Ganushkina, Natalia Yu

DOE OSTI2020

Using Multiple Signatures to Improve Accuracy of Substorm Identification

Abstract We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from 1–31 January 2005. We show that this procedure is capable of rejecting false positive identifications and filling data gaps that appear in individual lists. The resulting combined onset lists produce a waiting time distribution that is comparable to previously published results, and superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind driving conditions and magnetospheric response during the resulting onset times are also comparable to previous results. Comparison of the substorm onset list from the MHD model to that obtained from observational data reveals that the MHD model reproduces many of the characteristic features of the observed substorms, in terms of solar wind driving, magnetospheric response, and waiting time distribution. Heidke skill scores show that the MHD model has statistically significant skill in predicting substorm onset times.

Haiducek, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Space Radiation and Plasma Effects on Satellites and Aviation: Quantities and Metrics for Tracking Performance of Space Weather Environment Models

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center has been leading communitywide space science and space weather model validation projects for many years. These efforts have been broadened and extended via the newly launched International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/). Its objective is to track space weather models' progress and performance over time, a capability that is critically needed in space weather operations and different user communities in general. The Space Radiation and Plasma Effects Working Team of the afore mentioned International Forum works on one of the many focused evaluation topics and deals with five different subtopics (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiationall.php) and varieties of particle populations: Surface Charging from tens of eV to 50keV electrons and internal charging due to energetic electrons from hundreds keV to several MeVs. Single event effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays (several MeV to TeV), total dose due to accumulation of doses from electrons (>100 keV) and protons (>1 MeV) in a broad energy range, and radiation effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays at aviation altitudes. A unique aspect of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects focus area is that it bridges the space environments, engineering, and user communities. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status and to suggest a guide for how to best validate space environment models for operational/engineering use, which includes selection of essential space environment and effect quantities and appropriate metrics.

Zheng, Yihua↗