Engineering topics

Foltz, Gregory R.

Publications and source records attributed to Foltz, Gregory R..

11 records

DOE OSTI2024

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stronger Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Cooling in Near-Coastal Regions Compared to the Open Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) often induce strong mixing in the upper ocean that generates a trail of cooler sea surface temperature (Twake) in their wakes. The Twake can affect TC intensity, so its prediction is important, especially in coastal regions where TCs can make landfall. Coastal Twakes are often more complex than those in the open ocean due to the influences of coastline geometry, highly variable water depth, continental runoff, and shelf processes. Using observational data since 2002, here we show a significantly stronger global mean Twake in coastal regions compared to offshore regions. Temperature stratification is the main driver of stronger coastal Twakes in the North Atlantic and east Pacific. In the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean, the differences between coastal and offshore Twakes are smaller due to compensation between TC forcings and ocean stratification. The north Indian Ocean is unique in the Northern Hemisphere because salinity stratification plays a major role on the spatial distribution of Twake. In the South Pacific Ocean, TC intensity and translation speed are crucial for explaining coastal–offshore Twake differences, while ocean stratification and mixed layer depth are more important for the coastal–offshore Twake differences in the south Indian Ocean. These findings suggest that coastal–offshore differences in ocean stratification need to be properly represented in models in order to capture changes in TC-induced ocean cooling as storms approach landfall. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause considerable damage in coastal regions with dense human populations. Understanding TC–ocean interaction and how it differs between coastal and offshore regions can help predict TC intensity prior to landfall. Sea surface cooling after TC passage is an important proxy for TC–ocean interaction. A global evaluation of coastal TC-induced cooling has not been conducted. Using data covering two decades, we show significantly stronger TC-induced surface cooling in coastal regions compared to offshore regions at the global scale and in all basins except the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The difference is driven mainly by upper-ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and south Indian Ocean, and by TC characteristics in the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensification of Hurricane Sally (2020) over the Mississippi River Plume

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sally formed on 11 September 2020, traveled through the Gulf of Mexico (GMX), and intensified rapidly before making landfall on the Alabama coast as a devastating category-2 TC with extensive coastal and inland flooding. In this study, using a combination of observations and idealized numerical model experiments, we demonstrate that the Mississippi River plume played a key role in the intensification of Sally near the northern Gulf Coast. As the storm intensified and its translation slowed before landfall, sea surface cooling was reduced along its track, coincident with a pronounced increase in SSS. Further analysis reveals that TC Sally encountered a warm Loop Current eddy in the northern GMX close to the Mississippi River plume. Besides deepening the thermocline, the eddy advected low-salinity Mississippi River plume water into the storm’s path. This resulted in the development of strong upper-ocean salinity stratification, with a shallow layer of freshwater lying above a deep, warm “barrier layer.” Consequently, TC-induced mixing and the associated sea surface cooling were reduced, aiding Sally’s intensification. These results suggest that the Mississippi River plume and freshwater advection by the Loop Current eddies can play an important role in TC intensification near the U.S. Gulf Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A New Paradigm for Observing and Modeling of Air-Sea Interactions to Advance Earth System Prediction

The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Increasing Hurricane Intensification Rate Near the US Atlantic Coast

Hurricanes often cause severe damage and loss of life, and storms that intensify close to the coast pose a particularly serious threat. While changes in hurricane intensification and environment have been examined at basin scales previously, near-coastal changes have not been adequately explored. In this study, we address this using a suite of observations and climate model simulations. Over the 40-year period of 1979–2018, the mean 24-hr hurricane intensification rate increased by ~1.2 kt 6-hr –1 near the US Atlantic coast. However, a significant increase in intensification did not occur near the Gulf coast over the same period. The enhanced hurricane intensification along the Atlantic coast is consistent with an increasingly favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment there, which is well simulated by climate models over the historical period. Further, multi-model projections suggest a continued enhancement of the storm environment and hurricane intensification near the Atlantic coast in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Rainfall on Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Cooling

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are often accompanied by strong winds and torrential rains. While the winds associated with TCs tend to enhance mixing in the upper-ocean, the freshwater input from rain can stratify the water column and limit mixing. However, the extent to which the stabilizing effect of rainfall can compete with wind-induced mixing, and to what degree it modulates TC-induced sea surface cooling, remains unknown. Here we show, using a suite of observations, that heavy rains under weak TCs can significantly reduce the magnitude of cold wakes induced by them. Additionally, when compared to storms with low rain rates, the ocean surface under TCs with high rain rates freshens significantly and cools less. High-resolution climate model simulations and idealized experiments with an ocean mixed layer model support these results and reveal that oceanic mixing processes are primarily responsible for the reduced cooling under TCs, with a lesser role for surface fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Seasonality of Interbasin SST Contributions to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract Recent studies have demonstrated that the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) between the tropical Atlantic main development region (MDR) and the tropical Pacific (Niño 3) modulates Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This study further explores the seasonality of Pacific and Atlantic contributions to Atlantic hurricane activity. Our analysis shows that while MDR and Niño 3 SSTAs are equally important for late‐season (September–November) activity, early‐season (June‐August) activity is largely modulated by MDR SSTAs. This reflects the increased (reduced) variance of MDR (Niño 3) SSTAs in the early‐season due to their phase locking to the seasonal cycle. Further analysis yields skillful forecasts using an MDR‐Niño 3 interbasin index derived from hindcasts of the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble with May initial conditions. However, the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is lower than that of Niño 3 SSTAs, suggesting that increasing the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is key to improving seasonal outlooks.

West, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observed Global Increases in Tropical Cyclone-Induced Ocean Cooling and Primary Production

Tropical cyclones (TC) provide an important source of mixing for the upper ocean, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface and triggering phytoplankton blooms. TCs are changing in response to global warming, yet the impacts of those changes on the upper ocean are poorly known. Here we show a significant increasing trend in global TC-induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of 0.054oC per decade since 1982. The enhanced cooling has been driven primarily by an increase in the intensity of strong TCs (maximum wind speed > 33 m s-1) and associated strengthening of TC-induced mixing. Consistent with the enhanced mixing and SST cooling, we find a significant increase in TC-induced surface chlorophyll-a concentration of 3.7 x 10-3 mg m-3 per decade in oligotrophic areas. This enhancement of oceanic primary production by TCs is expected to partially offset its projected global decline under climate change.

Dac Da, Nguyen↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pronounced Impact of Salinity on Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

We show the importance of salinity for rapidly intensifying Atlantic tropical cyclones and demonstrate the potential for improved prediction of rapid intensification through the inclusion of salinity. Tropical Cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is difficult to predict and poses a formidable threat to coastal populations. A warm upper ocean is well-known to favor RI, but the role of ocean salinity is less clear. This study shows a strong inverse relationship between salinity and TC RI in the eastern Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic due to near-surface freshening from the Amazon-Orinoco River system. In this region, rapidly intensifying TCs induce a much stronger surface enthalpy flux compared to more weakly intensifying storms, in part due to a reduction in SST cooling caused by salinity stratification. This reduction has a noticeable positive impact on TCs undergoing RI, but the impact of salinity on more weakly intensifying storms is insignificant. These statistical results are confirmed through experiments with an ocean mixed layer model, which show that the salinity-induced reduction in SST cold wakes increases significantly as the storm’s intensification rate increases. Currently, operational statistical-dynamical RI models do not use salinity as a predictor. Through experiments with a statistical RI prediction scheme, it is found that the inclusion of surface salinity significantly improves the RI detection skill, offering promise for improved operational RI prediction. Satellite surface salinity may be valuable for this purpose, given its global coverage and availability in near real-time.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric Convection and Air–Sea Interactions over the Tropical Oceans: Scientific Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities

Over the past thirty years, the scientific community has made considerable progress in understanding and predicting tropical convection and air-sea interactions, thanks to sustained investments in extensive in-situ and remote sensing observations, targeted field experiments, advances in numerical modeling, and vastly improved computational resources and observing technologies. Those investments would not have been fruitful as isolated advancements without the collaborative effort of the atmospheric convection and air-sea interaction research communities. In this spirit, a U.S. and International CLIVAR-sponsored workshop on “Atmospheric convection and air-sea interactions over the tropical oceans” was held May 7-9, 2019 in Boulder, CO. The 90 participants were observational and modeling experts from the atmospheric convection and air-sea interactions communities with varying degrees of experience, from early-career researchers and students to senior scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗