In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. Using National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) meteorological reanalysis data, we have developed several measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. These measures include daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily maximum heat indices and a new heat stress variable called Net Daily Heat Stress (NDHS) that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. All output has been created on the NLDAS 1/8 degree (approximately 12 km) grid and aggregated to the county level, which is the preferred geographic scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics have been made available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. We have examined the relationship between excessive heat events, as defined in eight different ways from the various daily heat metrics, and heat-related and all-cause mortality defined in CDC's National Center for Health Statistics 'Multiple Causes of Death 1999-2010' dataset. To do this, we linked daily, county-level heat mortality counts with EHE occurrence based on each of the eight EHE definitions by region and nationally for the period 1999-2010. The objectives of this analysis are to determine (1) whether heat-related deaths can be clearly tied to excessive heat events, (2) what time lags are critical for predicting heat-related deaths, and (3) which of the heat metrics correlates best with mortality in each US region. Results show large regional differences in the correlations between heat and mortality. Also, the heat metric that provides the best indicator of mortality varied by region. Results from this research will potentially lead to improvements in our ability to anticipate and mitigate any significant impacts of extreme heat events on health.

heat↗

NASA NTRS2014

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Estimating Ground-Level PM(sub 2.5) Concentrations in the Southeastern United States Using MAIAC AOD Retrievals and a Two-Stage Model

Previous studies showed that fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5), particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) is associated with various health outcomes. Ground in situ measurements of PM(sub 2.5) concentrations are considered to be the gold standard, but are time-consuming and costly. Satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) products have the potential to supplement the ground monitoring networks to provide spatiotemporally-resolved PM(sub 2.5) exposure estimates. However, the coarse resolutions (e.g., 10 km) of the satellite AOD products used in previous studies make it very difficult to estimate urban-scale PM(sub 2.5) characteristics that are crucial to population-based PM(sub 2.5) health effects research. In this paper, a new aerosol product with 1 km spatial resolution derived by the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was examined using a two-stage spatial statistical model with meteorological fields (e.g., wind speed) and land use parameters (e.g., forest cover, road length, elevation, and point emissions) as ancillary variables to estimate daily mean PM(sub 2.5) concentrations. The study area is the southeastern U.S., and data for 2003 were collected from various sources. A cross validation approach was implemented for model validation. We obtained R(sup 2) of 0.83, mean prediction error (MPE) of 1.89 micrograms/cu m, and square root of the mean squared prediction errors (RMSPE) of 2.73 micrograms/cu m in model fitting, and R(sup 2) of 0.67, MPE of 2.54 micrograms/cu m, and RMSPE of 3.88 micrograms/cu m in cross validation. Both model fitting and cross validation indicate a good fit between the dependent variable and predictor variables. The results showed that 1 km spatial resolution MAIAC AOD can be used to estimate PM(sub 2.5) concentrations.

aerosol optical depth↗

NASA NTRS2012

SERVIR and Public Health

Servir is a NASA-USAID partnership to improve environmental management and resilience to climate change by strengthening the capacity of governments and other key stakeholders to integrate Earth observations into development decision-making

Moreno-Madrinan, Max J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Results from Assimilating AMSR-E Soil Moisture Estimates into a Land Surface Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter in the Land Information System

Improve simulations of soil moisture/temperature, and consequently boundary layer states and processes, by assimilating AMSR-E soil moisture estimates into a coupled land surface-mesoscale model Provide a new land surface model as an option in the Land Information System (LIS)

Blankenship, Clay B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Exploiting Satellite Remote-Sensing Data in Fine Particulate Matter Characterization for Serving the Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN): The HELIX-Atlanta Experience and NPOESS Implications

As part of the U.S. National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) led a project in collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects were conducted to develop methods to better characterize exposure; link health and environmental datasets; and analyze spatial/temporal relationships. This paper describes and demonstrates different techniques for surfacing daily environmental hazards data of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM(sub 2.5) for the purpose of integrating respiratory health and environmental data for the CDC's pilot study of HELIX-Atlanta. It describes a methodology for estimating ground-level continuous PM(sub 2.5) concentrations using spatial surfacing techniques and leveraging NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data to complement the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground observation data. The study used measurements of ambient PM(sub 2.5) from the EPA database for the year 2003 as well as PM(sub 2.5) estimates derived from NASA's MODIS data. Hazard data have been processed to derive the surrogate exposure PM(sub 2.5) estimates. The paper has shown that merging MODIS remote sensing data with surface observations of PM(sub 2.5), may provide a more complete daily representation of PM(sub 2.5), than either data set alone would allow, and can reduce the errors in the PM(sub 2.5) estimated surfaces. Future work in this area should focus on combining MODIS column measurements with profile information provided by satellites like the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). The Visible Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and the Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS) NPOESS sensors will provide first-order information on aerosol particle size and are anticipated to provide information on aerosol products at higher resolution and accuracy than MODIS. Use of the NPOESS remote sensing data should result in more robust remotely sensed data that can be coupled with the methods discussed in this paper to generate surface concentrations of PM(2.5) for linkage with health data in Environmental Public Health Tracking.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

NASA NTRS2008

High-Resolution Specification of the Land and Ocean Surface for Improving Regional Mesoscale Model Predictions

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many meteorological processes. High-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), soil temperature and moisture content, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of sensible weather. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has been conducting separate studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land-surface initialization data from the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS) on subsequent WRF forecasts, as well as the influence of initializing WRF with SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument. This current project addresses the combined impacts of using high-resolution lower boundary data over both land (LIS data) and water (MODIS SSTs) on the subsequent daily WRF forecasts over Florida during May 2004. For this experiment, the WRF model is configured to run on a nested domain with 9- km and 3-kin grid spacing, centered on the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. A control configuration of WRF is established to take all initial condition data from the NCEP Eta model. Meanwhile, two WRF experimental runs are configured to use high-resolution initialization data from (1) LIS land-surface data only, and (2) a combination of LIS data and high-resolution MODIS SST composites. The experiment involves running 24-hour simulations of the control WRF configuration, the MS-initialized WRF, and the LIS+MODIS-initialized WRF daily for the entire month of May 2004. All atmospheric data for initial and boundary conditions for the Control, LIS, and LIS+MODIS runs come from the NCEP Eta model on a 40-km grid. Verification statistics are generated at land surface observation sites and buoys, and the impacts of the high-resolution lower boundary data on the development and evolution of mesoscale circulations such as sea and land breezes are examined, This paper will present the results of these WRF modeling experiments using LIS and MODIS lower boundary datasets over the Florida peninsula during May 2004.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Methods for Characterizing Fine Particulate Matter Using Satellite Remote-Sensing Data and Ground Observations: Potential Use for Environmental Public Health Surveillance

This study describes and demonstrates different techniques for surfacing daily environmental / hazards data of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) for the purpose of integrating respiratory health and environmental data for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC s) pilot study of Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX)-Atlanta. It described a methodology for estimating ground-level continuous PM2.5 concentrations using B-Spline and inverse distance weighting (IDW) surfacing techniques and leveraging National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data to complement The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground observation data. The study used measurements of ambient PM2.5 from the EPA database for the year 2003 as well as PM2.5 estimates derived from NASA s satellite data. Hazard data have been processed to derive the surrogate exposure PM2.5 estimates. The paper has shown that merging MODIS remote sensing data with surface observations of PM2.5 not only provides a more complete daily representation of PM2.5 than either data set alone would allow, but it also reduces the errors in the PM2.5 estimated surfaces. The results of this paper have shown that the daily IDW PM2.5 surfaces had smaller errors, with respect to observations, than those of the B-Spline surfaces in the year studied. However the IDW mean annual composite surface had more numerical artifacts, which could be due to the interpolating nature of the IDW that assumes that the maxima and minima can occur only at the observation points. Finally, the methods discussed in this paper improve temporal and spatial resolutions and establish a foundation for environmental public health linkage and association studies for which determining the concentrations of an environmental hazard such as PM2.5 with good accuracy levels is critical.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Use of GIS and Remotely Sensed Data in Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT): The HELIX-Atlanta Experience

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project in collaboration with the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta, GA. Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(sub 2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(sub 2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in ongoing surveillance. NASA/MSFC is working with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) concentrations in a Geographic Information System (GIS) that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma on the aggregated grid level as well as the individual level at the geographic locations of the patients' residences.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Atlanta Urban Heat Island Mitigation and Air Quality Modeling Project: How High-Resoution Remote Sensing Data Can Improve Air Quality Models

The Atlanta Urban Heat Island and Air Quality Project had its genesis in Project ATLANTA (ATlanta Land use Analysis: Temperature and Air quality) that began in 1996. Project ATLANTA examined how high-spatial resolution thermal remote sensing data could be used to derive better measurements of the Urban Heat Island effect over Atlanta. We have explored how these thermal remote sensing, as well as other imaged datasets, can be used to better characterize the urban landscape for improved air quality modeling over the Atlanta area. For the air quality modeling project, the National Land Cover Dataset and the local scale Landpro99 dataset at 30m spatial resolutions have been used to derive land use/land cover characteristics for input into the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model that is one of the foundations for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to assess how these data can improve output from CMAQ. Additionally, land use changes to 2030 have been predicted using a Spatial Growth Model (SGM). SGM simulates growth around a region using population, employment and travel demand forecasts. Air quality modeling simulations were conducted using both current and future land cover. Meteorological modeling simulations indicate a 0.5 C increase in daily maximum air temperatures by 2030. Air quality modeling simulations show substantial differences in relative contributions of individual atmospheric pollutant constituents as a result of land cover change. Enhanced boundary layer mixing over the city tends to offset the increase in ozone concentration expected due to higher surface temperatures as a result of urbanization.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Simulation of Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies in Atlanta, GA Using High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data Set to Enhance Meteorological Modeling

The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) and associated land surface parameters in meteorological models at all scales has a major influence on modeled surface energy fluxes and boundary layer states. In urban areas, accurate representation of the land surface may be even more important than in undeveloped regions due to the large heterogeneity within the urban area. Deficiencies in the characterization of the land surface related to the spatial or temporal resolution of the data, the number of LULC classes defined, the accuracy with which they are defined, or the degree of heterogeneity of the land surface properties within each class may degrade the performance of the models. In this study, an experiment was conducted to test a new high-resolution LULC data set for meteorological simulations for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area using a mesoscale meteorological model and to evaluate the effects of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies on modeled meteorology for 2030. Simulation results showed that use of the new LULC data set reduced a major deficiency of the land use data used previously, specifically the poor representation of urban and suburban land use. Performance of the meteorological model improved substantially, with the overall daytime cold bias reduced by over 30%. UHI mitigation strategies were projected to offset much of a predicted urban warming between 2000 and 2030. In fact, for the urban core, the cooling due to UHI mitigation strategies was slightly greater than the warming associated with urbanization over this period. For the larger metropolitan area, cooling only partially offset the projected warming trend.

Crosson, William L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Converting Soil Moisture Observations to Effective Values for Improved Validation of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

We compare soil moisture retrieved with an inverse algorithm with observations of mean moisture in the 0-6 cm soil layer. A significant discrepancy is noted between the retrieved and observed moisture. Using emitting depth functions as weighting functions to convert the observed mean moisture to observed effective moisture removes nearly one-half of the discrepancy noted. This result has important implications in remote sensing validation studies.

Laymon, Charles A.↗