Engineering topics

Goldberg, Richard

Publications and source records attributed to Goldberg, Richard.

6 records

NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Horton, Radley M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Tracing the Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 Using TIMED/SABER Measurements

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above the mesospheric maximum was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 deg. S to 83 deg. N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlatoins and to identify the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers.

Goldberg, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2004

Packaging a Successful NASA Mission to Reach a Large Audience with a Small Budget. Earth's Dynamic Space: Solar-Terrestrial Physics and NASA's Polar Mission

To showcase the on-going and wide-ranging scope of the Polar science discoveries, the Polar science team has created a one-stop shop for a thorough introduction to geospace physics, in the form of a DVD with supporting website. The DVD, Earth's Dynamic Space: Solar-Terrestrial Physics & NASA's Polar Mission, can be viewed as an end-to-end product or split into individual segments and tailored to lesson plans. Capitalizing on the Polar mission and its amazing science return, the Polar team created an exciting multi-use DVD intended for audiences ranging from a traditional classroom and after school clubs, to museums and science centers. The DVD tackles subjects such as the aurora, the magnetosphere and space weather, whilst highlighting the science discoveries of the Polar mission. This platform introduces the learner to key team members as well as the science principles. Dramatic visualizations are used to illustrate the complex principles that describe Earth's dynamic space. In order to produce such a wide-ranging product on a shoe-string budget, the team poured through existing NASA resources to package them into the Polar story. Team members also created visualizations using Polar data to complement the NASA stock footage. Scientists donated their time to create and review scripts to make this a real team effort, working closely with the award winning audio-visual group at JHU/Applied Physics Laboratory. The team was excited to be invited to join NASA's Sun-Earth Day 2005 E/PO program and the DVD will be distributed as part of the supporting educational packages.

Fox, Nicola J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation

New and published climate-model results are discussed which indicate that global warming favors increased rates of forest disturbance as a result of weather more likely to cause forest fires, convective wind storms, coastal flooding, and hurricanes. New sensitivity tests carried out with a vegetation model indicate that climate-induced increases in disturbance could, in turn, significantly alter the total biomass and compositional response of forests to future warming. An increase in disturbance frequency is also likely to increase the rate at which natural vegetation responses to future climate change. The results reinforce the hypothesis that forests could be significantly altered by the first part of the next century. The modeling also confirms the potential utility of selected time series of fossil pollen data for investigating the poorly understood natural patterns of century-scale climate variability.

Overpeck, Jonathan T.↗