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Gattiker, James R.

Publications and source records attributed to Gattiker, James R..

11 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sequential Monte Carlo for Cut-Bayesian Posterior Computation

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We prove finite sample concentration bounds for estimators derived from the proposed method along with a linear tempering extension and apply these results to a realistic setting where a computer model is misspecified. We then illustrate the SMC method for inference in a modular chemical reactor example that includes submodels for reaction kinetics, turbulence, mass transfer, and diffusion. The samples obtained are commensurate with a direct-sampling approach that consists of running multiple Markov chains, with computational efficiency gains using the SMC method. Overall, the SMC method presented yields a novel, rigorous approach to computing with cut-Bayesian posterior distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Systems Process Modeling, Analysis, and Experiment Design [Slides]

This presentation is to be used in Feynman Center outreach discussions. It describes public information about some Los Alamos interests and activities in modeling and analysis in energy systems including carbon capture and direct air capture. In particular this addresses the CCSI2 project’s open-source toolkit and ongoing partnerships, as well as summarizing the published Feynman Center capability snapshot on direct air capture.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Direct Air Capture of CO2 (DAC) [Tech Snapshot]

Researchers at Los Alamos have extensive capabilities in design, testing and optimization of: (1) new capture materials based on membrane separation, amine and other solvent and sorbent separation, and porous materials; (2) biological capture methods, particularly algae and plants; (3) full-scale systems using science-based virtual learning; and (4) system performance under specific meteorological conditions, impacts of CO2 capture via atmospheric data and simulations, and availability of energy and storage capacity. The goal for Los Alamos is advancing our physical technologies and engineered systems approaches from the development phase to a minimal viable product in the energy sector for commercial purposes. Los Alamos is seeking strategic commercialization partners to work with us in advancing these capabilities and technologies for commercial viability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Emulation Methods for Computer Models with High Dimensional Output

This Master’s Capstone project will present a comparison of statistical models for computer simulation studies. The four models included in this comparison study were chosen for both their proven and diverse methodologies. We will present a case study on hurricane flood data in the Delaware bay which highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each model when applied to a very large spatial field. As computers have gotten faster, we have become interested in modeling increasingly large spatial fields in both size and resolution. Statistical algorithms that are able to efficiently handle these fields have never been more important. We therefore find this comparison to be extremely topical.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Absorber Column CFD model validation against PNNL’s device-scale absorber column on the LCFS unit

Absorber column has been widely used for CO 2 capture in the coal-fired power plants. High-fidelity CFD models play an important role in absorber column design and solvents optimization, which help enhance the CO 2 capture efficiency and reduce the operation cost. This report provides a comprehensive description of the development of CFD absorber models at two different levels, the design and implementation of PNNL’s device-scale absorber column experiment, and the methodology to combine the CFD results, experiment data, and Aspen model for a better understanding of the interface area in packed column. A composite model is firstly proposed in the Discrete Element Method (DEM) packing process, which can model the complex geometry of various packing elements. This generates a realistic packing pattern and accurate packing porosity ε and specific area a p compared to the actual values for absorber column used in LCFS. Two level of CFD absorber models were developed, namely the full-size column model (FCM) to simulate the entire packed column with a focus on the wall/entrance effects, and the representative column model (RCM) to simulate a section of column with a focus on the sensitivity study of interface area. A Design of Experiment (DoE) plan was developed to guide the collection of 100 run CFD data and 12 experiment runs. The 100 CFD runs were carried out in the RCM with Pro-Pak packing and cover a wide operation range and solvent properties. Impact of influential factors on the interface area in packed column were investigated in details. The CFD interface area was then combined with the experimental data and Aspen model to infer some information of the effective contact angle in the column. The accuracy and uncertainties in the interface area and contact angle can be quantified.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2019

Combining Observational and Computational Uncertainty in Calibration Experiments

Traditional computer experiments using emulators have treat the emulator output as containing no error; however, this is not always feasible, as there exist computational codes which produce stochastic output, and future computations may require a balance between the time or resources to run the code and the accuracy of the output. This paper proposes a framework for incorporating both computational uncertainty and observational uncertainty into an analysis using a Gaussian process regression and calibration, and provides an example using simulated output from the one-dimensional diffusion equation. The particular values of observational and computation uncertainty which minimize a cost function are obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dynamic Bayesian Influenza Forecasting in the United States with Hierarchical Discrepancy (with Discussion)

Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are consequential. Producing timely and accurate influenza forecasts, however, have proven challenging due to noisy and limited data, an incomplete understanding of the disease transmission process, and the mismatch between the disease transmission process and the data-generating process. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic Bayesian (DB) flu forecasting model that exploits model discrepancy through a hierarchical model. The DB model allows forecasts of partially observed flu seasons to borrow discrepancy information from previously observed flu seasons. We compare the DB model to all models that competed in the CDC’s 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 flu forecasting challenges. The DB model outperformed all models in both challenges, indicating the DB model is a leading influenza forecasting model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

An Early Quantum Computing Proposal

The D-Wave 2X is the third generation of quantum processing created by D-Wave. NASA (with Google and USRA) and Lockheed Martin (with USC), both own D-Wave systems. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) purchased a D-Wave 2X in November 2015. The D-Wave 2X processor contains (nominally) 1152 quantum bits (or qubits) and is designed to specifically perform quantum annealing, which is a well-known method for finding a global minimum of an optimization problem. This methodology is based on direct execution of a quantum evolution in experimental quantum hardware. While this can be a powerful method for solving particular kinds of problems, it also means that the D-Wave 2X processor is not a general computing processor and cannot be programmed to perform a wide variety of tasks. It is a highly specialized processor, well beyond what NNSA currently thinks of as an “advanced architecture.”A D-Wave is best described as a quantum optimizer. That is, it uses quantum superposition to find the lowest energy state of a system by repeated doses of power and settling stages. The D-Wave produces multiple solutions to any suitably formulated problem, one of which is the lowest energy state solution (global minimum). Mapping problems onto the D-Wave requires defining an objective function to be minimized and then encoding that function in the Hamiltonian of the D-Wave system. The quantum annealing method is then used to find the lowest energy configuration of the Hamiltonian using the current D-Wave Two, two-level, quantum processor. This is not always an easy thing to do, and the D-Wave Two has significant limitations that restrict problem sizes that can be run and algorithmic choices that can be made. Furthermore, as more people are exploring this technology, it has become clear that it is very difficult to come up with general approaches to optimization that can both utilize the D-Wave and that can do better than highly developed algorithms on conventional computers for specific applications. These are all fundamental challenges that must be overcome for the D-Wave, or similar, quantum computing technology to be broadly applicable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

PNNL Report on the Development of Bench-scale CFD Simulations for Gas Absorption across a Wetted Wall Column

This report is prepared for the demonstration of hierarchical prediction of carbon capture efficiency of a solvent-based absorption column. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is first developed to simulate the core phenomena of solvent-based carbon capture, i.e., the CO 2 physical absorption and chemical reaction, on a simplified geometry of wetted wall column (WWC) at bench scale. Aqueous solutions of ethanolamine (MEA) are commonly selected as a CO 2 stream scrubbing liquid. CO 2 is captured by both physical and chemical absorption using highly CO 2 soluble and reactive solvent, MEA, during the scrubbing process. In order to provide confidence bound on the computational predictions of this complex engineering system, a hierarchical calibration and validation framework is proposed. The overall goal of this effort is to provide a mechanism-based predictive framework with confidence bound for overall mass transfer coefficient of the wetted wall column (WWC) with statistical analyses of the corresponding WWC experiments with increasing physical complexity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗