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Erikson, Luke E.

Publications and source records attributed to Erikson, Luke E..

CBRN Situational Awareness Tools for the Modern Age

CBRN Situational awareness (SA) should be a key operational requirement in the CNI area of discussion, not only for the “boots-on-the-ground” warfighter, but at a strategic level. For example, maneuver plans will need to be developed for contamination avoidance and battlefield survivability. Large datasets from instruments dispersed across the battlefield will thus need to be collected and processed into a holistic assessment of the radiological hazard. From there, hazard maps then must be distributed at the tactical level, all while continuing to effectively engage a peer adversary. This vision represents a network of sensors, software tools, data processing algorithms, communications suites, and common operational picture (COP) platforms working in concert to inform warfighters and command echelons alike of evolving nuclear and radiological hazards. This complex system-of-systems and the ultimate goal of effective engagement in a nuclear or radiological-hazard battlefield can be achieved through pursuit of improvement in collaborative SA tools.

Becker, Eric M.↗

PNNL Strategic Goods Testbed: A Data Library for Illicit Nuclear Trafficking

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has put significant effort into nonproliferation activities as an institution, both in terms of the classical nuclear material focused approach and in the examination of other strategic goods necessary to implement a nuclear program. To assist in these efforts, several projects in the Analysis in Motion (AIM) and Signature Discovery (SDI) Initiatives at PNNL are developing machine learning methodology for human-computer interaction in real time environments to assist analysts in this domain. All of these technical projects require access to data – whether it is in terms of detector data, shipping records, financial information, company relations, or other communications. The first question that mathematical and computational researchers come up with when asked to build analyst assist or automated tools is “What does the data look like? ” They become frustrated when basic questions like this can not be easily answered and this can have the effect of pushing researchers away from the nuclear trafficking domain, especially in strategic commodity and export control areas where data sets can not easily be generated through standard experimental techniques. For small projects that are building a proof of concept for their methodology, obtaining this data can be arduous and expensive. To relieve the burden of data collection from these projects and grow a lab-wide capability, the Strategic Goods Testbed Team has taken over data collection and placed subscriptions and access to flat data files in a centralized location so that all projects can benefit from these items. We have collected shipping data in the form of PIERS records, judicial information about export control cases, NAC data on the nuclear fuel industry, and financial data from Dun and Bradstreet and our data sets are continuing to expand. With a single access agreement, researchers in data-mining and other fields can utilize all of the records that have been downloaded, make requests through subscription services, and interact with other researchers through our interface. Our testbed team provides more than a simply static repository by working with researchers to refine their data needs and insure data quality as well as quantity. We are currently working with laboratory and initiative specific management to examine effective ways for continuing data growth and sustainability.

data capability↗

SIGNATURES OF ILLICIT NUCLEAR PROCUREMENT NETWORKS: AN OVERVIEW OF PRELIMINARY APPROACHES AND RESULTS

The illicit trafficking of strategic nuclear commodities (defined here as the goods needed for a covert nuclear program excluding special nuclear materials) poses a significant challenge to the international nuclear nonproliferation community. Export control regulations, both domestically and internationally, seek to inhibit the spread of strategic nuclear commodities by restricting their sale to parties that may use them for nefarious purposes. However, export controls alone are not sufficient for preventing the illicit transfer of strategic nuclear goods. There are two major pitfalls to relying solely on export control regulations for the deterrence of proliferation of strategic goods. First, export control enforcement today relies heavily on the honesty and willingness of participants to adhere to the legal framework already in place. Secondly, current practices focus on the evaluation of single records which allow for the necessary goods to be purchased separately and hidden within the thousands of legitimate commerce transactions that occur each day, disregarding strategic information regarding several purchases. Our research presents two preliminary data-centric approaches for investigating procurement networks of strategic nuclear commodities. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been putting significant effort into nonproliferation activities as an institution, both in terms of the classical nuclear material focused approach and in the examination of other strategic goods necessary to implement a nuclear program. In particular, the PNNL Signature Discovery Initiative (SDI) has codified several scientific methodologies for the detection, characterization, and prediction of signatures that are indicative of a phenomenon of interest. The methodologies and tools developed under SDI have already been applied successfully to problems in bio-forensics, cyber security and power grid balancing efforts and they have now made the nonproliferation of strategic goods into a challenge problem for testing their methodology and tools. As a first step towards the detection and characterization of illicit procurement networks, our research examines procurement networks as defined by a system of entities (people or companies) that enter into transactions of specific items with one another. Once we have defined such networks, we are interested in answering questions about the behavior and characterization of such networks. The questions we wish to answer regarding procurement networks are, first, “Can we detect networks within large, noisy datasets?” and second, “To what extent can we compare multiple networks and identify their similarities?” As procurement networks can be naturally viewed as a graph, we have employed several graph analytic tools to aid in these tasks. In particular, Graphscape, an SDI tool, uses a novel method to approximate edit distance, a graph distance measure based on the number of changes needed to transform one graph into another, in order to measure how similar two given graphs are to each other. Given a set of graphs where vertices represent companies and edges represent a shipment from company A to company B, we can calculate an all-for-all comparison of graphs. In this way, we are able to determine which graphs are most similar, and which require more changes to transform one into the other. The set of graphs to be compared can be further specialized to provide more insight, e.g., using different time periods to explore events in a company life cycle.

graph analysis↗

Validating the Melusine Gamma Spectroscopy Tool

This technical report describes testing to evaluate the gamma spectroscopy tool, Melusine, under development by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The goal was to verify that the software can successfully be used to provide accurate results and statistical uncertainties for the detection of isotopes of interest and their activities. Of special interest were spectra similar to those produced by radionuclide stations that contribute to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s International Monitoring System. Two data sets were used to test Melusine’s capabilities. The first was the result of a multi-lab calibration effort based on neutron activations produced at the University of California at Davis. The second was taken from the Proficiency Test Exercises conducted by the CTBTO directly in 2005. In 37 of 42 cases, Melusine produced results in agreement with the best answer presently available, in most cases with calculated uncertainties comparable to or better than competing analyses. In fact, Melusine technically provided one more result than CTBTO’s PTE analyses that agreed with the “book answer” (Monte Carlo simulation). Despite these promising results, the Melusine software is still under development. Effort is especially needed to simplify its analysis process, improve stability, and provide user documentation. Some significant analysis tasks require further vetting, such as those to address summing effects. However, our test results indicate that Melusine’s calculations as presently implemented are sound and can be used to reliably analyze spectra from the CTBTO’s radionuclide stations.

CTBTO↗

Empirical Correction of Crosstalk in a Low-Background Germanium γ–γ Analysis System

ABSTRACT The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is currently developing a custom software suite capable of automating many of the tasks required to accurately analyze coincident signals within gamma spectrometer arrays. During the course of this work, significant crosstalk was identified in the energy determination for spectra collected with a new low-background intrinsic germanium (HPGe) array at PNNL. The HPGe array is designed for high detection efficiency, ultra-low-background performance, and sensitive gamma gamma coincidence detection. The first half of the array, a single cryostat containing 7 HPGe crystals, was recently installed into a new shallow underground laboratory facility. This update will present a brief review of the germanium array, describe the observed crosstalk, and present a straight-forward empirical correction that significantly reduces the impact of this crosstalk on the spectroscopic performance of the system.

coincidence↗

Determining HPGe Total Detection Efficiency Using γ–γ Coincidence

Abstract Both the peak and total detection efficiencies are generally needed in order to calculate sample activity from a gamma spectroscopic measurement, except in the case of isotope specific calibration. This is particularly true when the sample is in close proximity to the detector and corrections for cascade summing effects are required to avoid significant inaccuracy in the result. These corrections use the total detection efficiency to correct for summing-in and summing-out events, and the extent of the correction depends on both the geometry and the gamma cascade for the isotope in question. Experimentally determining the total efficiency is a labor intensive endeavor requiring multiple measurements with a set of single-gamma-emitting standards. Modeling the total efficiency vs. energy may be less time consuming, but is also likely to produce less confidence in the final result. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Radiation Detection and Nuclear Sciences group has constructed a low background 14-crystal HPGe array for sample measurement; in all measurements, samples will be in close proximity to the germanium crystals. This close geometry and the sheer number efficiency calibrations required for the system have led us to investigate methods to simplify the efficiency calibration procedure. One method we are developing uses the Y-Y coincidence plane to isolate Compton scattering event populations, allowing experimental determination of total detection efficiency values from the measurement of a single mixed isotope standard. A description of the analysis and experimental results of this method are presented.

low background HPGe High Purity Germanium detector↗