The Hazardous km-sized NEOs of the Next Thousands of Years
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Daniel J. Scheeres.
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In early 2019, the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft discovered small particles being ejected from the surface of the near-Earth asteroid Bennu. Although they were seen to be ejected at slow speeds, on the order of tens of cm/s, a number of particles were surprisingly seen to orbit for multiple revolutions and days, which requires a dynamical mechanism to quickly and substantially modify the orbit to prevent re-impact upon their first periapse passage. This paper demonstrates that, based on simulations constrained by the conditions of the observed events, the combined effects of gravity, solar radiation pressure, and thermal radiation pressure from Bennu can produce many sustained orbits for ejected particles. Furthermore, the simulated populations exhibit two interesting phenomena that could play an important role in the geophysical evolution of bodies such as Bennu. First, small particles (< 1 cm radius) are preferentially removed from the system, which could lead to a deficit of such particles on the surface. Second, re-impacting particles preferentially land near or on the equatorial bulge of Bennu. Over time, this can lead to crater in-filling and growth of the equatorial radius without requiring landslides.
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The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was chartered by the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD), with support from the National Science Foundation, to conduct a new decadal survey to develop a comprehensive science and mission strategy for planetary science (1). The survey was tasked to determine the current state of knowledge and to identify the most important scientific questions to be addressed in astrobiology and planetary science during the upcoming decade of 2023 - 2032. For the first time, the decadal survey also included and addressed the topic of planetary defense, now recognized as a key element of NASA’s planetary science activities under the direction of NASA’s SMD Planetary Defense Coordination Office. The topic of planetary defense was included in the decadal survey as a dedicated chapter, divided into five sections based on the framework from the U.S. National NEO Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (2). These sections discussed: NEO Detection, Tracking, and Characterization NEO Modelling, Prediction, and Integration NEO Deflection and Disruption Missions International Cooperation on NEO Preparation NEO Impact Emergency Procedures and Action Protocols Content of these sections included identifying the activities, ground- and space-based assets, facilities, resources, technologies, and missions that should be considered to enable NEO preparedness over the next decade. Supporting inputs to this chapter involved contributions from submitted white papers authored by many members of the NEO science and planetary defense communities. In addition, a planetary defense rapid mission architecture study commissioned by the decadal survey small bodies panel and led by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory examined several different types of in-situ characterization and mitigation demonstration missions. All of this input contributed to the formulation of 42 findings and 11 recommendations that suggest a path forward for increasing our understanding of the NEO population and their associated physical characteristics, modelling the impact probabilities and hazard potential of these objects, and implementing plans to develop and test NEO impact mitigation capabilities. Including planetary defense in the decadal survey has helped sharpen the focus on this international issue and provided key inputs for stakeholders and decision makers to consider when developing future planetary defense-related activities. Such information is vital for developing a long-term integrated planetary defense capability able to protect humanity in the decades to come.
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