Dynamic cost risk estimation and budget misspecification
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Fox, G..
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Cost risk for new technology development is estimated by explicit stochastic processes. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate technology development activity budget changes during the technology development cycle.
Project cost risk is the uncertainty in final project cost, contingent on initial budget, requirements and schedule. For a proposed mission, a dynamic simulation model relying for some of its input on a simple risk elicitation is used to identify and quantify systemic cost risk.
This paper reviews aspects of Engineering for Reliability of the proposed NEPTUNE observatory.
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The objective of this project is to produce a system to fully model earthquake-related data. This task develops simulation and analysis tools to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling.
The Space Interferometry Mission in NASA's Origins Program is a 10m-baseline space-based Michelson interferometer scheduled for launch in 2009. This large instrument will measure the angles between stars to an accuracy of about one billionth of a degree of arc. This is an about two orders of magnitude over current astrometric instruments.
The Deep Space Network provides tracking and communication services for a number of U.S. and international low-Earth-orbiting (LEO) and near-Earth missions. This service is supplied by the 26-m subnet (located at each of the DSN complexes), the 9-m and the 34-m Antenna Research System antennas at Goldstone, and the 11-m antennas (following the orbital VLBI mission). An increasing number of LEO missions are planned for DSN support, which will result in increasingly complex ground resource allocation and mission support trades. To support TDA decision making on mission support and cost-effective ground system evolution for this 26-m subnet, LEO4CAST has been developed. LEO4CAST is a tool that uses statistical approaches to provide useful information for long-term ground system capacity planning and near-term resource allocation (prior to detailed time-of-day scheduling). LEO4CAST is currently beta-test software and is being exercised by both the Office of Telecommunications and Data Acquisition (TDA) and the JPL Systems Division.
A large class of scientific and engineering applications may be classified as irregular and loosely synchronous from the perspective of parallel processing. We present a partial classification of such problems. This classification has motivated us to enhance FORTRAN D to provide language support for irregular, loosely synchronous problems. We present techniques for parallelization of such problems in the context of FORTRAN D.
The Caltech Concurrent Computation Program wwhich studies basic issues in computational science is described. The research builds on initial work where novel concurrent hardware, the necessary systems software to use it and twenty significant scientific implementations running on the initial 32, 64, and 128 node hypercube machines have been constructed. A major goal of the program will be to extend this work into new disciplines and more complex algorithms including general packages that decompose arbitrary problems in major application areas. New high-performance concurrent processors with up to 1024-nodes, over a gigabyte of memory and multigigaflop performance are being constructed. The implementations cover a wide range of problems in areas such as high energy and astrophysics, condensed matter, chemical reactions, plasma physics, applied mathematics, geophysics, simulation, CAD for VLSI, graphics and image processing. The products of the research program include the concurrent algorithms, hardware, systems software, and complete program implementations.
A simulation program that investigates the relationship between manpower requirements and equipment availability in the presence of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance is presented. A method for optimization of metallization patterns is presented.