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Falconer, David

Publications and source records attributed to Falconer, David.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Extending Terrestrial Weather R2O/O2R to Space Weather at NASA's SPoRT Center

SPoRT (Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition Center)'s R2O/O2R (Research-to-Operations/Operations-to-Research) paradigm that has resulted in 15 plus years of success for terrestrial weather can be applied to space weather challenges. Given strong collaborations with NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), SWPC (Space Weather Prediction Center), National Weather Service partners and seed-funded testbed activity, there is an opportunity to establish a bridge between NASA research community and operational forecasters for near-Earth applications. Starting local with strong space weather group at MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) and MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast) with opportunities to strategically expand interaction to other groups generating space weather projects within NASA, university, and private sector community, using the Supercomputer for Satellite Simulations and Data Assimilation Studies (S4).

research-to-operations↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of the Minifilament-Eruption Scenario for Solar Coronal Jets in Polar Coronal Holes

Solar coronal jets are suspected to result from magnetic reconnection low in the Sun's atmosphere. Sterling et al. (2015) looked as 20 jets in polar coronal holes, using X-ray images from the Hinode/X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). They suggested that each jet was driven by the eruption of twisted closed magnetic field carrying a small-scale filament, which they call a 'minifilament', and that the jet was produced by reconnection of the erupting field with surrounding open field. In this study, we carry out a more extensive examination of polar coronal jets. From 180 hours of XRT polar coronal hole observations spread over two years (2014-2016), we identified 130 clearly-identifiable X-ray jet events and thus determined an event rate of over 17 jets per day per in the Hinode/XRT field of view. From the broader set, we selected 25 of the largest and brightest events for further study in AIA 171, 193, 211, and 304 Angstrom images. We find that at least the majority of the jets follow the minifilament-eruption scenario, although for some cases the evolution of the minifilament in the onset of its eruption is more complex than presented in the simplified schematic of Sterling et al. (2015). For all cases in which we could make a clear determination, the spire of the X-ray jet drifted laterally away from the jet-base-edge bright point; this spire drift away from the bright point is consistent with expectations of the minifilament-eruption scenario for coronal-jet production. This work was supported with funding from the NASA/MSFC Hinode Project Office, and from the NASA HGI program.

holes↗
NASA NTRS2015

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Barghouty, Nasser↗
NASA NTRS2013

How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

Falconer, David↗