Engineering topics

Gaffney, Jim A. (ORCID:0000000224080047)

Publications and source records attributed to Gaffney, Jim A. (ORCID:0000000224080047).

4 records

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed transformation toward improving the machine-learned NLTE models of ICF simulations

The integration of machine-learning techniques into inertial confinement fusion (ICF) simulations has emerged as a powerful approach for enhancing computational efficiency. By replacing the costly nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) model with machine-learning models, significant reductions in calculation time have been achieved. However, determining how to optimize machine-learning-based NLTE models in order to match ICF simulation dynamics remains challenging, underscoring the need for physically relevant error metrics and strategies to enhance model accuracy with respect to these metrics. Thus, we propose novel physics-informed transformations designed to emphasize energy transport, use these transformations to establish new error metrics, and demonstrate that they yield smaller errors within reduced principal-component spaces compared to conventional transformations. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning thermodynamically constrained equations of state with uncertainty

Numerical simulations of high energy-density experiments require equation of state (EOS) models that relate a material’s thermodynamic state variables—specifically pressure, volume/density, energy, and temperature. EOS models are typically constructed using a semi-empirical parametric methodology, which assumes a physics-informed functional form with many tunable parameters calibrated using experimental/simulation data. Since there are inherent uncertainties in the calibration data (parametric uncertainty) and the assumed functional EOS form (model uncertainty), it is essential to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve confidence in EOS predictions. Model uncertainty is challenging for UQ studies since it requires exploring the space of all possible physically consistent functional forms. Thus, it is often neglected in favor of parametric uncertainty, which is easier to quantify without violating thermodynamic laws. This work presents a data-driven machine learning approach to constructing EOS models that naturally captures model uncertainty while satisfying the necessary thermodynamic consistency and stability constraints. We propose a novel framework based on physics-informed Gaussian process regression (GPR) that automatically captures total uncertainty in the EOS and can be jointly trained on both simulation and experimental data sources. A GPR model for the shock Hugoniot is derived, and its uncertainties are quantified using the proposed framework. We apply the proposed model to learn the EOS for the diamond solid state of carbon using both density functional theory data and experimental shock Hugoniot data to train the model and show that the prediction uncertainty is reduced by considering thermodynamic constraints.

Sharma, Himanshu (ORCID:000900050235718X)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Suppressing simulation bias in multi-modal data using transfer learning

Abstract Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is multi-dimensional. Simulations, however, often suffer from an inherent bias. Estimation of this bias may be poorly constrained not only because of data sparsity, but also because traditional predictive models fit only one type of observed outputs, such as scalars or images, instead of all available output data modalities, which might have been acquired and simulated at great cost. To break this limitation and open up the path for multi-modal calibration, we propose to combine a novel, transfer learning technique for suppressing the bias with recent developments in deep learning, which allow building predictive models with multi-modal outputs. First, we train an initial neural network model on simulated data to learn important correlations between different output modalities and between simulation inputs and outputs. Then, the model is partially retrained, or transfer learned, to fit the experiments; a method that has never been implemented in this type of architecture. Using fewer than 10 inertial confinement fusion experiments for training, transfer learning systematically improves the simulation predictions while a simple output calibration, which we design as a baseline, makes the predictions worse. We also offer extensive cross-validation with real and carefully designed synthetic data. The method described in this paper can be applied to a wide range of problems that require transferring knowledge from simulations to the domain of experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗