Bayesian Assessment of Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and Halon Banks Suggest Large Reservoirs Still Present in Old Equipment
Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These ‘banks’ within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to evaluate nascent production versus banked emissions. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed to quantify CFC-11, 12 and 113 banks and their emissions. We extend this model to a suite of the major banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-142b, halon-1211, and halon-1301, and CFC-114 and CFC-115) along with CFC-11, 12 and 113 in order to quantify a fuller range of ozone-depleting substance banks by chemical and equipment type. We show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are very likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that total production has been very likely higher than reported. We identify that banks of greatest climate-relevance, as determined by global warming potential weighting, are largely concentrated in CFC-11 foams and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, CFC-11, and 12 banks dominate the banks weighted by ozone depletion potential. Thus, we identify and quantify the uncertainties in substantial banks whose future emissions will contribute to future global warming and delay ozone hole recovery if left unrecovered.