Modern Permanent Magnets Chapter 10 Title: Critical materials for permanent magnets
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King, Alexander↗
Engineering topics
Eggert, Roderick G.
Publications and source records attributed to Eggert, Roderick G..
Global Electrification of Vehicles and Intertwined Material Supply Chains of Cobalt, Copper and Nickel
Electric vehicles (EVs) will be an important part of a low-carbon economy. Future EV adoption depends on overcoming multiple barriers, including charging infrastructure, sufficient electricity generation, and the availability of battery raw materials at acceptable costs, including cobalt, copper and nickel – which typically are co-produced. Various EV projections have been made, along with associated requirements for battery raw materials (demand). There have been separate assessments of the availability of raw materials (supply). However, integrated assessments of supply and demand and their interaction over time are lacking to support decision-making. Using a dynamic market model that reflects the co-produced nature of cobalt, copper and nickel production as well as recycling, we estimate global output of these three metals under different EV growth scenarios from 2020 to 2040. In this work, results suggest that starting in 2025, replacement demand for battery raw materials becomes important. Thus, estimates for future material demand that consider only demands from new EVs are incomplete and misleading. EV deployment and associated increased demand for raw materials will have a greater impact on prices for cobalt than nickel and, in turn, for nickel than copper. High EV deployment scenarios will be difficult to achieve without larger supplies of copper, nickel and cobalt than forthcoming under the conditions modeled here, which anticipates a six-year time lag between a demand increase and the expansion of metal-production capacity. Shortening battery lifetimes and improving collection and recycling rates increase secondary supply, but the extent to which these factors support additional EV deployment is mixed.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Understanding relative metal prices and availability: Combining physical and economic perspectives
Abstract Scientists typically use physical indicators, such as average crustal abundance, and energy requirements in production, as measures of the availability of mineral resources. Economists, on the other hand, typically rely on measures such as prices, and extraction costs. This study investigates the role of crustal abundance, energy requirements, and other physical indicators in determining relative metal prices. The relationship between prices, and physical indicators is estimated statistically for a sample of 22 chemical elements over the period 1970–2013 using an economic market model. The results suggest that energy requirements in production explain 43% of observed variation in metal prices, crustal abundance 21%, and other physical indicators (toxicity, native metal status, and melting point) combine to explain 12% of the observed differences in metal prices.
Watson, Brett J.↗