Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Danielle E Moser.
The purpose of this document is to provide a forecast of major meteor shower activity in low Earth orbit (LEO). Most major showers are expected to exhibit typical activity, but the Andromedids, Aurigids, and “Finlayids” (a possible new shower originating from comet 15P/Finlay) may produce outbursts.
NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) produces an annual meteor shower forecast in order to help spacecraft operators assess the risk posed by meteoroid streams. Previously, this forecast focused on the International Space Station and therefore reported meteoroid fluxes and enhancement factors at an orbital altitude of 400 km. This paper presents an updated forecast algorithm that has an improved calculation of the flux enhancement produced by showers and can calculate fluxes at any selected Earth or lunar orbital altitude. Finally, we discuss and generate forecasted fluxes for the 2018 Draconid meteor shower, which is expected to produce meteoroid flux enhancements near the Sun-Earth L1 and L2 Lagrange points but not at Earth.