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Dunkerton, T. J.

Publications and source records attributed to Dunkerton, T. J..

Coarse, Intermediate and High Resolution Numerical Simulations of the Transition of a Tropical Wave Critical Layer to a Tropical Storm

Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together.

Montgomery, M. T.↗

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer - Part 1

The formation of pre Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgomery, and Wang. It is shown also that low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ helps to enhance the wave signal and extend the "wave pouch" from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a focal point for diabatic merger of convective vortices and their vortical remnants. The wave pouch serves also to protect the moist air inside from dry air intrusion, providing a favorable environment for sustained deep convection. Consistent with the authors' earlier findings, the tropical storm forms near the center of the wave pouch via system-scale convergence in the lower troposphere and vorticity aggregation. Components of the vorticity balance are shown to be scale dependent, with the immediate effects of cloud processes confined more closely to the storm center than the overturning Eliassen circulation induced by diabatic heating, the influence of which extends to larger radii.

Wang, Zhuo↗

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability - Part 2

This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm's warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave's pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave's critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Wang, zhuo↗

Tropical Cyclogenesis in a Tropical Wave Critical Layer: Easterly Waves

The development of tropical depressions within tropical waves over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is usually preceded by a "surface low along the wave" as if to suggest a hybrid wave-vortex structure in which flow streamlines not only undulate with the waves, but form a closed circulation in the lower troposphere surrounding the low. This structure, equatorward of the easterly jet axis, is identified herein as the familiar critical layer of waves in shear flow, a flow configuration which arguably provides the simplest conceptual framework for tropical cyclogenesis resulting from tropical waves, their interaction with the mean flow, and with diabatic processes associated with deep moist convection. The recirculating Kelvin cat's eye within the critical layer represents a sweet spot for tropical cyclogenesis in which a proto-vortex may form and grow within its parent wave. A common location for storm development is given by the intersection of the wave's critical latitude and trough axis at the center of the cat's eye, with analyzed vorticity centroid nearby. The wave and vortex live together for a time, and initially propagate at approximately the same speed. In most cases this coupled propagation continues for a few days after a tropical depression is identified. For easterly waves, as the name suggests, the propagation is westward. It is shown that in order to visualize optimally the associated Lagrangian motions, one should view the flow streamlines, or stream function, in a frame of reference translating horizontally with the phase propagation of the parent wave. In this co-moving frame, streamlines are approximately equivalent to particle trajectories. The closed circulation is quasi-stationary, and a dividing streamline separates air within the cat's eye from air outside.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗

Evolution of potential vorticity in the winter stratosphere of January-February 1979

This paper presents observations which are derived from Nimbus 7 LIMS data. Results at 850 K, January-February 1979 are considered, taking into account an overview of the period, January 19-30, January 31-February 11, February 12-23, and a postwarming sequence. Upper stratosphere diagnostics for early February 1979 are discussed, giving attention to the geopotential at 3 mbar, the 1200 K isentropic surface, the isentropic potential vorticity at 1200 K, and isentropic parcel trajectories. The vertical structure of potential vorticity is also examined. This paper helps also to interpret the area diagnostics of Butchart and Remsberg (1985). It is pointed out that the LIMS data allow calculation of the potential vorticity distribution at higher levels of the middle atmosphere.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗

The subtropical mesospheric jet observed by the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere

Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere observations of wave-mean flow interactions in the winter 1978-1979 middle atmosphere are surveyed, extending up to 0.05 mbar. These observations describe the evolution of the subtropical mesospheric jet and its polar mixed layer. Quasi-steady mean wind patterns are disrupted by three transitions in this winter: one primarily affecting the mesosphere (December 15, 1978), a minor warming affecting both regions (January 26-February 8, 1979), and a major warming largely confined to the stratosphere (February 22, 1979). The zonally averaged flow is barotropically unstable in the wings of the subtropical mesospheric jet. All the major decelerations of the mean flow are correlated with D(F), the body force per unit mass directly attributable to planetary Rossby waves, indicating that these waves make a significant contribution to the momentum budget in the lower half of the mesosphere.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗

Climatology of the equatorial lower stratosphere

Twenty years of radiosonde data have been analyzed in an attempt to develop a latitudinal structure climatology of winds, temperature and geopotential at 30 and 50 mb in the equatorial stratosphere. The fine latitudinal resolution provided by the WMO station network reveals several interesting features in the latitudinal structure of the annual and quasi-biennial cycles which dominate this region. For example, the westerly and easterly acceleration phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation are markedly different. Westerly accelerations appear first at the equator, spreading outward with time to higher latitudes, and are more intense, on average, than the easterly accelerations. The easterly accelerations are more uniform in latitude, but less uniform in time, sometimes occurring in two stages. The quasi-biennial wind and temperature oscillations are symmetric about the equator, while the annual harmonic in zonal wind is antisymmetric about the equator, but is not proportional to the Coriolis parameters. Monthly mean zonal wind and temperature appear to be in thermal wind balance at the equator. Some brief remarks are also made concerning variability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the effects of El Chichon.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗

Propagation and selective transmission of internal gravity waves in a sudden warming

Longitudinally asymmetric features of gravity wave propagation in a sudden warming are examined theoretically, using observed geostrophic wind fields in the stratosphere for three days of winter 1979. It is shown that the wind patterns accompanying a sudden warming act to reduce, but not eliminate, quasi-stationary gravity wave propagation to the mesosphere. The onset of large-amplitude planetary waves leads to the formation of propagating zones and forbidden zones for gravity waves of intermediate horizontal scale (50-200 km). Lateral ray movement and horizontal refraction are secondary but observable effects for these waves. To the extent that these waves are excited isotropically in the troposphere, it is possible to evaluate the direction and magnitude of the average wavevector reaching the mesosphere as follows. Stationary waves with wavevector orthogonal to the local mean flow are selectively absorbed in the stratosphere, implying that for these waves the average wavevector transmitted to the mesosphere is antiparallel to the average of the mean flow orientation extrema in the underlying stratosphere.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗

Wave transience in a compressible atmosphere. I - Transient internal wave, mean-flow interaction. II - Transient equatorial waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation

Analytical and numerical solutions are obtained in an approximate quasi-linear model, to describe the way in which vertically propagating waves give rise to mean flow accelerations in an atmosphere due to the effects of wave transience. These effects in turn result from compressibility and vertical group velocity feedback, and culminate in the spontaneous formation and descent of regions of strong mean wind shear. The numerical solutions display mean flow accelerations due to Kelvin waves in the equatorial stratosphere, with wave absorption altering the transience mechanism in such significant respects as causing the upper atmospheric mean flow acceleration to be very sensitive to the precise magnitude and distribution of the damping mechanisms. The numerical simulations of transient equatorial waves in the quasi-biennial oscillation are also considered.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗