Flato, Gregory | Search NASA

DOE OSTI2020

Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO 2 ) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO 2 doubling in a 1% per year CO 2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Status of and Outlook for Largescale Modeling of Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Arctic

Arctic air masses have direct impacts on the weather and climatic extremes of midlatitude areas such as central North America. Arctic physical processes pose special and very important problems for global atmospheric models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction. At present, the observational database is inadequate to support research aimed at overcoming these problems. Three interdependent Arctic field programs now being planned will help to remedy this situation: SHEBA, which will operate an ice camp in the Arctic for a year-, ARM, which will supply instruments for use at the SHEBA ice camp and which will also conduct longer-term measurements near Barrow, Alaska; and FIRE, which will conduct one or more aircraft campaigns, in conjunction with remote-sensing investigations focused on the SHEBA ice camp. This paper provides an introductory overview of the physics of the Arctic from the perspective of large-scale modelers, outlines some of the modeling problems that arise in attempting to simulate these processes, and explains how the data to be provided by the three field programs can be used to test and improve large-scale models.

Randall, David↗