Search NASA⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Cox, Christopher

Publications and source records attributed to Cox, Christopher.

Supporting Advancement in Weather and Water Prediction in the Upper Colorado River Basin: The SPLASH Campaign

Water is a critical resource that causes significant challenges to inhabitants of the western United States. These challenges are likely to intensify as the result of expanding population and climate-related changes that act to reduce runoff in areas of complex terrain. To better understand the physical processes that drive the transition of mountain precipitation to streamflow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has deployed suites of environmental sensors throughout the East River watershed of Colorado as part of the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH). This includes surface-based sensors over a network of five different observing sites, airborne platforms, and sophisticated remote sensors to provide detailed information on spatiotemporal variability of key parameters. With a 2-yr deployment, these sensors offer detailed insight into precipitation, the lower atmosphere, and the surface, and support the development of datasets targeting improved prediction of weather and water. Initial datasets have been published and are laying a foundation for improved characterization of physical processes and their interactions driving mountain hydrology, evaluation and improvement of numerical prediction tools, and educational activities. SPLASH observations contain a depth and breadth of information that enables a variety of atmospheric and hydrological science analyses over the coming years that leverage collaborations between national laboratories, academia, and stakeholders, including industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snowfall and snow accumulation during the MOSAiC winter and spring seasons

Data from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition allowed us to investigate the temporal dynamics of snowfall, snow accumulation and erosion in great detail for almost the whole accumulation season (November 2019 to May 2020). We computed cumulative snow water equivalent (SWE) over the sea ice based on snow depth and density retrievals from a SnowMicroPen and approximately weekly measured snow depths along fixed transect paths. We used the derived SWE from the snow cover to compare with precipitation sensors installed during MOSAiC. The data were also compared with ERA5 reanalysis snowfall rates for the drift track. We found an accumulated snow mass of 38 mm SWE between the end of October 2019 and end of April 2020. The initial SWE over first-year ice relative to second-year ice increased from 50 % to 90 % by end of the investigation period. Further, we found that the Vaisala Present Weather Detector 22, an optical precipitation sensor, and installed on a railing on the top deck of research vessel Polarstern, was least affected by blowing snow and showed good agreements with SWE retrievals along the transect. On the contrary, the OTT Pluvio 2 pluviometer and the OTT Parsivel 2 laser disdrometer were largely affected by wind and blowing snow, leading to too high measured precipitation rates. These are largely reduced when eliminating drifting snow periods in the comparison. ERA5 reveals good timing of the snowfall events and good agreement with ground measurements with an overestimation tendency. Retrieved snowfall from the ship-based K a -band ARM zenith radar shows good agreements with SWE of the snow cover and differences comparable to those of ERA5. Based on the results, we suggest the K a -band radar-derived snowfall as an upper limit and the present weather detector on RV Polarstern as a lower limit of a cumulative snowfall range. Based on these findings, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 72 to 107 mm and a precipitation mass loss of the snow cover due to erosion and sublimation as between 47 % and 68 %, for the time period between 31 October 2019 and 26 April 2020. Extending this period beyond available snow cover measurements, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 98–114 mm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effect of entrance flow development on vortex formation and wall shear stress in a curved artery model

In this work, we numerically investigate the effect of entrance condition on the spatial and temporal evolution of multiple three-dimensional vortex pairs and the wall shear stress distribution in a curved artery model. We perform this study using a Newtonian blood-analog fluid subjected to a pulsatile flow with two inflow conditions. The first flow condition is fully developed while the second condition is undeveloped (i.e., uniform). We discuss the connection along the axial direction between regions of organized vorticity observed at various cross sections of the model and compare results between the different entrance conditions. We model a human artery with a simple, rigid 180° curved pipe with a circular cross section and constant curvature, neglecting the effects of taper, torsion, and elasticity. Numerical results are computed from a discontinuous high-order spectral element flow solver. The flow rate used in this study is physiological. We observe differences in secondary flow patterns, especially during the deceleration phase of the physiological waveform where multiple vortical structures of both Dean-type and Lyne-type coexist. The results indicate that decreased axial velocities under an undeveloped condition produce smaller secondary flows that ultimately inhibit growth of any interior flow vortices. We highlight the effect of the entrance condition on the formation of these structures and subsequent appearance of abnormal inner wall shear stresses, which suggest there may be a lower prevalence of cardiovascular disease in curved arteries where the flow is rather undeveloped—a potentially physiologically significant result to help understand the influence of blood flow development on disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Field Campaign Report)

The Arctic is rapidly changing, and these changes have substantial societal relevance. First, arctic change is a leading sign of global change, as the warming observed in the Arctic is 2-3 times faster than observed across the rest of the globe. This so-called arctic amplification is due to numerous feedbacks, including those linked to the declining sea ice. Broad arctic changes are also hypothesized to be related to shifts in large-scale circulation patterns that may have implications for mid-latitude weather and ocean circulation. Arctic change is further affecting the oceans through acidification that threatens food supplies. Declining sea ice also opens the Arctic for new resource development, shipping routes, tourism, and other commercial activities. Lastly, the changing Arctic is a hotbed for geopolitical challenges as nations vie for influence and control of this resource-rich and newly accessible region. Clearly the Arctic and its changes are playing a huge role in our Earth both from a geophysical and socio-political standpoint. To navigate, manage, and respond to the challenges associated with arctic change requires a vastly improved understanding of the coupled arctic system, and the drivers and implications of these changes. It is essential to better understand the physical basis for why the arctic sea ice is declining, the associated feedbacks that work to amplify or modulate this decline, and the myriad ways that the Earth system is responding. As a result of these changes and uncertainties, there are increasing societal needs for improved model predictive skill in the Arctic, to address pressing gaps in global climate prediction, to advance forecast skills for regional and hemispheric weather and sea ice, and to ensure robust ecosystem models that realistically link physical and biological systems. To fulfill these core needs requires new, sophisticated, and cross-cutting observations within the rapidly changing arctic ice pack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-Variable Gravity and Ocean Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such gravity variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique for the past quarter century, particularly in 52, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. 52 undergoes a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle, but large interannual anomalies have been observed, notably during 1998-2002. Intriguing evidences for the cause of the latter have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and perhaps in related land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Without firm estimates for the steric effects (which have no gravity signal), we will point out possible underestimation of OGCMs with respect to temporal variabilities. Besides J2, SLR also derived time series for other low-degree gravity components. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, there is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El Nino/La Nina. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations, and anticipate the utility of GRACE-type space gravity observations with much higher spatial resolution.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Non-seasonal Gravitational Effects of Interannual Meteorological Oscillations in Atmosphere and Ocean

Via mass transport, the interannual meteorological oscillations (ENSO, NAO, etc.) produce slight variations in the global gravitational field, which can be observed by satellite laser ranging (SLR) and anticipated space missions such as GRACE. The meteorological oscillation modes are identified using empirical orthogonal function and principal component decomposition using de-seasoned surface fields produced from the 40-years of NCEP reanalysis. This decompositional analysis requires an accounting for issues associated with area-weighting and non-zero mean. The atmospheric contributions to gravitational variation, mode by mode and in combinations, are then computed via regional integration. To address the corresponding oceanic contributions, we examine the output of the numerical POCM ocean circulation model (1992-1998) in two ways: ocean bottom pressure field and ocean surface topography minus steric effect. The resulting lowest-degree Stokes coefficients for both NCEP reanalysis and POCM are then compared with space geodetic SLR observations, to identify the importance of each meteorological oscillations in gravitational variation signals.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗