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Ford, S. R.

Publications and source records attributed to Ford, S. R..

Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method

A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulations of the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE)

The Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) project will include two surface energetic events (chemical explosions) conducted as close as possible to ground zero (GZ) of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II Dry Alluvium (DAG) site in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Seismic and acoustic data from these events will complement DAG buried source data and improve interpretation of speed-of-sound signals from explosions for national security programs. A satellite image of the region near GZ along with some of the recording stations that we will use for the far- eld simulation is shown in Figure 1. The working design of the HE package is shown in the Figure 2 and is roughly a cube of C-4 bricks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Upright exercise or supine lower body negative pressure exercise maintains exercise responses after bed rest

Adaptation to bed rest or space flight is accompanied by an impaired ability to exercise in an upright position. We hypothesized that a daily, 30-min bout of intense, interval exercise in upright posture or supine against lower body negative pressure (LBNP) would maintain upright exercise heart rate and respiratory responses after bed rest. Twenty-four men (31 +/- 3 yr) underwent 5 d of 6 degree head-down tilt: eight performed no exercise (CON), eight performed upright treadmill exercise (UPex), and eight performed supine treadmill exercise against LBNP at -51.3 +/- 0.4 mm Hg (LBNPex). Submaximal treadmill exercise responses (56, 74, and 85% of VO2peak) were measured pre- and post-bed rest. In CON, submaximal heart rate, respiratory exchange ratio, and ventilation were significantly greater (P < or = 0.05) after bed rest. In UPex and LBNPex, submaximal exercise responses were similar pre- and post-bed rest. Our results indicate that a daily 30-min bout of intense, interval upright exercise training or supine exercise training against LBNP is sufficient to maintain upright exercise responses after 5 d of bed rest. These results may have important implications for the development of exercise countermeasures during space flight.

NASA Center ARC↗

The effect of dDAVP with saline loading on fluid balance during LBNP and standing after 24-hr head-down bedrest

Shuttle astronauts currently drink approximately a quart of water with eight salt tablets before reentry to restore lost body fluid and thereby reduce the likelihood of cardiovascular instability and syncope during reentry and after landing. However, the saline loading countermeasure is not entirely effective in restoring orthostatic tolerance to preflight levels. We tested the hypothesis that the effectiveness of this countermeasure could be improved with the use of a vasopressin analog, 1-deamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin (dDAVP). The rationale for this approach is that reducing urine formation with exogenous vasopressin should increase the magnitude and duration of the vascular volume expansion produced by the saline load, and in so doing improve orthostatic tolerance during reentry and postflight.

NASA Discipline Number 14-10↗