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Griffel, L. Michael

Publications and source records attributed to Griffel, L. Michael.

11 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based battery sizing optimization tool for hybridizing generation plants

Hybrid generation and energy storage systems offer the ability to increase flexibility of the combined asset. This flexibility can be used to increase provision of services already provided by the generation asset, such as timing sale of electricity to the energy market during high price periods, and also enable provision of additional services, such as ancillary services or contribute to resource adequacy. From a generation asset owner perspective, the decision to hybridize includes selecting an energy storage system that, among other factors, maximizes financial performance of the energy storage investment. Yet, existing tools to optimize energy storage sizing are either too rudimentary (i.e., based on “rules of thumb”) or too complex to implement (i.e., require specialized engineering and software knowledge and a high-performance computer to run). This work presents a novel deep learning-based battery sizing optimization tool that is designed to help generation asset owners easily assess preliminary sizing considerations for potential battery investments to hybridize their generation facility. The tool uses deep learning to predict revenue over a broad search space of potential battery sizes, estimates capital and operating costs (including accounting for battery degradation), and computes financial performance of each potential battery system investment, recommending a system with maximum financial performance. The tool is tested and validated for hydropower assets. Finally, this tool will help a greater cross-section of industry consider investments in battery systems, increasing their revenue and helping them compete in rapidly evolving electrify markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Value proposition of coatings or new alloys on hammer wear

The goal of this Case Study was to elucidate the value of improving of the life of parts that wear within a system in terms of the additional material cost that it takes to reach the level of improvement. We recognize that the failure limits and system performance are representative of a single system that may or may not exist in the real world, however, our goal of this project was not to provide an answer for a specific system or to provide a full understanding the economics of all potential systems. The analysis was performed using relative changes from the base alloy cost and considered relative improvements in part life in order to generalize the comparison without referencing specific alloys or coatings that might be employed. Ultimately, this work provides a first check of the potential for improving wear characteristics of grinder hammers to provide a meaningful and impactful benefit to biomass preprocessing and conversion systems. Key takeaways include: • Increasing the life of hammers by 3× provides a delivered feedstock cost benefit of approximately $\$2.25$/dry ton assuming that the relative cost of the hammer material of construction is not increased. • The feasible area of relative hammer cost increase ranges from 110% to 122% of the relative life increase, i.e., a 3× life increase can cost 3.66× the cost of the original hammers • Beyond a 3× increase in relative hammer life, little economic benefit is realized • Even when moisture impacts are included, the relationship between relative hammer cost and relative hammer life was reduced only slightly to a range of 108% to 116% • From the simulation we would expect delivered feedstock costs to be within ±$1.10/dry ton, based on the uncertainty analysis

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of artificial neural network performance for classification of potato plants infected with potato virus Y using spectral data on multiple varieties and genotypes

Potato virus Y (Potyviridae, PVY) is a plant virus that poses a significant threat to potato producers on a global basis. The pathogen has disrupted seed potato supplies and negatively impacted yield and quality of commercial potato crops. The potato industry currently manages PVY infection levels via insecticide applications, regional seed certification programs that rely on field scouting to visually assess individual plants for infection status, and destructive and costly tissue sampling coupled with laboratory assays. Despite these efforts, PVY continues to confound potato industry stakeholders resulting in economic harm. Remote sensing and machine learning provide for the development of new tools to more accurately detect and spatially quantify PVY-infected plants versus the current state of the art. However, there is a need to understand how the occurrence of many different potato varieties impact the dynamics of developing models to detect potato plants impacted with PVY and their potential effectiveness. This study evaluates classification modelling outcomes using spectral datasets collected in different temporal and spatial environments (greenhouse and a production field) on multiple potato varieties consisting of labelled instances of plants infected with PVY and those not infected with the virus. A modelling framework was developed to support iterative modelling runs using artificial neural network (ANN) architectures configured as binary classifiers to develop sample populations to support statistical analysis on model performance using specific spectral subsets. When using spectral data to detect PVY-infected plants, ANN models achieved the highest mean accuracy of 0.894 on a single variety. Conversely, the same ANN model architecture only achieved a mean accuracy of 0.575 on a spectral data set representing 29 potato breeding lines. Additionally, statistical analysis indicates spectral regions including the red edge, near infrared and shortwave infrared contain more important spectral features for the ANN classifier introduced in this research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The nth-plant scenario for blended feedstock conversion and preprocessing nationwide: biorefineries and depots

The sustainability of the biofuel industry depends on the development of a mature conversion technology on a national level that can take advantage of the economies of scale: the nth-plant. Defining the future location and supply logistics of conversion plants is imperative to ultimately transform the nation’s renewable biomass resources into cost-competitive, high-performance feedstock for production of biofuels and bioproducts. Since the US has put restrictions on production levels of conventional biofuels from edible resources, the nation needs to plan for the widespread accessibility and development of the cellulosic biofuel scenario. Conventional feedstock supply systems will be unable to handle cellulosic biomass nationwide, making it essential to expand the industry with an advanced feedstock supply system incorporating a distributed network of preprocessing depots and conversion plants, or biorefineries. Current studies are mostly limited to designing supply systems for specific regions of the country. We developed a national database with potential locations for depots and biorefineries to meet the nation’s target demand of cellulosic biofuel. Blended feedstock with switchgrass and corn stover (harvested by either a two- or three-pass method) are considered in a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model to deliver on-spec biomass that considers both, a desired quantity and quality at the biorefinery. A total delivered feedstock cost that is less than $79.07/dt (2016$) is evaluated for years 2022, 2030, and 2040. In 2022, 124 depots and 59 biorefineries could be supplied with 42.8 million dt of corn stover and switchgrass. In 2030 and 2040, the total accessible biomass could increase to 215% and 393% respectively when compared to 2022. However, an $8/dry tons reduction in targeted delivery cost could reduce total accessible biomass by 67%. Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas were identified as potential states with a strong biofuel economy given that they had six or more biorefineries located in all scenarios. In some scenarios, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Mississippi and South Carolina would greatly benefit from a depot network as these could only deliver to a biorefinery in a nearby state. To elaborate the impact of a nationwide consideration, the findings were compared with existing literature for different US regions. We also present results for biorefinery capacities that are double, triple, and quadruple in size.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Landscape Management to Reduce Biomass Feedstock Access Costs

Using geospatial, machine learning, and optimization techniques, a field scoring and design framework known as the bioenergy Landscape Environmental Assessment and Design System (bioLEADS) was developed and used to show through modelling that it is possible to reduce biomass feedstock access costs, improve field revenue, and shift intensive row crop production away from subfield areas susceptible to erosion and low in soil organic carbon. The purpose of bioLEADS is to automate agricultural field selection and subfield allocation to perennial energy crop production while incorporating reduced biomass feedstock access costs to support attaining the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) cost targets.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Setting a baseline for Integrated Landscape Design: Cost and risk assessment in herbaceous feedstock supply chains

The literature on bioenergy has pointed out that financial risks and limited performance benchmarks are leading barriers to wide-spread industry expansion. The purpose of this paper is to document a baseline cost and risk assessment from the perspective of biorefinery management for two herbaceous feedstocks, switchgrass and corn stover, in an application of Integrated Landscape Design (ILD). Integrating energy crops into row crops has attracted considerable attention leading to a variety of ways to implement ILD. However, variation in production conditions, different methods of implementing unit operations, and technology performance variability are among many factors leading to financial risk facing biorefineries from feedstock supply based on ILD. Utilizing data from field-based trials on switchgrass and corn stover in Virginia and Iowa in the United States, we estimate feedstock logistics cost and characterize it by a distribution of potential outcomes. The results show that, across fields included in the study, logistics cost for switchgrass vary from 73 per Mg to 171 per Mg. For corn stover, the inter-field variation in cost ranges from 83 per Mg to 105 per Mg. Results for intra-field uncertainty show that the cost for switchgrass ranges from 58 per Mg to 74 per Mg, and for corn stover they range from 50 per Mg to 65 per Mg. Furthermore, these results inform a baseline from which improvements in ILD can be compared, and provide biorefinery management with a starting point for cost and risk estimates of feedstock from ILD.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Investigating the Efficacy of Integrating Energy Crops into Non-Profitable Subfields in Iowa

We present that within-field spatial variability reduces growers’ return on investment and overall productivity while potentially increasing negative environmental impacts through increased soil erosion, nutrient runoff, and leaching. The hypothesis that integrating energy crops into non-profitable segments of agricultural fields could potentially increase grain yield and biomass feedstock production was tested in this study using a statewide analysis of predominantly corn- and soy-producing counties in Iowa. Basic and rigorous controls on permissible soil and soil-carbon losses were imposed on harvest of crop residues to enhance year-to-year sustainability of crop and residue production. Additional criteria limiting harvesting costs and focus on large-area subfields for biomass production were imposed to reduce the impacts of energy crop integration on grain production. Model simulations were conducted using 4 years (2013–2016) of soil, weather, crop yield, and management practice data on all counties in Iowa. Miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and crop-residue-based bioenergy feedstock systems were evaluated as biomass. Average energy crop and plant residue harvesting efficiencies were estimated at 50 and 60%, respectively. Because of higher potential yields, average logistics costs for miscanthus-based biomass production were 15 and 23% lower than switchgrass-based and crop residue-based biomass productions, respectively, under basic sustainability controls, and 17 and 26% lower under rigorous sustainability controls. Lastly, subfield shape, size, area, and harvest equipment size were the dominant factors influencing harvesting cost and efficiency suggesting that in areas where subfields are predominantly profitable or harvesting efficiencies low, other options such as prairie strips, buffer zones around fields, and riparian areas should be investigated for more profitable biomass production and sustainable farming systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗