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Greve, Ralf

Publications and source records attributed to Greve, Ralf.

Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SICOPOLIS-AD v1: an open-source adjoint modeling framework for ice sheet simulation enabled by the algorithmic differentiation tool OpenAD

We present a new capability of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS that enables flexible adjoint code generation via source transformation using the open-source algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool OpenAD.The adjoint code enables efficient calculation of the sensitivities of a scalar-valued objective function or quantity of interest (QoI) to a range of important, often spatially varying and uncertain model input variables, including initial and boundary conditions, as well as model parameters.Compared to earlier work on the adjoint code generation of SICOPOLIS, our work makes several important advances:(i) it is embedded within the up-to-date trunk of the SICOPOLIS repository – accounting for 1.5 decades of code development and improvements – and is readily available to the wider community;(ii) the AD tool used, OpenAD, is an open-source tool;(iii) the adjoint code developed is applicable to both Greenland and Antarctica, including grounded ice as well as floating ice shelves, with an extended choice of thermodynamical representations.A number of code refactorization steps were required. They are discussed in detail in an Appendix as they hold lessons for the application of AD to legacy codes at large.As an example application, we examine the sensitivity of the total Antarctic Ice Sheet volume to changes in initial ice thickness, austral summer precipitation, and basal and surface temperatures across the ice sheet.Simulations of Antarctica with floating ice shelves show that over 100 years of simulation the sensitivity of total ice sheet volume to the initial ice thickness and precipitation is almost uniformly positive, while the sensitivities to surface and basal temperature are almost uniformly negative. Sensitivity to austral summer precipitation is largest on floating ice shelves from Queen Maud to Queen Mary Land. The largest sensitivity to initial ice thickness is at outlet glaciers around Antarctica. Comparison between total ice sheet volume sensitivities to surface and basal temperature shows that surface temperature sensitivities are higher broadly across the floating ice shelves, while basal temperature sensitivities are highest at the grounding lines of floating ice shelves and outlet glaciers. A uniformly perturbed region of East Antarctica reveals that, among the four control variables tested here, total ice sheet volume is the most sensitive to variations in austral summer precipitation as formulated in SICOPOLIS.Comparison between adjoint- and finite-difference-derived sensitivities shows good agreement, lending confidence that the AD tool is producing correct adjoint code.The new modeling infrastructure is freely available at http://www.sicopolis.net (last access: 2 April 2020) under the development trunk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SICOPOLIS-AD: Quick-Start Manual (Revision 0.11)

SICOPOLIS-AD is a version of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS used to produce adjoint sensitivities of chosen control variables. It can be used to assess the sensitivity of some quantity of interest to perturbations in variables that may affect that quantity of interest. For example, it can be used to comprehensively and quantitatively assess exactly how the volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet is sensitive to changes in surface temperature at each point on the ice sheet. This document provides basic startup and troubleshooting methods, as well as some best practices for making changes in the code for the purposes of adjoint production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

SeaRISE↗