Feasibility of Using Radar for Characterizing and Tracking Plumes
With the enhanced capabilities of NEXRAD radars has come an increased body of research focused on non-weather artifacts in the radar signal. Radar data has been collected and evaluated for a range of plume-generating events. Events such as wildfires, measuring and tracking ash from volcanic eruptions, and tracking plumes from events such as the SpaceX rocket explosion in 2016 have been investigated to determine the useful measurements available in radar data. For decision makers interested in radar use in nuclear forensics or during an emergency response, the usefulness of radar for attempting to provide some answers early in an event is clear. Currently emplaced operational radars provide high spatial and temporal resolution data within minutes of an event. This is not to say radar observations would replace current methods used by decision makers; however, supplementing decision making with radar data can only enhance and better inform the decision process. This report builds on two previous reports submitted in November 2016 and May 2017. This feasibility study demonstrates that radar can be used to improve decision making in the early phases of a plume-generating event by decreasing uncertainty as well as improving source-term inputs in F&T models. Radar coverage exists today in capabilities such as NOAA’s NEXRAD weather surveillance radars and Terminal Doppler Weather Radars. Improvement could be realized quickly by (1) improving awareness of existing radar products and incorporating them into decision making and modeling efforts, (2) evaluating and improving radar coverage around key urban areas and critical infrastructure, and (3) improving radar algorithms to optimize for non-meteorological events such as plumes.