Filippov, Andrey | Search NASA

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of Sagging for 3D Printed Layers During the Curing Process

Here, a printed layer of silica-enforced poly(dimethylsiloxane)-co-(diphenylsiloxane) is modeled as a two-phase system consisting of air and polymer with an interface set up during the printing process. The structural geometry changes mostly due to the action of surface tension, while all material properties are strongly temperature dependent. Polymer flow is described using equations of the extended Herschel–Bulkley model, with parameters strongly dependent on temperature and degree of curing. Parameters of the model are determined using flow sweep measurements and separate experiments with vertical structure sagging at different temperatures. The curing process is modeled using dependencies between the curing rate, degree of curing, and temperature obtained in studies by differential scanning calorimetry. The developed model is used for simulations of printed structure deformations with different initial and boundary conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗