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Greaves, Mark T.

Publications and source records attributed to Greaves, Mark T..

Machine Intelligence to Detect, Characterise, and Defend against Influence Operations in the Information Environment

Social media has enabled a new era of manipulation in the information and cognitive domains. Deceptive content—misleading, falsified, and fabricated—is routinely created and spread in the modern social media environment with the intent to create confusion and widen political and social divides, and exploit the societal conflict exacerbated by these divides in the real-world (aka physical domain). Such disinformation campaigns demonstrate a threat to the integrity of economic, political, cultural, public health, and national security institutions around the world. In this work we overview our artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities to detect, describe, and defend against information operations on Twitter as an example social platform to understand the influence of misleading and falsified content diffusion and better enable those charged with defending against such manipulation to enable responsive parties to counter it. We first present novel linguistically-informed deep learning (DL) models for misinformation and disinformation detection, and present an in-depth linguistic analysis of psycho-linguistic markers across broad deception categories. We then demonstrate how our models perform in the multilingual and multimodal setting and categorize falsified and misleading content based on the intent to deceive. We also provide a large-scale analysis to describe user behavior and spread patterns while engaging with deceptive content and report novel findings about the immediate diffusion of deceptive content by characterizing the vulnerable sub-populations and their demographics, and explicitly measuring speed and scale of deception spread to uncover who shares deceptive content, how quickly, how much, and how evenly. In addition, we measure audience reactions to misinformation and disinformation at scale, distinguishing the reactions of users identified as bots versus humans. Finally, we take advantage of deep translation and generation models to create unique solutions for real-time defense against digital deception and discuss how to apply causal inference to prescribe and intervene into strategic communications jointly across information, cognitive, and physical domains.

artificial intelligence, deep learning, neural lan↗

Evaluation and Validation Approaches for Simulation of Social Behavior: Challenges and Opportunities

While models of social systems have grown in scope to represent increasingly complex phenomena, efforts to validate these models against observations suffer from a number of challenges that include the lack of shared approaches, the use of single-dimensional evaluation criteria, and the difficulty in evaluating causal mechanisms. Moreover, current evaluation approaches suffer from sensitivity of the existing measurements to initial conditions and model assumptions, and failure to account for uncertainty. These effects lead to the lack of generalizability to new contexts, inability to replicate the validation approach for new models, and difficulties in interpretation of validation results. These challenges can be addressed by building a set of diverse and robust evaluation metrics and by developing best practices for comparative, reproducible validation of varied social simulation approaches against real-world data. Herein, we outline several best practices for data-drive model validation, such as defining evaluation strategies consistent with the intended use case and defining broad comparison criteria to highlight both model strengths and weaknesses. Leveraging common validation practices will enable robust analysis of simulation performance across diverse social scenarios and modeling approaches.

Saldanha, Emily G.↗

Identification of Program Signatures from Cloud Computing System Telemetry Data

Malicious cloud computing activity can take many forms, including running unauthorized programs in a virtual environment. Detection of these malicious activities while preserving the privacy of the user is an important research challenge. Prior work has shown the potential viability of using cloud service billing metrics as a mechanism for proxy identification of malicious programs. Previously this novel detection method has been evaluated in a synthetic and isolated computational environment. In this paper we demonstrate the ability of billing metrics to identify programs, in an active cloud computing environment, including multiple virtual machines running on the same hypervisor. The open source cloud computing platform OpenStack, is used for private cloud management at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. OpenStack provides a billing tool (Ceilometer) to collect system telemetry measurements. We identify four different programs running on four virtual machines under the same cloud user account. Programs were identified with up to 95% accuracy. This accuracy is dependent on the distinctiveness of telemetry measurements for the specific programs we tested. Future work will examine the scalability of this approach for a larger selection of programs to better understand the uniqueness needed to identify a program. Additionally, future work should address the separation of signatures when multiple programs are running on the same virtual machine.

Nichols, Nicole M.↗