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George C. Hurtt

Publications and source records attributed to George C. Hurtt.

4 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25°×0.25°) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.

land use land cover change↗
NASA NTRS2020

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Forest dynamics are the processes of recruitment, growth, death, and turnover of the constituent tree species of the forest community. These processes are driven by disturbances both natural and anthropogenic. McDowell et al. review recent progress in understanding the drivers of forest dynamics and how these are interacting and changing in the context of global climate change. The authors show that shifts in forest dynamics are already occurring, and the emerging pattern is that global forests are tending toward younger stands with faster turnover as old-growth forest with stable dynamics are dwindling.

land-use change↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tracking 2020 Decreases in Carbon Dioxide Due to the COVID19 Pandemic in NASA’s GEOS Modeling system: Implications for Space-Based Carbon Monitoring

The COVID19 pandemic led to abrupt, worldwide changes in human activity and related emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases that are unprecedented in modern times. NASA satellites have demonstrated their ability to observe some of these impacts, particularly in relation to short-lived gases like nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is emitted primarily from transportation. Bottom-up analyses of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions suggest that the growth of atmospheric CO2 has also slowed, but differences are much more subtle than for NO2 because of the lifetime of atmospheric CO2 and sectoral differences in emission reductions. Estimates of CO2 from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) provide a unique view of COVID19 impacts, but observed changes in the column-average CO2 can be difficult to interpret because of gaps in spatial coverage. Assimilating these data into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), an integrated Earth system model with an advanced Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS), helped to reveal changes in CO2 that are consistent with separate, bottom-up analyses of emissions reductions. Both indicate that from February-April of 2020, the growth in CO2 over Europe, North America, and Asia was roughly 0.3 ppm less than during the previous four years. Anomalies derived from gap-filled GEOS OCO-2 CoDAS products contribute to a joint effort by the world’s space agencies to track COVID19 impacts on the Earth. However, attribution of these changes is complicated by interannual variability in atmospheric circulation and the influence of climate on ocean and land carbon sinks. We discuss these results from the perspective of space-based carbon monitoring, which has received considerable support over the past decade from NASA. Our results demonstrate the accomplishments of current sensors and data assimilation systems, but also highlight challenges in providing high quality, low latency information to the public. In particular, understanding and attributing CO2 changes during 2020 requires year-specific information about land and ocean fluxes, which is often delayed for months or even years. We discuss current limitations and potential solutions to address these lags, which would support more reliable and timely space-based carbon monitoring.

COVID-19↗