Engineering topics

Drlica-Wagner, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Drlica-Wagner, A..

At least 91 records · Page 5

DOE OSTI2021

Dark energy survey year 3 results: weak lensing shape catalogue

ABSTRACT We present and characterize the galaxy shape catalogue from the first 3 yr of Dark Energy Survey (DES) observations, over an effective area of 4143 deg2 of the southern sky. We describe our data analysis process and our self-calibrating shear measurement pipeline metacalibration, which builds and improves upon the pipeline used in the DES Year 1 analysis in several aspects. The DES Year 3 weak-lensing shape catalogue consists of 100 204 026 galaxies, measured in the riz bands, resulting in a weighted source number density of neff = 5.59 gal arcmin−2 and corresponding shape noise σe = 0.261. We perform a battery of internal null tests on the catalogue, including tests on systematics related to the point spread function (PSF) modelling, spurious catalogue B-mode signals, catalogue contamination, and galaxy properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discovery of an Ultra-faint Stellar System near the Magellanic Clouds with the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey

We report the discovery of a new ultra-faint stellar system found near the Magellanic Clouds in the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey. This new system, DELVE J0155−6815 (DELVE 2), is located at a heliocentric distance of D ⊙ = 71 ± 4 kpc, which places it at a 3D physical separation of 12 ± 3 kpc from the center of the Small Magellanic Cloud and from the center of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). DELVE 2 is identified as a resolved overdensity of old (τ > 13.3 Gyr) and metal-poor ( dex) stars with a projected half-light radius of and an absolute magnitude of . The size and luminosity of DELVE 2 are consistent with both the population of recently discovered ultra-faint globular clusters and the smallest ultra-faint dwarf galaxies. However, its photometrically derived age and metallicity would place it among the oldest and most metal-poor globular clusters in the Magellanic system. In the absence of spectroscopic measurements of the system’s metallicity dispersion and internal kinematics, we are unable to conclusively classify this system at this time. DELVE 2 is detected in Gaia DR2 with a clear proper-motion signal, with multiple blue horizontal-branch stars near the centroid of the system with proper motions consistent with the systemic mean. We measure the system proper motion to be = mas yr−1. We compare the spatial position and proper motion of DELVE 2 with simulations of the accreted satellite population of the LMC and find that it is very likely to be associated with the LMC.

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DOE OSTI2021

Milky Way Satellite Census. III. Constraints on Dark Matter Properties from Observations of Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We perform a comprehensive study of Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxies to constrain the fundamental properties of dark matter (DM). This analysis fully incorporates inhomogeneities in the spatial distribution and detectability of MW satellites and marginalizes over uncertainties in the mapping between galaxies and DM halos, the properties of the MW system, and the disruption of subhalos by the MW disk. Our results are consistent with the cold, collisionless DM paradigm and yield the strongest cosmological constraints to date on particle models of warm, interacting, and fuzzy dark matter. At $95\%$ confidence, we report limits on (i) the mass of thermal relic warm DM, $m_{\rm WDM} > 6.5\ \mathrm{keV}$ (free-streaming length, $\lambda_{\rm{fs}} \lesssim 10\,h^{-1}\ \mathrm{kpc}$), (ii) the velocity-independent DM-proton scattering cross section, $\sigma_{0} < 8.8\times 10^{-29}\ \mathrm{cm}^{2}$ for a $100\ \mathrm{MeV}$ DM particle mass (DM-proton coupling, $c_p \lesssim (0.3\ \mathrm{GeV})^{-2}$), and (iii) the mass of fuzzy DM, $m_{\phi}> 2.9 \times 10^{-21}\ \mathrm{eV}$ (de Broglie wavelength, $\lambda_{\rm{dB}} \lesssim 0.5\ \mathrm{kpc}$). These constraints are complementary to other observational and laboratory constraints on DM properties.

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DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning approach to galaxy properties: joint redshift–stellar mass probability distributions with Random Forest

We demonstrate that highly accurate joint redshift–stellar mass probability distribution functions (PDFs) can be obtained using the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) algorithm, even with few photometric bands available. As an example, we use the Dark Energy Survey (DES), combined with the COSMOS2015 catalogue for redshifts and stellar masses. We build two ML models: one containing deep photometry in the griz bands, and the second reflecting the photometric scatter present in the main DES survey, with carefully constructed representative training data in each case. We validate our joint PDFs for 10 699 test galaxies by utilizing the copula probability integral transform and the Kendall distribution function, and their univariate counterparts to validate the marginals. Benchmarked against a basic set-up of the template-fitting code bagpipes, our ML-based method outperforms template fitting on all of our predefined performance metrics. In addition to accuracy, the RF is extremely fast, able to compute joint PDFs for a million galaxies in just under 6 min with consumer computer hardware. Such speed enables PDFs to be derived in real time within analysis codes, solving potential storage issues. As part of this work we have developed galpro 1, a highly intuitive and efficient python package to rapidly generate multivariate PDFs on-the-fly. galpro is documented and available for researchers to use in their cosmology and galaxy evolution studies.

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DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Optimizing the lens sample in a combined galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analysis

We investigate potential gains in cosmological constraints from the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing by optimizing the lens galaxy sample selection using information from Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data and assuming the DES Year 1 metacalibration sample for the sources. We explore easily reproducible selections based on magnitude cuts in i-band as a function of (photometric) redshift, zphot, and benchmark the potential gains against those using the well-established redMaGiC [E. Rozo et al., Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 461, 1431 (2016)MNRAA40035-871110.1093/mnras/stw1281] sample. We focus on the balance between density and photometric redshift accuracy, while marginalizing over a realistic set of cosmological and systematic parameters. Our optimal selection, the MagLim sample, satisfies i<4zphot+18 and has ∼30% wider redshift distributions but ∼3.5 times more galaxies than redMaGiC. Assuming a wCDM model (i.e. with a free parameter for the dark energy equation of state) and equivalent scale cuts to mitigate nonlinear effects, this leads to 40% increase in the figure of merit for the pair combinations of Ωm, w, and σ8, and gains of 16% in σ8, 10% in Ωm, and 12% in w. Similarly, in ΛCDM, we find an improvement of 19% and 27% on σ8 and Ωm, respectively. We also explore flux-limited samples with a flat magnitude cut finding that the optimal selection, i<22.2, has ∼7 times more galaxies and ∼20% wider redshift distributions compared to MagLim, but slightly worse constraints. We show that our results are robust with respect to the assumed galaxy bias and photometric redshift uncertainties with only moderate further gains from increased number of tomographic bins or the inclusion of bin cross-correlations, except in the case of the flux-limited sample, for which these gains are more significant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: point spread function modelling

ABSTRACT We introduce a new software package for modelling the point spread function (PSF) of astronomical images, called piff (PSFs In the Full FOV), which we apply to the first three years (known as Y3) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data. We describe the relevant details about the algorithms used by piff to model the PSF, including how the PSF model varies across the field of view (FOV). Diagnostic results show that the systematic errors from the PSF modelling are very small over the range of scales that are important for the DES Y3 weak lensing analysis. In particular, the systematic errors from the PSF modelling are significantly smaller than the corresponding results from the DES year one (Y1) analysis. We also briefly describe some planned improvements to piff that we expect to further reduce the modelling errors in future analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recommended Target Fields for Commissioning the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

The commissioning team for the Vera C. Rubin observatory is planning a set of engineering and science verification observations with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) commissioning camera and then the Rubin Observatory LSST Camera. The time frame for these observations is not yet fixed, and the commissioning team will have flexibility in selecting fields to observe. In this document, the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Commissioning Working Group presents a prioritized list of target fields appropriate for testing various aspects of DESC-relevant science performance, grouped by season for visibility from Rubin Observatory at Cerro Pachon. Our recommended fields include Deep-Drilling fields (DDFs) to full LSST depth for photo-$z$ and shape calibration purposes, HST imaging fields to full depth for deblending studies, and an $\sim$200 square degree area to 1-year depth in several filters for higher-level validation of wide-area science cases for DESC. We also anticipate that commissioning observations will be needed for template building for transient science over a broad RA range. We include detailed descriptions of our recommended fields along with associated references. We are optimistic that this document will continue to be useful during LSST operations, as it provides a comprehensive list of overlapping data-sets and the references describing them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optical follow-up of gravitational wave triggers with DECam during the first two LIGO/VIRGO observing runs

Gravitational wave (GW) events detectable by LIGO and Virgo have several possible progenitors, including black hole mergers, neutron star mergers, black hole–neutron star mergers, supernovae, and cosmic string cusps. A subset of GW events is expected to produce electromagnetic (EM) emission that, once detected, will provide complementary information about their astrophysical context. To that end, the LIGO–Virgo Collaboration (LVC) sends GW candidate alerts to the astronomical community so that searches for their EM counterparts can be pursued. The DESGW group, consisting of members of the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the LVC, and other members of the astronomical community, uses the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) to perform a search and discovery program for optical signatures of LVC GW events. DESGW aims to use a sample of GW events as standard sirens for cosmology. Due to the short decay timescale of the expected EM counterparts and the need to quickly eliminate survey areas with no counterpart candidates, it is critical to complete the initial analysis of each night’s images as quickly as possible. We discuss our search area determination, imaging pipeline, and candidate selection processes. We review results from the DESGW program during the first two LIGO–Virgo observing campaigns and introduce other science applications that our pipeline enables.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

The environment of Lyman break analogues (ELBA) survey: star-forming galaxies in small groups

ABSTRACT The environment of Lyman break analogues survey is an imaging survey of 33 deg2 of the southern sky. The survey was observed in u, g, r, and i bands with the Dark Energy Camera on the Blanco telescope. The main goal of this project is to investigate the environment of Lyman break analogues (LBAs) low-redshift (z ∼0.2) galaxies that are remarkably similar to typical star-forming galaxies at z ∼ 3. We explore whether the environment has any influence on the observed properties of these galaxies, providing valuable insight on the formation and evolution of galaxies over cosmic time. Using the nearest neighbour method, we measure the local density of each object ranging from small to large scales (clusters of galaxies). Comparing the environment around LBAs with that of the general galaxy population in the field, we conclude that LBAs, on average, populate denser regions at small scales, but are located in similar environment to other star-forming galaxies at larger cluster-like scales. This offers evidence that nearby encounters such as mergers may influence the star formation activity in LBAs, before infall on to larger galaxy clusters. We interpret this as an indication of galaxy pre-processing, in agreement with theoretical expectations for galaxies at z ∼ 2–3 where the gravitational interactions are more intense in early formation processes of these objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Statistical Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Compact Object Merger GW190814 and Dark Energy Survey Galaxies

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the gravitational wave (GW) event GW190814, which resulted from the coalescence of a 23 M ⊙ black hole with a 2.6 M ⊙ compact object, as a standard siren. No compelling electromagnetic counterpart has been identified for this event; thus our analysis accounts for thousands of potential host galaxies within a statistical framework. The redshift information is obtained from the photometric redshift (photo- z ) catalog from the Dark Energy Survey. The luminosity distance is provided by the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave sky map. Since this GW event has the second-smallest localization volume after GW170817, GW190814 is likely to provide the best constraint on cosmology from a single standard siren without identifying an electromagnetic counterpart. Furthermore, our analysis uses photo- z probability distribution functions and corrects for photo- z biases. We also reanalyze the binary black hole GW170814 within this updated framework. We explore how our findings impact the H 0 constraints from GW170817, the only GW merger associated with a unique host galaxy. From a combination of GW190814, GW170814, and GW170817, our analysis yields H 0 =72.0$_{+12}^{–8.2}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest-density interval, HDI) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20 and 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . The addition of GW190814 and GW170814 to GW170817 improves the 68% HDI from GW170817 alone by ~18%, showing how well-localized mergers without counterparts can provide a significant contribution to standard siren measurements, provided that a complete galaxy catalog is available at the location of the event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modelling the Milky Way – I. Method and first results fitting the thick disc and halo with DES-Y3 data

ABSTRACT We present a technique to fit the stellar components of the Galaxy by comparing Hess Diagrams (HDs) generated from trilegal models to real data. We apply this technique, which we call mwfitting, to photometric data from the first 3 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). After removing regions containing known resolved stellar systems such as globular clusters, dwarf galaxies, nearby galaxies, the Large Magellanic Cloud, and the Sagittarius Stream, our main sample spans a total area of ∼2300 deg2. We further explore a smaller subset (∼1300 deg2) that excludes all regions with known stellar streams and stellar overdensities. Validation tests on synthetic data possessing similar properties to the DES data show that the method is able to recover input parameters with a precision better than 3 per cent. We fit the DES data with an exponential thick disc model and an oblate double power-law halo model. We find that the best-fitting thick disc model has radial and vertical scale heights of 2.67 ± 0.09 kpc and 925 ± 40 pc, respectively. The stellar halo is fit with a broken power-law density profile with an oblateness of 0.75 ± 0.01, an inner index of 1.82 ± 0.08, an outer index of 4.14 ± 0.05, and a break at 18.52 ± 0.27 kpc from the Galactic centre. Several previously discovered stellar overdensities are recovered in the residual stellar density map, showing the reliability of mwfitting in determining the Galactic components. Simulations made with the best-fitting parameters are a promising way to predict Milky Way star counts for surveys such as the LSST and Euclid.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cosmological constraints from cluster abundances and weak lensing

In this work we perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $\sigma_8-\Omega_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4\sigma$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6\sigma$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($\lambda \ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Supernova Siblings: Assessing the Consistency of Properties of Type Ia Supernovae that Share the Same Parent Galaxies

While many studies have shown a correlation between properties of the light curves of SNe Ia and properties of their host galaxies, it remains unclear what is driving these correlations. We introduce a new direct method to study these correlations by analyzing "parent" galaxies that host multiple SNe Ia "siblings." In this study, we search the Dark Energy Survey SN sample, one of the largest samples of discovered SNe, and find eight galaxies that hosted two likely SNe Ia. Comparing the light-curve properties of these SNe and recovered distances from the light curves, we find no better agreement between properties of SNe in the same galaxy as any random pair of galaxies, with the exception of the SN light-curve stretch. We show at 2.8 σ significance that at least one-half of the intrinsic scatter of SNe Ia distance modulus residuals is not from common host properties. We also discuss the robustness with which we could make this evaluation with LSST, which will find 100 × more pairs of galaxies, and pave a new line of study on the consistency of SNe Ia in the same parent galaxies. Finally, we argue that it is unlikely that some of these SNe are actually single, lensed SN with multiple images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

STRIDES: a 3.9 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant from the strong lens system DES J0408−5354

We present a blind time-delay cosmographic analysis for the lens system DES J0408−5354. This system is extraordinary for the presence of two sets of multiple images at different redshifts, which provide the opportunity to obtain more information at the cost of increased modelling complexity with respect to previously analysed systems. We perform detailed modelling of the mass distribution for this lens system using three band Hubble Space Telescope imaging. We combine the measured time delays, line-of-sight central velocity dispersion of the deflector, and statistically constrained external convergence with our lens models to estimate two cosmological distances. We measure the ‘effective’ time-delay distance corresponding to the redshifts of the deflector and the lensed quasar |$D_{\Delta t}^{\rm eff}=$||$3382_{-115}^{+146}$| Mpc and the angular diameter distance to the deflector D_d = |$1711_{-280}^{+376}$| Mpc, with covariance between the two distances. From these constraints on the cosmological distances, we infer the Hubble constant H_0= |$74.2_{-3.0}^{+2.7}$| km s^−1 Mpc^−^1 assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmology and a uniform prior for Ω_m as |$\Omega _{\rm m} \sim \mathcal {U}(0.05, 0.5)$|⁠. This measurement gives the most precise constraint on H_0 to date from a single lens. Our measurement is consistent with that obtained from the previous sample of six lenses analysed by the H_0 Lenses in COSMOGRAIL’s Wellspring (H0LiCOW) collaboration. It is also consistent with measurements of H_0 based on the local distance ladder, reinforcing the tension with the inference from early Universe probes, for example, with 2.2σ discrepancy from the cosmic microwave background measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Studying Type II supernovae as cosmological standard candles using the Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT Despite vast improvements in the measurement of the cosmological parameters, the nature of dark energy and an accurate value of the Hubble constant (H0) in the Hubble–Lemaître law remain unknown. To break the current impasse, it is necessary to develop as many independent techniques as possible, such as the use of Type II supernovae (SNe II). The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the utility of SNe II for deriving accurate extragalactic distances, which will be an asset for the next generation of telescopes where more-distant SNe II will be discovered. More specifically, we present a sample from the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN) consisting of 15 SNe II with photometric and spectroscopic information spanning a redshift range up to 0.35. Combining our DES SNe with publicly available samples, and using the standard candle method (SCM), we construct the largest available Hubble diagram with SNe II in the Hubble flow (70 SNe II) and find an observed dispersion of 0.27 mag. We demonstrate that adding a colour term to the SN II standardization does not reduce the scatter in the Hubble diagram. Although SNe II are viable as distance indicators, this work points out important issues for improving their utility as independent extragalactic beacons: find new correlations, define a more standard subclass of SNe II, construct new SN II templates, and dedicate more observing time to high-redshift SNe II. Finally, for the first time, we perform simulations to estimate the redshift-dependent distance-modulus bias due to selection effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Milky Way Satellite Census. I. The Observational Selection Function for Milky Way Satellites in DES Y3 and Pan-STARRS DR1

We report the results of a systematic search for ultra-faint Milky Way satellite galaxies using data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and Pan-STARRS1 (PS1). Together, DES and PS1 provide multi-band photometry in optical/near-infrared wavelengths over ~80% of the sky. Our search for satellite galaxies targets ~25,000 deg$^2$ of the high-Galactic-latitude sky reaching a 10$\sigma$ point-source depth of $\gtrsim$ 22.5 mag in the $g$ and $r$ bands. While satellite galaxy searches have been performed independently on DES and PS1 before, this is the first time that a self-consistent search is performed across both data sets. We do not detect any new high-significance satellite galaxy candidates, while recovering the majority of satellites previously detected in surveys of comparable depth. We characterize the sensitivity of our search using a large set of simulated satellites injected into the survey data. We use these simulations to derive both analytic and machine-learning models that accurately predict the detectability of Milky Way satellites as a function of their distance, size, luminosity, and location on the sky. To demonstrate the utility of this observational selection function, we calculate the luminosity function of Milky Way satellite galaxies, assuming that the known population of satellite galaxies is representative of the underlying distribution. We provide access to our observational selection function to facilitate comparisons with cosmological models of galaxy formation and evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Milky Way Satellite Census -- II. Galaxy-Halo Connection Constraints Including the Impact of the Large Magellanic Cloud

The population of Milky Way (MW) satellites contains the faintest known galaxies, and thus provides essential insight into galaxy formation and dark matter microphysics. Here, we combine a model of the galaxy--halo connection with newly derived observational selection functions based on searches for satellites in photometric surveys over nearly the entire high-Galactic-latitude sky. In particular, we use cosmological zoom-in simulations of MW-like halos that include realistic Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) analogs to fit the position-dependent MW satellite luminosity function. We report decisive evidence for the statistical impact of the LMC on the MW satellite population due to an estimated $6.5\pm 1.5$ observed LMC-associated satellites, consistent with the number of LMC satellites inferred from $\textit{Gaia}$ proper motion measurements, confirming the predictions of cold dark matter models for the existence of satellites within satellite halos. Moreover, we infer that the LMC fell into the MW within the last $2\ \rm{Gyr}$ at high confidence. Based on our detailed full-sky modeling, we find that the faintest observed satellites inhabit halos with peak virial masses below $2.2\times 10^{8}\ M_{\rm{\odot}}$ at $95\%$ confidence, and we place the first robust constraints on the fraction of halos that host galaxies in this regime. We predict that the faintest detectable satellites occupy halos with peak virial masses above $10^{6}\ M_{\rm{\odot}}$, highlighting the potential for powerful galaxy formation and dark matter constraints from future dwarf galaxy searches.

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