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Erik Antonsen

Publications and source records attributed to Erik Antonsen.

Evidence Report: Risk of Renal Stone Formation

Kidney stone formation and passage has the potential to greatly impact mission success and crewmember health, especially for long-duration missions. Alterations in hydration state (relative dehydration), spaceflight-induced changes in urine biochemistry (urine super-saturation), and bone metabolism (increased calcium excretion) during exposure to microgravity may increase the risk of kidney stone formation. There are possible countermeasures and treatments available that are used terrestrially that may then be applied to spaceflight. Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are used throughout this document to communicate spaceflight conditions that may lead to renal stone formation, the countermeasures that may be used to prevent their formation, and possible treatment modalities. The DAGs are sorted by strength of evidence, according to Table 6. Additionally, for the full Renal Stone Evidence Report Content: Directed Acyclic Graphs and Evidence Report, please see Appendix A, Expanded Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and Evidence. Additionally, a proposed Concept of Operations for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Renal Stones for a Mars Mission was created in conjunction with and to complement this Evidence Report update. Please see Appendix B, Proposed Expanded Concept of Operations for the Prevention, Diagnosis and Treatment of Renal Stones for Mars Missions, for the full report. Areas in the following Evidence Report will be cross-linked to scenarios from the Concept of Operations.

Emily Stratton

Development of an Accepted Medical Condition List for Exploration Medical Capability Scoping

Future NASA human spaceflight programs are on the verge of moving beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to implement missions in lunar space and ultimately Mars. The mission constraints for these types of missions are expected to be progressively challenging for integration of Human Systems requirements into the vehicle and mission architectures. Mass and volume allocations are expected to become increasingly restrictive at the same time that mission realities will drive an increasing need for crew self-sufficiency in the maintenance and repair of both vehicle systems and human systems. To meet these challenges, a systematic, traceable, and repeatable approach to identifying, defining, and prioritizing medical capabilities is required. To provide a systematic and repeatable approach to defining and prioritizing clinical capabilities for spaceflight medicine, a clear process is required for delivering a list of prioritized medical capabilities to the Systems Engineering process that will delineate the mass, power, volume, and similar needs and the trade space analysis for a given space vehicle and mission architecture.

Rebecca Blue

Comparison of Health and Performance Risk for Accelerated Mars Mission Scenarios

This document details the results for a quantitative estimate of the difference in human health and performance risk that crews would face for two hypothetical variations on Mars mission scenarios: an Accelerated Mars Mission (AMM) and a Standard Mars Mission(SMM).NASA goals for Mars mission concepts, duration, and tasks have varied over the years. While neither of the cases considered here are likely to accurately represent the initial mission to Mars, the exercise of evaluating significant differences in mission duration from an astronaut health perspective can provide bounding insight to the level of risk that is likely to be encountered in an eventual Mars mission. Medical Probabilistic Risk Assessment using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM)(1–3)and the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model (NSCR)(4,5) are used here to help mission planners gain the best insight currently available into the expected magnitude of impacts to astronaut health when undertaking a Mars mission. These impacts occur both in-mission as well as in the long-term health of the astronauts post-mission. These evaluations are currently the best available modeling estimates to characterize and bound the health risks in a proposed mission domain where humans have no experience.

Erik Antonsen

Using Systems Engineering to Develop an Integrated Crew Health and Performance System to Mitigate Risk for Human Exploration Missions

New space exploration missions are currently being designed to take humanity beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) to cis-lunar space, the lunar surface, and eventually to Mars. These missions carry increased risks due to a number of factors, including distance from Earth, exposure to deep space hazards, reduced capacity and ability to resupply and evacuate, and increased communication delays. As distance from Earth grows and mission length increases, a growing proportion of mission risk can be attributed to the “human system.” Almost twenty years ago, the Institute of Medicine in the United States recommended the early and complete integration of the human system into the spacecraft and mission design process to mitigate this increased risk inherent in exploration missions. Exploration missions will require increasing levels of crew self-sufficiency that will challenge the current operational paradigms established in LEO. Enabling progressive Earth independence requires management of the increasingly complex interactions among spacecraft systems and integration of all the data and functions that affect human health and performance into one coordinated system –the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. This system is a critical spacecraft system that is analogous to other systems such as propulsion, guidance and navigation, or avionics. Design and integration of the CHP system requires the evidence-based merger of typically disparate disciplines such as medicine, human factors, and life support system design, using systems engineering (SE) practices. SE provides traceability of spacecraft requirements and enables reliable and repeatable trade space analysis of the many competing options for hardware and software to be included in the mission architecture. The approach described here enables spacecraft and mission designers to align the scope of a CHP system with mission specific requirements, decrease risk to the crew, and increase the probability of mission success.

Kerry McGuire

Human Risks in Space

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Erik Antonsen

Using Systems Engineering to Develop an Integrated Crew Health and Performance System to Mitigate Risk for Human Exploration Missions

New space exploration missions are currently being designed to take humanity beyond Low EarthOrbit (LEO) to cis-lunar space, the lunar surface, and eventually to Mars. These missions carryincreased risks due to a number of factors, including distance from Earth, exposure to deep spacehazards, reduced capacity and ability to resupply and evacuate, and increased communication delays.As distance from Earth grows and mission length increases, a growing proportion of overall missionrisk can be attributed to the “human system.” Almost twenty years ago, the Institute of Medicine in theUnited States recommended the early and complete integration of the human system into thespacecraft and mission design process to mitigate this increased risk inherent in exploration missions.Exploration missions will require increasing levels of crew self-sufficiency that will challenge thecurrent operational paradigms established in LEO. Enabling progressive Earth independence requiresmanagement of the increasingly complex interactions among spacecraft systems and integration of allthe data and functions that affect human health and performance into one coordinated system – theCrew Health and Performance (CHP) system. This system is a critical spacecraft system that isanalogous to other systems such as propulsion, guidance and navigation, or avionics. Design andintegration of the CHP system requires the evidence-based merger of typically disparate disciplinessuch as medicine, human factors, and physiological support system design, using systems engineering(SE) practices. The approach described here enables spacecraft and mission designers to align thescope of a CHP system with mission specific requirements, decrease risk to the crew, and increase theprobability of mission success.

Kerry Mcguire

Development of A Directed Acyclic Graph for Venous Thromboembolism During Spaceflight

Introduction: Recent studies have reported the development of venous blood flow stasis in astronauts and an occlusive venous thrombosis during spaceflight. Subsequent investigations revealed approximately one quarter of surveilled crew members had some degree of blood flow stasis in the left internal jugular vein. Therefore, NASA’s Human System Risk Board now formally tracks venous thromboembolism (VTE) as a “concern” for human spaceflight. To investigate potential mechanisms by which exposures concomitant with spaceflight (e.g., microgravity, radiation) may contribute to VTE, we developed a causal diagram in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Methods: The mechanisms by which spaceflight exposures may elevate the risk of VTE and the downstream effects on mission outcomes were critically analyzed, taking into account scientific literature and subject matter expertise consultation, and a DAG was generated. A Level-of-Evidence score for each causal relationship was assigned based on assessing the literature against a set of criteria derived from the A. Bradford Hill Causal Guidelines. Results: The set of three main factors that predispose people to VTE (hypercoagulability, endothelial damage, and blood stasis) is known as Virchow’s Triad. In constructing the DAG for VTE we articulated various mechanisms by which the principal spaceflight hazards (microgravity, radiation, closed hostile environment, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth) are thought to interact with or cause the components in Virchow’s triad. We found sufficient evidence to at least speculate that fluid shifts from microgravity, compensatory alterations in hematologic indices, spaceflight atmospheric conditions, and oxidative stress/inflammation from radiation may be potential contributors to VTE development. Discussion: Developing the DAG entailed a systematic and repeatable approach for visualizing relationships between contributing factors that may lead to VTE in spaceflight. Articulating pathways linking spaceflight exposures to VTE risk factors and possible VTE development enables subject matter experts from different domains to construct a shared mental model. Assignment of levels of evidence scores to the relationships helps identify knowledge and capability gaps that should be considered for further investigation. Furthermore, the DAG highlights modifiable variables and may therefore facilitate the development of new VTE risk mitigation strategies.

Alexander Svoronos