Engineering topics

Earle, Kevin

Publications and source records attributed to Earle, Kevin.

6 records

NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Mission Duration on a Mars Orbital Mission

Performance alone is insufficient to assess the total impact of changing mission parameters on a space mission concept, architecture, or campaign; the benefit, cost, and risk must also be understood. This paper examines the impact to benefit, cost, and risk of changing the total mission duration of a human Mars orbital mission. The changes in the sizing of the crew habitat, including consumables and spares, was assessed as a function of duration, including trades of different life support strategies; this was used to assess the impact on transportation system requirements. The impact to benefit is minimal, while the impact on cost is dominated by the increases in transportation costs to achieve shorter total durations. The risk is expected to be reduced by decreasing total mission duration; however, large uncertainty exists around the magnitude of that reduction.

Arney, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2016

A COTS-Style Acquisition Strategy for Human Exploration Beyond LEO

The Evolvable Mars Campaign presents a long term strategy for NASA's Journey to Mars within a capability driven framework. By comparing each element to a set of criteria, this paper reviews the potential of acquiring those capabilities using a strategy similar to the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program. The paper presents the criteria, assesses the elements against those criteria, and then discusses the suitability of each element to being developed using this acquisition strategy. Throughout the campaign, certain capabilities are well suited to being developed in this manner while others are not. This assessment is a snapshot in time, and should be revisited as the campaign and/or commercial capabilities change. This paper will explore each of these elements in the campaign and discuss how the COTS development andacquisition strategy could or could not be applied to those elements. This assessment will be based on theservices or functionality required in the campaign, and will use the best practices discussed above to create acase for or against a COTS-style acquisition strategy for each given element.

Arney, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sustaining Human Presence on Mars Using ISRU and a Reusable Lander

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of ISRU (In-Site Resource Utilization), reusability, and automation on sustaining a human presence on Mars, requiring a transition from Earth dependence to Earth independence. The study analyzes the surface and transportation architectures and compared campaigns that revealed the importance of ISRU and reusability. A reusable Mars lander, Hercules, eliminates the need to deliver a new descent and ascent stage with each cargo and crew delivery to Mars, reducing the mass delivered from Earth. As part of an evolvable transportation architecture, this investment is key to enabling continuous human presence on Mars. The extensive use of ISRU reduces the logistics supply chain from Earth in order to support population growth at Mars. Reliable and autonomous systems, in conjunction with robotics, are required to enable ISRU architectures as systems must operate and maintain themselves while the crew is not present. A comparison of Mars campaigns is presented to show the impact of adding these investments and their ability to contribute to sustaining a human presence on Mars.

Arney, Dale C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce↗

NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of Logistics in Support of a Human Lunar Outpost

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation system and lunar surface system architecture options is performed to inform NASA Constellation Program senior management on the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This paper presents an overview of the approach used to perform the campaign (strategic) analysis, with an emphasis on the logistics modeling and the impacts of logistics resupply on campaign behavior. An overview of deterministic and probabilistic analysis approaches is provided, with a discussion of the importance of each approach to understanding the integrated system behavior. The logistics required to support lunar surface habitation are analyzed from both 'macro-logistics' and 'micro-logistics' perspectives, where macro-logistics focuses on the delivery of goods to a destination and micro-logistics focuses on local handling of re-supply goods at a destination. An example campaign is provided to tie the theories of campaign analysis to results generation capabilities.

Cirillo, William↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Merrill, R. Gabe↗