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Elkins, James W.

Publications and source records attributed to Elkins, James W..

Constraining Remote Oxidation Capacity with ATom Observations

The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July–August 2016 and January–February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NOy concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias with the exception of wintertime NOy, for which a model overestimate may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on seasalt aerosol but large uncertainties remain that require further studies of NOy partitioning and removal in the troposphere. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by new estimates of ocean VOC sources and additional modeled reactivity in this region would be difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOC, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in modeled acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean VOC sources in the model increases annual surface cOHRmod by 10 % and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde particularly in winter but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require a 100 Tg yr−1 source of a long-lived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land.

Travis, Katherine R.

Model Sensitivity Studies of the Decrease in Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) is an ozone-depleting substance, which is controlled by the Montreal Protocol and for which the atmospheric abundance is decreasing. However, the current observed rate of this decrease is known to be slower than expected based on reported CCl4 emissions and its estimated overall atmospheric lifetime. Here we use a three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model to investigate the impact on its predicted decay of uncertainties in the rates at which CCl4 is removed from the atmosphere by photolysis, by ocean uptake and by degradation in soils. The largest sink is atmospheric photolysis (74% of total), but a reported 10% uncertainty in its combined photolysis cross section and quantum yield has only a modest impact on the modelled rate of CCl4 decay. This is partly due to the limiting effect of the rate of transport of CCl4 from the main tropospheric reservoir to the stratosphere, where photolytic loss occurs. The model suggests large interannual variability in the magnitude of this stratospheric photolysis sink caused by variations in transport. The impact of uncertainty in the minor soil sink (9%of total) is also relatively small. In contrast, the model shows that uncertainty in ocean loss (17%of total) has the largest impact on modelled CCl4 decay due to its sizeable contribution to CCl4 loss and large lifetime uncertainty range (147 to 241 years). With an assumed CCl4 emission rate of 39 Gg year(exp -1), the reference simulation with the best estimate of loss processes still underestimates the observed CCl4 (overestimates the decay) over the past 2 decades but to a smaller extent than previous studies. Changes to the rate of CCl4 loss processes, in line with known uncertainties, could bring the model into agreement with in situ surface and remote-sensing measurements, as could an increase in emissions to around 47 Gg year(exp -1). Further progress in constraining the CCl4 budget is partly limited by systematic biases between observational datasets. For example, surface observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) network are larger than from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network but have shown a steeper decreasing trend over the past 2 decades. These differences imply a difference in emissions which is significant relative to uncertainties in the magnitudes of the CCl4 sinks.

Carbon Trechloride

Early Validation Analyses of Atmospheric Profiles from EOS MLS on the Aura Satellite

We present results of early validation studies using retrieved atmospheric profiles from the Earth Observing System Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite. 'Global' results are presented for MLS measurements of atmospheric temperature, ozone, water vapor, hydrogen chloride, nitrous oxide, nitric acid, and carbon monoxide, with a focus on the January-March 2005 time period. These global comparisons are made using long-standing global satellites and meteorological datasets, as well as some measurements from more recently launched satellites. Comparisons of MLS data with measurements from the Ft. Sumner, NM, September 2004 balloon flights are also presented. Overall, good agreeement is obtained, often within 5% to 10%, but we point out certain issues to resolve and some larger systematic differences; some artifacts in the first publicly released MLS (version 1.5) dataset are noted.We comment briefly on future plans for validation and software improvements.

Atmospheric retrievals

Tracer-based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999/2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999/2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for 26 November 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences we inferred descent prior to 26 November: as much as 397 plus or minus 15 K (lsigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and falling to 28 plus or minus 13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from 26 November through 12 March, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between 26 November and 27 January: 0.82 plus or minus 0.20 K/day averaged over 50- 250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (26 February to 12 March), the average rate had decreased to 0.10 plus or minus 0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (26 November to 5 March) descent rate varied from 0.75 plus or minus 0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40 plus or minus 0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999/2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffrey B.

Defining the Polar Vortex Edge from a N20: Potential Temperature Correlation

A prerequisite to studying phenomena in the winter stratospheric polar vortex is the separation of measurements inside and outside the dynamical barrier of the vortex edge. We describe a technique to accurately determine the inner edge of the vortex boundary region from measurements of potential temperature and a trace gas, such as N2O, and apply it to in situ aircraft and balloon measurements from the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 Arctic campaign. The method may be used to refine the Nash algorithm, which, due to the inherently coarser resolution of potential vorticity on which it is dependent, may misidentify the inner edge by more than 400 km and omit the identification of small, extravortex filaments within the vortex.

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

Defining the Polar Vortex Edge Using an N2O: Potential Temperature Correlation Versus the Nash Criterion: A Comparison

A prerequisite to study phenomena in the winter stratospheric polar vortex is the separation of measurements inside and outside the dynamical barrier of the vortex edge. We describe a technique to accurately determine the inner edge of the vortex boundary region from measurements of potential temperature and a trace gas, such as N2O, and apply it to in situ aircraft and balloon measurements from the SOLVE/THESE02000 Arctic campaign. The method may be used to refine the Nash algorithm, which, due to the inherently coarser resolution of potential vorticity on which it is dependent, may misidentify the inner edge by up to 466 km, and omit the identification of small, extra-vortex filaments within the vortex.

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

Tracer-Based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999-2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for November 26, 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude, extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences, we inferred descent prior to November 26: 397+/-15 K (1sigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and 28+/-13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from November 26 through March 12, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between November 26 and January 27: 0.82+/-0.20 K/day averaged over 50-250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (February 26-March 12), the average rate had decreased to 0.10+/-0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (November 26-March 5) descent rate varied from 0.75+/-0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40+/-0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999-2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

Quantifying Subsidence in the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter Vortex

Quantifying the subsidence of the polar winter stratospheric vortex is essential to the analysis of ozone depletion, as chemical destruction often occurs against a large, altitude-dependent background ozone concentration. Using N2O measurements made during SOLVE on a variety of platforms (ER-2, in-situ balloon and remote balloon), the 1999-2000 Arctic winter subsidence is determined from N2O-potential temperature correlations along several N2O isopleths. The subsidence rates are compared to those determined in other winters, and comparison is also made with results from the SLIMCAT stratospheric chemical transport model.

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.

Vertical transport rates in the statosphere in 1993 from observations of CO2, N2O, and CH4

Measurements of CO2, N2O, and CH4 are analyzed to define hemispheric average vertical exchange rates in the lower stratosphere from November 1992 to October 1993. Effective vertical diffusion coefficients were small in summer, less than or equal to 1 sq m/s at altitudes below 25 km; values were similar near the tropopause in winter, but increased markedly with altitude. The analysis suggests possible longer residence times for exhaust from stratospheric aircraft, and more efficient transport from 20 km to the middle stratosphere, than predicted by many current models. Seasonally-resolved measurements of stratospheric CO2 and N2O provide significant new constraints on rates for global-scale vertical transport.

Wofsy, Steven C.

Vertical Transport Rates in the Stratosphere in 1993 from Observations of CO2, N2O and CH4

Measurements of CO2, N2O and CH4 are analyzed to define hemispheric average vertical exchange rates in the lower stratosphere from November 1992 to October 1993. Effective vertical diffusion coefficients were small in summer, less than or equal to 1 m(exp 2)/sec at altitudes below 25 km; values were similar near the tropopause in winter, but increased markedly with altitude. The analysis suggests possibly longer residence times for exhaust from stratospheric aircraft, and more efficient transport from 20 km to the middle stratosphere, than predicted by many current models. Seasonally-resolved measurements of stratospheric CO2 and N2O provide significant new constraints on rates for global-scale vertical transport.

Wofsy, Steven C.