Engineering topics

Hall, T.

Publications and source records attributed to Hall, T..

6 records

NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗

NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of Convergent Spray Technology(TM) Spray Process for Roof Coating Application

The overall goal of this project was to demonstrate the feasibility of(CST) Convergent Spray Technology (Trademark) for the roofing industry. This was accomplished by producing an environmentally compliant coating utilization recycled materials, a CST(Trademark) spray process portable application cart, and hand-held applicator with a CST(Trademark) spray process nozzle. The project culminated with application of this coating to a nine hundred sixty square foot metal for NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama.

COATINGS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Intense turbulence in the polar mesosphere - Rocket and radar measurements

Two radars respectively operating at 53.5 MHz and 224 MHz have been used to simultaneously measure the polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs) during the launch of a sounding rocket designed to measure the fluctuations in the electron density in the same height range. Some features of the data obtained are consistent with nearly isotropic, intense, meter-scale turbulence on the day of the observations. A dissipation rate is derived from the spectral width of the 53.5 MHz backscatter signal and from the rocket electron density fluctuation data; the diffusive subrange occurs at a wavelength which is a factor of 10 greater than the viscous subrange. This corresponds to a Schmidt number of about 100.

Kelley, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1972

The origin and chemical composition of the earth's core

The process of core formation in the earth is subject to the constraints that it be nearly simultaneous with accretion and yet occur in a manner that the mantle retains radiogenic Xe-129 produced from the extinct radioactivity of I-129 with a half life of 17.6 million y. From these constraints, it appears that the only feasible mechanism is the segregation of an Fe-FeS melt. Trace element abundances in major classes of meteorites and the silicate fractions of the earth show that not only there is a high depletion of sulphur in the crust and the mantle, but that it is even more highly depleted than the rare gases, water and the halogens. From the nature of this depletion pattern and the fact that any model of accretion of the earth will necessarily produce an Fe-FeS melt, it is concluded that the light element in the core is largely sulphur with minor amounts of carbon. A consequence of this mode of core formation is found to be the availability of K-40 radioactive heat production in the liquid core, estimated at about 10 to the 19th power erg/s at the present time.

Murthy, V. R.↗