Engineering topics

Fernandez, Steven J.

Publications and source records attributed to Fernandez, Steven J..

7 records

DOE OSTI2020

Toward indicators of the performance of US infrastructures under climate change risks

Built infrastructures are increasingly disrupted by climate-related extreme events. Being able to monitor what climate change implies for US infrastructures is of considerable importance to all levels of decision-makers. A capacity to develop cross-cutting, widely applicable indicators for more than a dozen different kinds of infrastructure, however, is severely limited at present. The development of such indicators must be considered an ongoing activity that will require expansion and refinement. A number of recent consensus reports suggest four priorities for indicators that portray the impacts of climate change, climate-related extreme events, and other driving forces on infrastructure. These are changes in the reliability of infrastructure services and the implications for costs; changes in the resilience of infrastructures to climate and other stresses; impacts due to the interdependencies of infrastructures; and ongoing adaptation in infrastructures.

adaptation, indicators, infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2016

Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

New tools are employed to develop an electricity demand map for the southeastern United States at neighborhood resolution to serve as a baseline from which to project increases in electricity demand due to a rise in global and local temperature and to population shifts motivated by increases in extreme weather events due to climate change. We find that electricity demand increases due to temperature rise over the next 40 years have a much smaller impact than those due to large population influx. In addition, we find evidence that some, sections of the national electrical grid are more adaptable to these population shifts and changing demand than others are; and that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for planning at the urban level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Method for estimating power outages and restoration during natural and man-made events

A method of modeling electric supply and demand with a data processor in combination with a recordable medium, and for estimating spatial distribution of electric power outages and affected populations. A geographic area is divided into cells to form a matrix. Within the matrix, supply cells are identified as containing electric substations and demand cells are identified as including electricity customers. Demand cells of the matrix are associated with the supply cells as a function of the capacity of each of the supply cells and the proximity and/or electricity demand of each of the demand cells. The method includes estimating a power outage by applying disaster event prediction information to the matrix, and estimating power restoration using the supply and demand cell information of the matrix and standardized and historical restoration information.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Extreme Weather Events and Interconnected Infrastructures: Toward More Comprehensive Climate Change Planning [Meeting challenges in understanding impacts of extreme weather events on connected infrastructures]

The President s Climate Change Action Plan calls for the development of better science, data, and tools for climate preparedness. Many of the current questions about preparedness for extreme weather events in coming decades are, however, difficult to answer with assets that have been developed by climate science to answer longer-term questions about climate change. Capacities for projecting exposures to climate-related extreme events, along with their implications for interconnected infrastructures, are now emerging.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Racial Geography, Economic Growth and Natural Disaster Resilience

Recent development of National Response Plans and National Incident Management Plans has emphasized the need for interoperability of plans, systems, technology, and command structures. However, much less emphasis has been placed on equally important elements such as the at-risk populations’ response to those plans, systems, and directions. The community-wide consequences of Hurricane Katrina demonstrated that the protection of communities should no longer be considered only a function of public organizations. Private organizations, nonprofit organizations and individual households have significant roles to play in these plans (Comfort 2006, Salamon 2002). This study is a first attempt to characterize the effect on the resilience (recovery) of metropolitan areas by the presence (or absence) of separate small communities within a larger jurisdiction. These communities can be based on many different social cleavages (ethnic, racial, economic, social, geographic, linguistic, etc.).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Eastern Seaboard Electric Grid Fragility Maps Supporting Persistent Availability

Persistently available power transmission can be disrupted by weather causing power outages with economic and social consequences. This research investigated the effects on the national power grid from a specific weather event, Hurricane Irene, that caused approximately 5.7 million customer power outages along the Eastern Seaboard in August of 2011. The objective was to describe the geographic differences in the grid s vulnerability to these events. Individual factors, such as wind speed or precipitation, were correlated with the number of outages to determine the greatest mechanism of power failure in hopes of strengthening the future power grid. The resulting fragility maps not only depicted 18 counties that were less robust than the design-standard robustness model and three counties that were more robust, but also drew new damage contours with correlated wind speeds and county features.

Persistent Availability↗

DOE OSTI2012

Real Time Simulation of Power Grid Disruptions

DOE-OE and DOE-SC workshops (Reference 1-3) identified the key power grid problem that requires insight addressable by the next generation of exascale computing is coupling of real-time data streams (1-2 TB per hour) as the streams are ingested to dynamic models. These models would then identify predicted disruptions in time (2-4 seconds) to trigger the smart grid s self healing functions. This project attempted to establish the feasibility of this approach and defined the scientific issues, and demonstrated example solutions to important smart grid simulation problems. These objectives were accomplished by 1) using the existing frequency recorders on the national grid to establish a representative and scalable real-time data stream; 2) invoking ORNL signature identification algorithms; 3) modeling dynamically a representative region of the Eastern interconnect using an institutional cluster, measuring the scalability and computational benchmarks for a national capability; and 4) constructing a prototype simulation for the system s concept of smart grid deployment. The delivered ORNL enduring capability included: 1) data processing and simulation metrics to design a national capability justifying exascale applications; 2) Software and intellectual property built around the example solutions; 3) demonstrated dynamic models to design few second self-healing.

Chinthavali, Supriya↗