and analysis of a prefrontal squall line. I - Observations and basic simulation results. II - Propagation of the squall line as an internal gravity wave

Results of an observational and numerical study of the squall line that occurred on June 17-18, 1978, are presented. This squall line was initially triggered by the strong surface convergence along a cold front and stretched from Illinois to the Texas Panhandle. The squall line was aligned with the surface front during its initial development, but then propagated faster than the front, resulting in a separation of approximately 200 km by 0300 UTC and 300-400 km by 0600 UTC. The Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System is used to model the squall-line development and propagation. Results are described from several experiments that tested the sensitivity to the use of the Kuo-type cumulus parameterization scheme and grid-scale microphysical processes. The movement of the squall line in the model is shown to be due to the propagation of a deep tropospheric internal gravity wave in a CISK-like process. The thermal and dynamic perturbations associated with the hypothesized wave are shown to be consistent with internal gravity wave theory.

Cram, Jennifer M.↗

Final results of an experiment in operational forecasting of sea breeze thunderstorms using a mesoscale numerical model

Sea breeze thunderstorms during quiescent synoptic conductions account for 40 percent of Florida rainfall, and are the dominant feature of April-October weather at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). An effort is presently made to assess the feasibility of a mesoscale numerical model in improving the point-specific thunderstorm forecasting accuracy at the KSC, in the 2-12 hour time frame. Attention is given to the Applied Regional Atmospheric Modeling System.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

A two-dimensional numerical investigation of the interaction between sea breezes and deep convection over the Florida peninsula

The Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System is used to investigate the interaction between sea breezes and deep convection over the Florida peninsula, and it is shown that this model can simulate the broad features of the three characteristic types of convection systems classified by Blanchard and Lopez (1985). In sensitivity tests performed for a variety of wind and thermodynamic profiles and for different soil-moisture contents, it was found that increases in the low-level temperature and in moisture content speeded up the development of convection. It was found that the dry-soil simulation produced rapidly developing sea breezes that moved inland quickly, while the moist soil case produced a much more slowly developing sea breeze. The total rainfall over the peninsula for the dry-soil case was greater than for the moist soil; it is suggested that the enhanced surface heat fluxes for the dry soil case create stronger low-level convergence over the peninsula (than in the moist-soil case) to force the convection.

Nicholls, Melville E.↗

Cirrus cloud spectra and layers observed during the FIRE and GASP projects

A general characterization is developed for cirrus clouds in terms of their spectra, shapes, optical thicknesses, and radiative properties for use in numerical models. Data sets from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Project (GASP) of the upper troposphere and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) are combined and analyzed to study general traits of cirrus clouds. A definition is given for 2D turbulence, and the GASP and FIRE data sets are examined with respect to cirrus layers and entrainment and to dominant turbulent scales. The approach employs conditional sampling in cloudy and clear air, power-spectral analysis, and mixing-line-type diagrams. Evidence is given for a well mixed cloud deck and for the tendency of cirrus to be formed in multilayer structures. The results are of use in mesoscale and global circulation models which predict cirrus, in small-scale cirrus modeling, and in studying the role of gravity waves in the horizontal structure of upper tropospheric clouds.

Flatau, Piotr J.↗

A diagnostic study of vertical fluxes in cumulus clouds using model output data

Midlatitude supercell, Florida sea-breeze convection, and tropical squall line simulations were performed using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System which employed the non-hydrostatic, fully compressible, equations with parameterized microphysics. The time evolution of the vertical velocity variance (VVV) is especially interesting since it is a measure of the strength of convection. This variance exhibits striking similarities when analyzed for the aforementioned cases which may indicate that all convection is fundamentally similar. Vertical mass and moisture covariances appear strongly linked to VVV, so it may be the appropriate variable on which to base a hybrid cumulus parameterization scheme.

Weissbluth, M. J.↗

Meso-beta-scale characteristics of an episode of meso-alpha-scale convective complexes

Cotton et al. (1983) and Wetzel et al. (1983) investigated a complex mesoscale convective complex (MCC) that occurred within an eight-day episode during which one or more MCCs occurred each evening over the central U.S. This paper is an expanded study of that MCC episode, concentrating on various phenomenological meso-beta-scale aspects. The meso-beta-scale substructure and evolution of the larger MCCs are qualitatively described, emphasizing a degree of similarity that expands previous conceptual models of the MCC life cycle. Quantitative hourly precipitation characteristics of the episode's MCCs are described, revealing a characteristic precipitation signature in relation to their satellite appearance.

Mcanelly, Ray L.↗