Impact of SMAP Soil Moisture Data Assimilation on Soil Moisture and on Warm Season Convection Forecasts
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Hain, Christopher R..
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Remote sensing datasets, particularly acquired by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors, have become increasingly important in severe weather disaster impact studies given their ability to observe the Earth largely irrespective of weather and sunlight conditions. The reliability of existing SAR change detection products applied on a pair of SAR images is constrained by the limitation of current methods to differentiate and classify disaster specific changes from anthropogenic surface alterations. Moreover, the inherent properties of the sensors, variations in SAR backscatter due to changes in surface conditions, and other factors exacerbate these limitations. We proposed a novel procedure expanding on earlier SAR-based change detection methods to exclude anthropogenic alterations and other sources of ambiguity that might lead to inaccurate mapping of the impacts of severe weather disasters. We applied the proposed procedure that is based on long term interferometric and amplitude-based change detection analyses of Sentinel- 1 SAR imagery to two study sites recently impacted by severe weather disasters (Flooding post severe weather events in urban centers; Hailstorm damage on crops). For the first case study, Sentinel-1 SLC scenes from two flood events in the Houston area (April 2016 flooding event and Hurricane Harvey of August-September 2017) were used to construct a flood map depicting areas repeatedly affected by the flood. Pixels with consistent coherence values in the pre-disaster coherence stack were retained for comparison with the pre- and post-disaster coherence stack and pixels with significant decline (greater than 60%) in coherence values were retained in the final flood map. The findings of the applied technique were calibrated and validated through datasets from NOAA/NWS Service storm reports, aerial imaging (NOAA and Civil Air Patrol), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reporting, and targeted collections of NASA’s L-band UAVSAR data. Findings and products derived from the adopted methodology can be useful in disaster response and mitigation activities.
The WMO’s World Weather Research Program (WWRP) Research and Development and Forecast Demonstration Projects (RDP/FDP). Taken place during the Winter Olympics (February-March) of 2018. Focused on the measurement, physics, and improved prediction of heavy orographic snow in the Pyeong Chang region of South Korea.
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The deep learning model shows promise for predicting areas of high wildfire potential. Full evaluation of the model performance is ongoing. Currently, the developed deep learning model is better overall at predicting the number of fires over the acres burned. Acres burned is dependent on location, suppression plan, and current conditions. Antecedent conditions are only one piece of the equation. In-season changes are not accounted for. An ignition source is required, which further complicates the model training and prediction.
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Analysis was performed to determine whether a lightning flash could be associated with every reported lightning-initiated wildfire that grew to at least 4 km(exp 2). In total, 905 lightning-initiated wildfires within the Continental United States (CONUS) between 2012 and 2015 were analyzed. Fixed and fire radius search methods showed that 81–88% of wildfires had a corresponding lightning flash within a 14 day period prior to the report date. The two methods showed that 52–60% of lightning-initiated wildfires were reported on the same day as the closest lightning flash. The fire radius method indicated the most promising spatial results, where the median distance between the closest lightning and the wildfire start location was 0.83 km, followed by a 75th percentile of 1.6 km and a 95th percentile of 5.86 km. Ninety percent of the closest lightning flashes to wildfires were negative polarity. Maximum flash densities were less than 0.41 flashes km(exp 2) for the 24 h period at the fire start location. The majority of lightning-initiated holdover events were observed in the Western CONUS, with a peak density in north-central Idaho. A twelve day holdover event in New Mexico was also discussed, outlining the opportunities and limitations of using lightning data to characterize wildfires.
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Global food production in the developing world occurs within sub-hectare fields that are difficult to identify with moderate resolution satellite imagery. Knowledge about the distribution of these fields is critical in food security programs. We developed a semi-automated image segmentation approach using wall-to-wall sub-meter imagery with high-performance computing to map crop area (CA) throughout Tigray, Ethiopia that encompasses over 41,000 km (exp 2). Multiple processing streams were tested to minimize mapping error while applying five unique smoothing kernels to capture differences in land surface texture associated to CA. Typically, very-small fields (mean < 2 ha) have a smooth image roughness compared to natural scrub/shrub woody vegetation at the ~1m scale and these features can be segmented in panchromatic imagery with multi-level histogram thresholding. Multi-temporal very-high resolution (VHR) panchromatic imagery with multi-spectral VHR are sufficient in extracting critical CA information needed in food security programs. A 2011 to 2015 CA map was produced, using over 3000 WorldView-1 panchromatic images wall-to-wall in 1/2 deg mosaics for Tigray, Ethiopia. CA was evaluated with nearly 3000 WorldView-2 2m multispectral 250 X 250 m image subsets by seven expert interpretations, and with in-situ global positioning system photography. CA estimates ranged from 32 to 41% in sub regions of Tigray with median maximum per bin commission and omission errors of 11% and 1% respectively, with most of the error occurring in bins <15%. This empirical, simple, and low direct cost approach via U.S. government license agreement to access commercial VHR data, could be a viable big-data high-performance computing methodology to extract wall-to-wall CA for other regions of the world that have very-small agriculture fields with similar image texture."
Can we use modeled information of the land surface and characteristics of lightning beyond flash occurrence to increase the identification and prediction of wildfires? The goals of this study are to: combine observed cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes with real-time land surface model output; and compare data with areas where lightning did not start a wildfire to determine what land surface conditions, rainfall observations, and lightning characteristics were responsible for causing wildfires.
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Drought is one of the most serious climatic and natural disasters inflicting serious impacts on the socio-economy of Morocco, which is characterized both by low-average annual rainfall and high irregularity in the spatial distribution and timing of precipitation across the country. This work aims to develop a comprehensive and integrated method for drought monitoring based on remote sensing techniques. The main input parameters are derived monthly from satellite data at the national scale and are then combined to generate a composite drought index presenting different severity classes of drought. The input parameters are: Standardized Precipitation Index calculated from satellite-based precipitation data since 1981 (CHIRPS), anomalies in the day-night difference of Land Surface Temperature as a proxy for soil moisture, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index anomalies from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and Evapotranspiration anomalies from surface energy balance modeling. All of these satellite-based indices are being used to monitor vegetation condition, rainfall and land surface temperature. The weighted combination of these input parameters into one composite indicator takes into account the importance of the rainfall-based parameter (SPI). The composite drought index maps were generated during the growing seasons going back to 2003. These maps have been compared to both the historical, in situ precipitation data across Morocco and with the historical yield data across different provinces with information being available since 2000. The maps are disseminated monthly to several main stakeholders' groups including the Ministry of Agriculture and Department of Water in Morocco.
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