Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty of climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols
In this article, a research strategy for improving the estimates of the clear sky forcing is defined. The strategy encompasses five major, and necessarily coordinated, activities: surface-based observations of aerosol chemical and physical properties and their influence on the radiation field; aircraft-based observations of the same properties; process studies to refine model treatments; satellite observations of aerosol abundance and size distribution; and modeling studies to demonstrate consistency between the observations, to provide guidance for determination of the most important parameters, and to allow extension of the limited set of observations to the global scale. Such a strategy, if aggressively implemented, should allow these effects to be incorporated into climate models in the next several years. A similar strategy for defining the magnitude of the cloudy sky forcing should also be possible, but the less firm understanding of this forcing suggests that research of a more exploratory nature be carried out before undertaking a research strategy of the magnitude recommended for the clear sky forcing.