Engineering topics

Gallagher, Peter T

Publications and source records attributed to Gallagher, Peter T.

3 records

DOE OSTI2012

CORONAL MASS EJECTION MASS, ENERGY, AND FORCE ESTIMATES USING STEREO

Understanding coronal mass ejection (CME) energetics and dynamics has been a long-standing problem, and although previous observational estimates have been made, such studies have been hindered by large uncertainties in CME mass. Here, the two vantage points of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) COR1 and COR2 coronagraphs were used to accurately estimate the mass of the 2008 December 12 CME. Acceleration estimates derived from the position of the CME front in three dimensions were combined with the mass estimates to calculate the magnitude of the kinetic energy and driving force at different stages of the CME evolution. The CME asymptotically approaches a mass of 3.4 {+-} 1.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 15} g beyond {approx}10 R{sub Sun }. The kinetic energy shows an initial rise toward 6.3 {+-} 3.7 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 29} erg at {approx}3 R{sub Sun }, beyond which it rises steadily to 4.2 {+-} 2.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 30} erg at {approx}18 R{sub Sun }. The dynamics are described by an early phase of strong acceleration, dominated by a force of peak magnitude of 3.4 {+-} 2.2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 14} N at {approx}3 R{sub Sun }, after which a force of 3.8 {+-} 5.4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 13} N takes effect between {approx}7 and 18 R{sub Sun }. These results are consistent with magnetic (Lorentz) forces acting at heliocentric distances of {approx}<7 R{sub Sun }, while solar wind drag forces dominate at larger distances ({approx}>7 R{sub Sun }).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2012

TOWARD RELIABLE BENCHMARKING OF SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING METHODS

Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of producing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to determine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.46 ({>=}C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 ({>=}M1.0), and 0.41 ({>=}C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex prediction systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

STEREO DIRECT IMAGING OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION-DRIVEN SHOCK TO 0.5 AU

Fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) generate standing or bow shocks as they propagate through the corona and solar wind. Although CME shocks have previously been detected indirectly via their emission at radio frequencies, direct imaging has remained elusive due to their low contrast at optical wavelengths. Here we report the first images of a CME-driven shock as it propagates through interplanetary space from 8 R{sub sun} to 120 R{sub sun} (0.5 AU), using observations from the STEREO Heliospheric Imager. The CME was measured to have a velocity of {approx}1000 km s{sup -1} and a Mach number of 4.1 {+-} 1.2, while the shock front standoff distance ({Delta}) was found to increase linearly to {approx}20 R{sub sun} at 0.5 AU. The normalized standoff distance ({Delta}/D{sub O} ) showed reasonable agreement with semi-empirical relations, where D{sub O} is the CME radius. However, when normalized using the radius of curvature, {Delta}/R{sub O} did not agree well with theory, implying that R{sub O} was underestimated by a factor of {approx}3-8. This is most likely due to the difficulty in estimating the larger radius of curvature along the CME axis from the observations, which provide only a cross-sectional view of the CME.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗