Delbridge, Brent Gregory

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

The geometry of the Mach cone produced by a supersonic source is analyzed and mapped into initial conditions used in acoustic ray tracing. The resulting source model is combined with spherical geometry ray tracing methods to enable propagation simulations for infrasonic signals produced by bolides, space debris, rockets, aircraft, and other fast-than-sound sources out to typical infrasonic observation distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers. Idealized linear and parabolic trajectories typical of bolides and rockets, respectively, are used to demonstrate the calculation of regional infrasonic signals produced by such sources and characteristics of the radiated infrasonic waves are found to vary strongly with the geometry of the trajectory and atmospheric structure. Predicted regional infrasonic signals are compared with those observed from a November 2020 bolide that passed over Scandinavia using a combination of institutionally maintained infrasound stations and “citizen scientist” data from the Raspberry Shake data repository.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

The geometry of the Mach cone produced by a supersonic source is analyzed and mapped into initial conditions used in acoustic ray tracing. The resulting source model is combined with spherical geometry ray tracing methods to enable propagation simulations for infrasonic signals produced by bolides, space debris, rockets, aircraft, and other fast-than-sound sources out to typical infrasonic observation distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers. Idealized linear and parabolic trajectories typical of bolides and rockets, respectively, are used to demonstrate the calculation of regional infrasonic signals produced by such sources and characteristics of the radiated infrasonic waves are found to vary strongly with the geometry of the trajectory and atmospheric structure. Predicted regional infrasonic signals are compared with those observed from a November 2020 bolide that passed over Scandinavia using a combination of institutionally maintained infrasound stations and “citizen scientist” data from the Raspberry Shake data repository.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

A weak subducting slab at intermediate depths below northeast Japan

Knowledge of the state of stress in subducting slabs is essential for understanding their mechanical behavior and the physical processes that generate earthquakes. Here, we develop a framework which uses a high-resolution focal mechanism catalog to determine the change in the position of the neutral plane before and after the M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake to determine that the deviatoric stress within the slab at intermediate depths must be very low (~1 MPa). We show that by combining the static stress calculated from coseismic slip distributions with the stress orientations before and after the mainshock, we can determine the full deviatoric stress tensor within the subducting slab at intermediate depths. These results preclude earthquake source mechanisms that require large background driving stresses, favoring a mechanically weak subducting slab, thus providing quantitative constraints on the physical processes that generate intermediate-depth earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Error Modeling for Prompt Yield Estimation [Slides]

Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (MultiPEM) Toolbox provides a capability for post-detonation characterization focusing on yield estimation; Synthesize information from multiple sensor types; Leverage historical databases to inform statistical models; Allows for rapid or comprehensive analysis; Implemented in R code.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simultaneous creation of a large vapor plume and pumice raft by the 2021 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba shallow submarine eruption

The 12 August 2021 eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba, a shallow submarine volcano in the Izu-Bonin arc of Japan, is one of few documented submarine eruptions to make a large aerial plume and floating pumice raft. Relative to past eruptions, this event was well-covered by multiple high resolution satellite remote sensors, raising the possibility of resolving important questions about the timing of raft and plume formation, and their relationship. Here we use satellite remote sensing to assess the eruption timeline, style, rates, and products. We use the Himawari-8 satellite to assess the plume volume flux and height through time. In addition, we use a combination of ultra-high resolution satellite imagery to assess the timing and mechanisms of raft formation. We find that the 16 km eruption plume was ice-rich and conclude that the 0.1 km3 raft and eruption plume were co-genetic. Finally, we suggest that pumice clasts were delivered to the raft by tephra jets, ballistics, and near-vent fallout from the plume. Together our observations reveal that the fallout of pumice lapilli from a water-rich eruption column generated a large pumice raft.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transportable absolute yields of underground nuclear explosions. Application to the North Korean nuclear tests

The method developed and presented here improves our nuclear explosion monitoring capability by providing a new independent and transportable method to determine the explosive yields of seismically recorded events associated with foreign weapons development. Here we report new independent absolute yield and depth of burial estimates of the North Korean nuclear tests which are commensurate with previously determined source parameters. The key advantage of this method over other methods which estimate absolute explosive yields is that this method does not require any a priori calibration, and can be immediately applied to any region of interest. This method uses the source information obtained from the spectral ratios of envelopes of measured seismic coda waves to invert for model-derived yield and depth of burial. The only requirements of this method are that the region of interest must contain several (> 3) seismic sources which have been well recorded (SNR > 2) by a set of shared stations. For regions with only a few events (~ 3) and/or extremely band-limited observations for which the depth of burial is unknown, an earthquake with a known magnitude may be required to obtain an accurate and robust yield estimate.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗