Engineering topics

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

Publications and source records attributed to Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr..

6 records

NASA NTRS2015

An Upper Bound on Orbital Debris Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, P (sub c), have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum P (sub c). If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but useful P (sub c) upper bound. There are various avenues along which an upper bound on the high speed satellite collision probability has been pursued. Typically, for the collision plane representation of the high speed collision probability problem, the predicted miss position in the collision plane is assumed fixed. Then the shape (aspect ratio of ellipse), the size (scaling of standard deviations) or the orientation (rotation of ellipse principal axes) of the combined position error ellipse is varied to obtain a maximum P (sub c). Regardless as to the exact details of the approach, previously presented methods all assume that an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object and the two are combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. This combined position error covariance matrix is then modified according to the chosen scheme to arrive at a maximum P (sub c). But what if error covariance information for one of the two objects is not available? When error covariance information for one of the objects is not available the analyst has commonly defaulted to the situation in which only the relative miss position and velocity are known without any corresponding state error covariance information. The various usual methods of finding a maximum P (sub c) do no good because the analyst defaults to no knowledge of the combined, relative position error covariance matrix. It is reasonable to think, given an assumption of no covariance information, an analyst might still attempt to determine the error covariance matrix that results in an upper bound on the P (sub c). Without some guidance on limits to the shape, size and orientation of the unknown covariance matrix, the limiting case is a degenerate ellipse lying along the relative miss vector in the collision plane. Unless the miss position is exceptionally large or the at-risk object is exceptionally small, this method results in a maximum P (sub c) too large to be of practical use. For example, assuming that the miss distance is equal to the current ISS alert volume along-track (+ or -) distance of 25 kilometers and that the at-risk area has a 70 meter radius. The maximum (degenerate ellipse) P (sub c) is about 0.00136. At 40 kilometers, the maximum P (sub c) would be 0.00085 which is still almost an order of magnitude larger than the ISS maneuver threshold of 0.0001. In fact, a miss distance of almost 340 kilometers is necessary to reduce the maximum P (sub c) associated with this degenerate ellipse to the ISS maneuver threshold value. Such a result is frequently of no practical value to the analyst. Some improvement may be made with respect to this problem by realizing that while the position error covariance matrix of one of the objects (usually the debris object) may not be known the position error covariance matrix of the other object (usually the asset) is almost always available. Making use of the position error covariance information for the one object provides an improvement in finding a maximum P (sub c) which, in some cases, may offer real utility. The equations to be used are presented and their use discussed.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Upper Bound on Orbital Debris Collision Probability When Only One Object Has Position Uncertainty Information

No abstract available

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Upper Bound on High Speed Satellite Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, PC †, have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum PC. If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but potentially useful Pc upper bound.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty. Also, in its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch algorithms. The generation of this direct, empirical form of the state error covariance matrix is independent of the dimensionality of the observations. Mixed degrees of freedom for an observation set are allowed. As is the case with any simple, empirical sample variance problems, the presented approach offers an opportunity (at least in the case of weighted least squares) to investigate confidence interval estimates for the error covariance matrix elements. The diagonal or variance terms of the error covariance matrix have a particularly simple form to associate with either a multiple degree of freedom chi-square distribution (more approximate) or with a gamma distribution (less approximate). The off diagonal or covariance terms of the matrix are less clear in their statistical behavior. However, the off diagonal covariance matrix elements still lend themselves to standard confidence interval error analysis. The distributional forms associated with the off diagonal terms are more varied and, perhaps, more approximate than those associated with the diagonal terms. Using a simple weighted least squares sample problem, results obtained through use of the proposed technique are presented. The example consists of a simple, two observer, triangulation problem with range only measurements. Variations of this problem reflect an ideal case (perfect knowledge of the range errors) and a mismodeled case (incorrect knowledge of the range errors).

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the un-certainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗