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Granat, Robert

Publications and source records attributed to Granat, Robert.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Nowcasting Earthquakes: Imaging the Earthquake Cycle in California With Machine Learning

We propose a new machine learning-based method for nowcasting earthquakes to image the time-dependent earthquake cycle. The result is a timeseries that may correspond to the process of stress accumulation and release. The timeseries are constructed by using principal component analysis of regional seismicity. The patterns are found as eigenvectors of the cross-correlation matrix of a collection of seismicity timeseries in a coarse grained regional spatial grid (pattern recognition via unsupervised machine learning). The eigenvalues of this matrix represent the relative importance of the various eigenpatterns. Using the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, we compute the weighted correlation timeseries of the regional seismicity. This timeseries has the property that the weighted correlation generally decreases prior to major earthquakes in the region, and increases suddenly just after a major earthquake occurs. As in a previous paper, we find that this method produces a nowcasting timeseries that resembles the hypothesized regional stress accumulation and release process characterizing the earthquake cycle. We then address the problem of whether the timeseries contain information regarding future large earthquakes. For this, we compute a receiver operating characteristic and determine the decision thresholds for several future time periods of interest (optimization via supervised machine learning). We find that signals can be detected that can be used to characterize the information content of the timeseries. These signals may be useful in assessing present and near-future seismic hazards.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

GPS Time Series Analysis of Southern California Associated with the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor/Cucapah Earthquake

The Magnitude 7.2 El-Mayor/Cucapah earthquake the occurred in Mexico on April 4, 2012 was well instrumented with continuous GPS stations in California. Large Offsets were observed at the GPS stations as a result of deformation from the earthquake providing information about the co-seismic fault slip as well as fault slip from large aftershocks. Information can also be obtained from the position time series at each station.

earthquake↗
NASA NTRS2011

Complex Faulting Across the Los Angeles Portion of the Pacific-North American Plate Boundary

We propose to observe seismically and tectonically active regions in northern and southern California using UAVSAR to support EarthScope activities. We will test the earthquake forecasting methodology developed by Rundle through NASA's QuakeSim project by observing regions indicated as having high probability for earthquakes in the near future (5-10 years). The UAVSAR flights will serve as a baseline for pre-earthquake activity. Should an earthquake occur during the course of this project, we will also be able to observe postseismic motions associated with the earthquakes.

earthquakes↗
NASA NTRS2009

Simulating and Detecting Radiation-Induced Errors for Onboard Machine Learning

Spacecraft processors and memory are subjected to high radiation doses and therefore employ radiation-hardened components. However, these components are orders of magnitude more expensive than typical desktop components, and they lag years behind in terms of speed and size. We have integrated algorithm-based fault tolerance (ABFT) methods into onboard data analysis algorithms to detect radiation-induced errors, which ultimately may permit the use of spacecraft memory that need not be fully hardened, reducing cost and increasing capability at the same time. We have also developed a lightweight software radiation simulator, BITFLIPS, that permits evaluation of error detection strategies in a controlled fashion, including the specification of the radiation rate and selective exposure of individual data structures. Using BITFLIPS, we evaluated our error detection methods when using a support vector machine to analyze data collected by the Mars Odyssey spacecraft. We found ABFT error detection for matrix multiplication is very successful, while error detection for Gaussian kernel computation still has room for improvement.

data analysis↗
NASA NTRS2008

Understanding Earthquake Fault Systems Using QuakeSim Analysis and Data Assimilation Tools

We are using the QuakeSim environment to model interacting fault systems. One goal of QuakeSim is to prepare for the large volumes of data that spaceborne missions such as DESDynI will produce. QuakeSim has the ability to ingest distributed heterogenous data in the form of InSAR, GPS, seismicity, and fault data into various earthquake modeling applications, automating the analysis when possible. Virtual California simulates interacting faults in California. We can compare output from long time history Virtual California runs with the current state of strain and the strain history in California. In addition to spaceborne data we will begin assimilating data from UAVSAR airborne flights over the San Francisco Bay Area, the Transverse Ranges, and the Salton Trough. Results of the models are important for understanding future earthquake risk and for providing decision support following earthquakes. Improved models require this sensor web of different data sources, and a modeling environment for understanding the combined data.

earthquake simulations↗
NASA NTRS2007

Algorithm-Based Fault Tolerance for Numerical Subroutines

A software library implements a new methodology of detecting faults in numerical subroutines, thus enabling application programs that contain the subroutines to recover transparently from single-event upsets. The software library in question is fault-detecting middleware that is wrapped around the numericalsubroutines. Conventional serial versions (based on LAPACK and FFTW) and a parallel version (based on ScaLAPACK) exist. The source code of the application program that contains the numerical subroutines is not modified, and the middleware is transparent to the user. The methodology used is a type of algorithm- based fault tolerance (ABFT). In ABFT, a checksum is computed before a computation and compared with the checksum of the computational result; an error is declared if the difference between the checksums exceeds some threshold. Novel normalization methods are used in the checksum comparison to ensure correct fault detections independent of algorithm inputs. In tests of this software reported in the peer-reviewed literature, this library was shown to enable detection of 99.9 percent of significant faults while generating no false alarms.

Tumon, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2006

Progress in Computational Simulation of Earthquakes

GeoFEST(P) is a computer program written for use in the QuakeSim project, which is devoted to development and improvement of means of computational simulation of earthquakes. GeoFEST(P) models interacting earthquake fault systems from the fault-nucleation to the tectonic scale. The development of GeoFEST( P) has involved coupling of two programs: GeoFEST and the Pyramid Adaptive Mesh Refinement Library. GeoFEST is a message-passing-interface-parallel code that utilizes a finite-element technique to simulate evolution of stress, fault slip, and plastic/elastic deformation in realistic materials like those of faulted regions of the crust of the Earth. The products of such simulations are synthetic observable time-dependent surface deformations on time scales from days to decades. Pyramid Adaptive Mesh Refinement Library is a software library that facilitates the generation of computational meshes for solving physical problems. In an application of GeoFEST(P), a computational grid can be dynamically adapted as stress grows on a fault. Simulations on workstations using a few tens of thousands of stress and displacement finite elements can now be expanded to multiple millions of elements with greater than 98-percent scaled efficiency on over many hundreds of parallel processors (see figure).

Donnellan, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2004

Statistical analysis of geodetic networks for detecting regional events

We present an application of hidden Markov models (HMMs) to analysis of geodetic time series in Southern California. Our model fitting method uses a regularized version of the deterministic annealing expectation-maximization algorithm to ensure that model solutions are both robust and of high quality.

geodetic networks↗