Engineering topics

Glymour, Clark

Publications and source records attributed to Glymour, Clark.

3 records

NASA NTRS2005

Development and Testing of Data Mining Algorithms for Earth Observation

The new algorithms developed under this project included a principled procedure for classification of objects, events or circumstances according to a target variable when a very large number of potential predictor variables is available but the number of cases that can be used for training a classifier is relatively small. These "high dimensional" problems require finding a minimal set of variables -called the Markov Blanket-- sufficient for predicting the value of the target variable. An algorithm, the Markov Blanket Fan Search, was developed, implemented and tested on both simulated and real data in conjunction with a graphical model classifier, which was also implemented. Another algorithm developed and implemented in TETRAD IV for time series elaborated on work by C. Granger and N. Swanson, which in turn exploited some of our earlier work. The algorithms in question learn a linear time series model from data. Given such a time series, the simultaneous residual covariances, after factoring out time dependencies, may provide information about causal processes that occur more rapidly than the time series representation allow, so called simultaneous or contemporaneous causal processes. Working with A. Monetta, a graduate student from Italy, we produced the correct statistics for estimating the contemporaneous causal structure from time series data using the TETRAD IV suite of algorithms. Two economists, David Bessler and Kevin Hoover, have independently published applications using TETRAD style algorithms to the same purpose. These implementations and algorithmic developments were separately used in two kinds of studies of climate data: Short time series of geographically proximate climate variables predicting agricultural effects in California, and longer duration climate measurements of temperature teleconnections.

Glymour, Clark↗

NASA NTRS2005

Applications of Principled Search Methods in Climate Influences and Mechanisms

Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.

Glymour, Clark↗

NASA NTRS1998

On-board Science Understanding: NASA Ames' Efforts

In the near future NASA intends to explore various regions of our solar system using robotic devices such as rovers, spacecraft, airplanes, and/or balloons. Such platforms will likely carry imaging devices, and a variety of analytical instruments intended to evaluate the chemical and mineralogical nature of the environment(s) that they encounter. Historically, mission operations have involved: (1) return of scientific data from the craft; (2) evaluation of the data by space scientists; (3) recommendations of the scientists regarding future mission activity; (4) commands for achieving these activities being transmitted to the craft; and (5) the activity being undertaken. This cycle is then repeated for the duration of the mission with command opportunities once or perhaps twice per day. In a rapidly changing environment, such as might be encountered by a rover traversing hundreds of meters a day or a spacecraft encountering an asteroid, this historical cycle is not amenable to rapid long range traverses, discovery of novelty, or rapid response to any unexpected situations. In addition to real-time response issues, the nature of imaging and/or spectroscopic devices are such that tremendous data volumes can be acquired, for example during a traverse. However, such data volumes can rapidly exceed on-board memory capabilities prior to the ability to transmit it to Earth. Additionally, the necessary communication band-widths are restrictive enough so that only a small portion of these data can actually be returned to Earth. Such scenarios clearly require the enabling of some crucial decisions to be made on-board by these robotic explorers. These decisions transcend the electromechanical control, health, and navigation issues associated with robotic operations. Instead they focus upon a long term goal of automating scientific discovery based upon data returned by sensors of the robot craft. Such an approach would eventually enable it to understand what is interesting because the data deviates from expectations generated by current theories/models of planetary processes that could have resulted in the observed data. Such interesting data and/or conclusions can then be selectively transmitted to Earth thus reducing memory and communications demands.

Roush, Ted L.↗