Agent-based Disease Surveillance and Transmission Model
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has driven a need for models that can predict transmission among populations and test the effectiveness of proposed interventions to control it such as testing, quarantining, vaccinations, and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Some questions of interest include:1. How rapidly will the virus spread if no action is taken? 2. How frequently should people be tested and quarantined if necessary? 3. Should unvaccinated persons be tested more frequently than the vaccinated? 4. If test results are delayed, how will that affect the spread? 5. How do test false negative rates affect the overall efficacy of testing programs? 6. How do constraints on testing resources impact the overall efficacy of testing programs? 7. How does the patient’s failure to recognize COVID symptoms and quarantine affect the spread? 8. What level of vaccination coverage is needed to suppress the epidemic? 9. What is the risk of a large outbreak (probability exceeding x infections)? 10. What is the cost effectiveness of interventions (dollars per avoided infection)? This report describes the structure of a discrete event simulation model that provides actionable information to address these questions. Parameter inputs and results of analyses have been reported in briefings provided to LLNL management and are not discussed here.