Engineering topics

Feijoo, Felipe

Publications and source records attributed to Feijoo, Felipe.

6 records

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Net Zero World Initiative’s Preliminary Analysis of Decarbonization Pathways for Five Countries

Under the Net Zero World Initiative, the United States is mobilizing the capabilities of nine U.S. government agencies, led by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), to partner with philanthropies and multiple countries to cocreate and implement tailored technical and investment pathways to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. In addition, 10 of the DOE national laboratories have built a consortium housed in the Net Zero World Action Center to implement this vision by providing the deep analysis and modeling required to carry out the vision. As a whole-of-government program, the Net Zero World Initiative partners with countries committed to raising their climate ambitions by creating and implementing highly tailored, actionable technical and investment strategies that put a net-zero world within reach. The initiative enables country partners to harness the convening power and technical expertise of U.S. agencies and laboratories, international industry, and technical institutions while providing the United States an opportunity to learn from and deepen U.S. technical cooperation with key countries. This report is the first of a series, with future Phase II work being informed by ongoing consultations with the partner countries to address country pathway analysis priorities. This future work will likely include evaluating detailed technological, policy, and investment options for key sectors and for energy systems holistically. This analysis may examine in greater detail the economic and social benefits of net-zero energy transitions, including quality jobs and health outcomes, the impacts of price and supply volatility on energy investments and decisions, the risk of stranded assets, and related issues.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Net Zero World Initiative’s Preliminary Analysis of Decarbonization Pathways for Five Countries. Executive Summary

Under the Net Zero World Initiative, the United States is marshalling the forces of nine U.S. government agencies, led by the U.S. Department of Energy, to partner with philanthropies and multiple countries to cocreate and implement tailored technical and investment pathways to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. In addition, 10 of the DOE national laboratories have built a consortium housed in the Net Zero World Action Center to implement this vision by providing the deep analysis and modeling required to carry out the vision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets

Cumulative emissions budgets are increasingly being used by decision makers and analysts to understand emissions reductions and associated transitions in the context of long-term goals such as limiting global mean temperature increase over the century to 1.5 or 2°C (IPCC, 2014). While previous studies have explored the implications of cumulative emissions budgets for the global economy, few studies have conducted regional and national-level analyses (Iyer et al., 2015; Riahi et al., 2015). This paper explores cumulative emissions budgets through 2050 consistent with the 1.5 and 2°C long-term temperature goals in the context of the United States. We employ a state-level model of the United States embedded within a global human-Earth system model (GCAM-USA) to study the implications of such budgets for the U.S. energy system (Iyer et al., 2017a; Iyer et al., 2017b). Our results show that achieving the stringent cumulative emissions budgets entails accelerated deployment of energy conserving technology, almost complete decarbonization of the power sector and increased electrification of buildings and industrial end-use sectors and decarbonization of transport employing a combination of electrification and the substitution of bioenergy for fossil fuels by the mid-century. We also find substantial state-level differences in the relative roles of these decarbonization strategies. Furthermore, our results highlight that increased ambition in the near-term will be valuable in setting the stage for smoother transformations in the future to achieve stringent cumulative emissions budgets consistent with long-term temperature goals established by the international community.

Feijoo, Felipe↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗