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Frazier, A. Will

Publications and source records attributed to Frazier, A. Will.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study: The Challenge of Defining Long-Duration Energy Storage

This document explores the definition of "long duration" as applied to energy storage. Given the growing use of this term, a uniform definition could aid in communication and consistency among various stakeholders. There is large and growing use of the ARPA-E definition of greater than 10 hours. However, the term "long-duration energy storage" is often used as shorthand for storage with sufficient duration to provide firm capacity and support grid resource adequacy. The actual duration needed for this application varies significantly from as little as a few hours to potentially multiple days. This leads to the unsatisfying conclusion that there cannot be a simple, uniform, and static definition of long duration storage that captures its ability to provide firm capacity and also aids consistent communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Interactions Between Variable Renewable Energy and Diurnal Storage

Cost declines and growing deployment of photovoltaic (PV), wind, and storage have led to increasing interest in the potential interactions of these three technologies as their role in the power system grows. In this work we enhance a national-scale capacity expansion model to evaluate how PV, wind, and storage interact in the evolution of the power system. Importantly, the modeling framework captures interactions in both investments and operations. Through this work we identify significant synergies between PV and storage. Scenarios with more PV always have more storage, and scenarios with more storage always have more PV. This synergy is due to the diurnal alignment of PV generation with 4-8 hour storage, and to the ability of PV to narrow system peaks to allow shorter-duration storage to serve as a peaking resource. Interactions between wind and storage are less pronounced, though we do observe that longer-duration storage resources appear to provide greater value for wind.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States

We simulate pathways for achieving up to 100% renewable energy (RE) electric power systems for the contiguous United States. Under base conditions, the least-cost buildout has RE penetration growing up to 57% in 2050. Relative to this base scenario, average CO2 abatement costs of achieving 80%, 90%, 95%, and 100% RE are $25, $33, $40, and $61/ton, respectively, with system costs growing from $30 to $36/MWh at 95% (achieved in 2040) and $39/MWh at 100%. Incremental abatement costs from 99% to 100% RE reach $930/ton, driven primarily by the need for firm RE capacity. In addition to the base conditions, we also examined 22 alternative conditions for a buildout of up to 100%. These sensitivities capture different technology trajectories, compliance requirements, requirement timing, electrification, and transmission availability. Nonlinear marginal costs for the last few percent approaching 100% RE were found for all sensitivities, which might motivate alternative nonelectric-sector abatement opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage: 2021 Update

In this work we describe the development of cost and performance projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery systems, with a focus on 4-hour duration systems. The projections are developed from an analysis of recent publications that consider utility-scale storage costs. The suite of publications demonstrates varied cost reductions for battery storage over time. Figure ES-1 shows the low, mid, and high cost projections developed in this work (on a normalized basis) relative to the published values. Figure ES-2 shows the overall capital cost for a 4-hour battery system based on those projections, with storage costs of $\$$143/kWh, $\$$198/kWh, and $\$$248/kWh in 2030 and $\$$87/kWh, $\$$149/kWh, and $\$$248/kWh in 2050. Battery variable operations and maintenance costs, lifetimes, and efficiencies are also discussed, with recommended values selected based on the publications surveyed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study: Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector

We model the evolution of the U.S. electricity sector from 2020 through 2050 and find significant market potential (>125 GW) for diurnal energy storage across all 19 scenarios considered. Most of this storage has 4-6 hours of duration. We find that storage deployment is driven primarily by the combination of capacity value and energy time-shifting value, and that the combination of these value streams is needed for optimal storage deployment to be realized. We also find a strong correlation of PV penetration and storage market potential. Cost and performance metrics in this study focus on Li-ion batteries because the technology has more market maturity than other emerging technologies but results from this study can be generalized to any technologies that meet the cost and performance projections assumed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study: The Four Phases of Storage Deployment: A Framework for the Expanding Role of Storage in the U.S. Power System

This report is one in a series of NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of publications. The table on the next page lists the planned publications and specific research topics they will examine under the SFS. This report, the first in the SFS series, explores the roles and opportunities for new, cost-competitive stationary energy storage with a conceptual framework based on four phases of current and potential future storage deployment, and presents a value proposition for energy storage that could result in substantial new cost-effective deployments. This conceptual framework provides a broader context for consideration of the later reports in the series, including the detailed results of the modeling and analysis of power system evolution scenarios and their operational implications

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗