Engineering topics

Deser, Clara

Publications and source records attributed to Deser, Clara.

8 records

DOE OSTI2024

Distilling the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases to Large‐Scale Low‐Frequency Surface Ocean Changes Over the Past Century

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG)—the leading drivers of the forced historical change—produce different large‐scale climate response patterns, with correlations trending from negative to positive over the past century. To understand what caused the time‐evolving comparison between GHG and AER response patterns, we apply a low‐frequency component analysis to historical surface ocean changes from CESM1 single‐forcing large‐ensemble simulations. While GHG response is characterized by its first leading mode, AER response consists of two distinct modes. The first one, featuring long‐term global AER increase and global cooling, opposes GHG response patterns up to the mid‐twentieth century. The second one, featuring multidecadal variations in AER distributions and interhemispheric asymmetric surface ocean changes, appears to reinforce the GHG warming effect over recent decades. AER thus can have both competing and synergistic effects with GHG as their emissions change temporally and spatially.

Dong, Yue↗

DOE OSTI2023

Persistent ocean anomalies as a response to Northern Hemisphere heating induced by biomass burning variability

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical forcing fields have enhanced temporal variability during the years 1997–2014 compared to earlier periods. Recent studies document that the corresponding inhomogeneous shortwave forcing over this period can cause changes in clouds, permafrost, and soil moisture, which contribute to a net terrestrial Northern Hemisphere warming relative to earlier periods. Here, we investigate the ocean response to the hemispherically asymmetric warming, using a 100-member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble forced by two different BBA emissions (CMIP6 default and temporally smoothed over 1990–2020). Differences between the two subensemble means show that ocean temperature anomalies occur during periods of high BBA variability and subsequently persist over multiple decades. In the North Atlantic, surface warming is efficiently compensated for by decreased northward oceanic heat transport due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In the North Pacific, surface warming is compensated for by an anomalous cross-equatorial cell (CEC) that reduces northward oceanic heat transport. The heat that converges in the South Pacific through the anomalous CEC is shunted into the subsurface and contributes to formation of long-lasting ocean temperature anomalies. The anomalous CEC is maintained through latitude-dependent contributions from narrow western boundary currents and basin-wide near-surface Ekman transport. Furthermore, these results indicate that interannual variability in forcing fields may significantly change the background climate state over long timescales, presenting a potential uncertainty in CMIP6-class climate projections forced without interannual variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing

Climate model simulations run under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) use an inhomogeneous biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset, which exhibits pronounced interannual variability from 1997–2014 due to the infusion of satellite data. Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) with original and smoothed CMIP6 BBA forcings, we show that the CMIP6 data inhomogeneity causes spurious decadal subarctic land warming. During years with reduced aerosol concentrations, increased solar radiation can trigger abrupt subarctic permafrost thawing, increased soil water drainage, upper soil drying, and subsequent surface warming. This slow process, which is further amplified by nonlinear cloud-aerosol interactions, cannot be completely offset during years of increased aerosol fluxes, thereby reddening surface temperature spectra in response to large-amplitude interannual aerosol forcing. More generally, our CESM2 experiments identify a pathway for generating decadal variability in high latitudes, involving interannual shortwave forcing and slow nonlinear soil responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanisms behind the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection Bias in Climate Models

Previous studies have shown that models overestimate the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific during springtime, but the underlying reasons for this bias remain unknown. Here, in this work, the relative contributions from basic-state and thermodynamic/dynamic forcing factors are disentangled through idealized experiments with the Community Earth System Model and a range of stationary wave modeling experiments. It is revealed that in CESM1 the diabatic heating biases over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-western Pacific jointly favor a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation bias to occur in the North Pacific during the springtime of El Niño (La Niña) events. On one hand, the difference in the modeled and observed climatological basic state does not lead to the bias formation directly, as the diabatic heating biases are the primary cause. On the other hand, the springtime basic state is conducive to a more vigorous stationary wave response to the biased diabatic heating than the wintertime state, and this explains why the teleconnection bias occurs during springtime but not in winter. An iterative bias-correction approach is then implemented in the atmospheric model component of CESM1 to verify the linkage between the tropical diabatic heating bias and the teleconnection bias. Moreover, this explanation is shown to be relevant in other models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as a strong relationship is found between biases in ENSO-related tropical central-western Pacific/Indian Ocean precipitation and North Pacific circulation across models in spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Separating the Influences of Low-Latitude Warming and Sea Ice Loss on Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

Abstract Analyzing a multimodel ensemble of coupled climate model simulations forced with Arctic sea ice loss using a two-parameter pattern-scaling technique to remove the cross-coupling between low- and high-latitude responses, the sensitivity to high-latitude sea ice loss is isolated and contrasted to the sensitivity to low-latitude warming. Despite some differences in experimental design, the Northern Hemisphere near-surface atmospheric sensitivity to sea ice loss is found to be robust across models in the cold season; however, a larger intermodel spread is found at the surface in boreal summer, and in the free tropospheric circulation. In contrast, the sensitivity to low-latitude warming is most robust in the free troposphere and in the warm season, with more intermodel spread in the surface ocean and surface heat flux over the Northern Hemisphere. The robust signals associated with sea ice loss include upward turbulent and longwave heat fluxes where sea ice is lost, warming and freshening of the Arctic Ocean, warming of the eastern North Pacific Ocean relative to the western North Pacific with upward turbulent heat fluxes in the Kuroshio Extension, and salinification of the shallow shelf seas of the Arctic Ocean alongside freshening in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the robust signals associated with low-latitude warming include intensified ocean warming and upward latent heat fluxes near the western boundary currents, freshening of the Pacific Ocean, salinification of the North Atlantic, and downward sensible and longwave fluxes over the ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Compensation Between Poleward Energy Transports in the Ocean and Atmosphere

The goal of our project is to investigate the degree of compensation in poleward energy transports by the atmosphere and ocean and its dependence on the time scale, latitude and background climate primarily based on a large suite of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations to test the Bjerknes compensation hypothesis. Our particular emphases are to understand: (1) robustness of the degree of the compensation across the various simulations with differing parameterizations and initial conditions, (2) the competing role of atmosphere-ocean couplings through the momentum flux and buoyancy flux in enabling or deterring the compensation, and (3) the role of compensation in the leading modes of variability in the atmosphere and ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗