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Daugherty, John R.

Publications and source records attributed to Daugherty, John R..

Use of the surface wind field as a predictor of thunderstorms and cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

The convergence-lightning nowcasting method that began to be operationally tested and evaluated by USAF personnel at the KSC in 1986 uses surface convergence, especially the areal average, to identify the potential for new thunderstorm growth. When this areal method fails, normalized cell convergence, which is defined as the integral of cellular convergence with respect to its area, can be used as a complementary technique in association with the areal one. A detailed examination is conducted for one day, and the relationship of normalized cell convergence to lightning flash counts is examined in a 68-day ensemble.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

Short-term forecasting of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center, based on the surface wind field

Techniques incorporating wind convergence that can be used for the short-term prediction of thunderstorm development are described. With these techniques, the convergence signal is sensed by the wind network array 15 to 90 min before actual storm development. Particular attention is given to the convergence cell technique (which has been applied at the Kennedy Space Center) where each convective region is analyzed independently. It is noted that, while the monitoring of areal and cellular convergence can be used to help locate the seeds of developing thunderstorms and pinpoint the lightning threat areas, this forecasting aid cannot be used in isolation.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

A composite study of Florida thunderstorms, using radar, cloud-to-ground lightning, and surface winds

Two thunderstorms occurring in Florida during the summer of 1987 are studied in order to determine the location of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning in terms of surface winds and radar reflectivity. Composites of radar, CG lightning locations, and surface winds during the development, mature, and dissipation stages of the storms are presented and analyzed. The relationship between lightning and radar reflectivity is examined. It is noted that the main CG lightning activity region is on the upshear side of the storm in the reflectivity gradient where upward motion is between the convergent gust front and reflectivity center, and lightning avoids areas of maximum reflectivity.

Watson, Andrew I.↗