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Goebel, Kai F.

Publications and source records attributed to Goebel, Kai F..

Validation of Model-Based Prognostics for Pneumatic Valves in a Cryogenic Fueling Demonstration Testbed

Because valves control many critical operations, they are prime candidates for deployment of prognostic algorithms. But, similar to the situation with most other components, examples of failures experienced in the field are hard to come by. This lack of data impacts the ability to test and validate prognostic algorithms. A solution sometimes employed to overcome this shortcoming is to perform run to failure experiments in a lab. However, the mean time to failure of valves is typically very high (possibly lasting decades), preventing evaluation within a reasonable time frame. Therefore, a mechanism to observe development of fault signatures considerably faster is sought. Described here is a testbed that addresses these issues by allowing the physical injection of leakage faults (which are the most common fault mode) into pneumatic valves. What makes this testbed stand out is the ability to modulate the magnitude of the fault almost arbitrarily fast. With that, the performance of end-of-life estimation algorithms can be tested. Further, the testbed is mobile and can be connected to valves in the field. This mobility helps to bring the overall process of prognostic algorithm development for this valve a step closer to validation. The paper illustrates the development of a model-based prognostic approach that uses data from the testbed for partial validation.

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

Saha, Bhaskar

Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

Saha, Bhaskar

Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

Saha, Bhaskar

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors

Accelerated Aging with Electrical Overstress and Prognostics for Power MOSFETs

Power electronics play an increasingly important role in energy applications as part of their power converter circuits. Understanding the behavior of these devices, especially their failure modes as they age with nominal usage or sudden fault development is critical in ensuring efficiency. In this paper, a prognostics based health management of power MOSFETs undergoing accelerated aging through electrical overstress at the gate area is presented. Details of the accelerated aging methodology, modeling of the degradation process of the device and prognostics algorithm for prediction of the future state of health of the device are presented. Experiments with multiple devices demonstrate the performance of the model and the prognostics algorithm as well as the scope of application. Index Terms Power MOSFET, accelerated aging, prognostics

Saha, Sankalita

Prognostics for Electronics Components of Avionics Systems

Electronics components have and increasingly critical role in avionics systems and for the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research filed as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management. This paper reports on a prognostics application for electronics components of avionics systems, in particular, its application to the Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). The remaining useful life prediction for the IGBT is based on the particle filter framework, leveraging data from an accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. The accelerated aging test provided thermal-electrical overstress by applying thermal cycling to the device. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of the steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

Celaya, Jose R.

Modeling, Detection, and Disambiguation of Sensor Faults for Aerospace Applications

Sensor faults continue to be a major hurdle for systems health management to reach its full potential. At the same time, few recorded instances of sensor faults exist. It is equally difficult to seed particular sensor faults. Therefore, research is underway to better understand the different fault modes seen in sensors and to model the faults. The fault models can then be used in simulated sensor fault scenarios to ensure that algorithms can distinguish between sensor faults and system faults. The paper illustrates the work with data collected from an electro-mechanical actuator in an aerospace setting, equipped with temperature, vibration, current, and position sensors. The most common sensor faults, such as bias, drift, scaling, and dropout were simulated and injected into the experimental data, with the goal of making these simulations as realistic as feasible. A neural network based classifier was then created and tested on both experimental data and the more challenging randomized data sequences. Additional studies were also conducted to determine sensitivity of detection and disambiguation efficacy to severity of fault conditions.

Balaban, Edward