Engineering topics

Hall, Timothy M.

Publications and source records attributed to Hall, Timothy M..

8 records

NASA NTRS2016

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Human influence on climate↗

NASA NTRS2014

ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

simulation↗

NASA NTRS2013

On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey Landfall

Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).

hurricanes↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗

NASA NTRS1999

Transport Experiments

MM II defined a series of experiments to better understand and characterize model transport and to assess the realism of this transport by comparison to observations. Measurements from aircraft, balloon, and satellite, not yet available at the time of MM I [Prather and Remsberg, 1993], provide new and stringent constraints on model transport, and address the limits of our transport modeling abilities. Simulations of the idealized tracers the age spectrum, and propagating boundary conditions, and conserved HSCT-like emissions probe the relative roles of different model transport mechanisms, while simulations of SF6 and C02 make the connection to observations. Some of the tracers are related, and transport diagnostics such as the mean age can be derived from more than one of the experiments for comparison to observations. The goals of the transport experiments are: (1) To isolate the effects of transport in models from other processes; (2) To assess model transport for realistic tracers (such as SF6 and C02) for comparison to observations; (3) To use certain idealized tracers to isolate model mechanisms and relationships to atmospheric chemical perturbations; (4) To identify strengths and weaknesses of the treatment of transport processes in the models; (5) To relate evaluated shortcomings to aspects of model formulation. The following section are included:Executive Summary, Introduction, Age Spectrum, Observation, Tropical Transport in Models, Global Mean Age in Models, Source-Transport Covariance, HSCT "ANOY" Tracer Distributions, and Summary and Conclusions.

Hall, Timothy M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Studies of African wave disturbances with the GISS GCM

Simulations made with the general circulation model of the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS GCM) run at 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude horizontal resolution are analyzed to determine the model's representation of African wave disturbances. Waves detected in the model's lower troposphere over northern Africa during the summer monsoon season exhibit realistic wavelengths of about 2200 km. However, power spectra of the meridional wind show that the waves propagate westward too slowly, with periods of 5-10 days, about twice the observed values. This sluggishness is most pronounced during August, consistent with simulated 600-mb zonal winds that are only about half the observed speeds of the midtropospheric jet. The modeled wave amplitudes are strongest over West Africa during the first half of the summer but decrease dramatically by September, contrary to observational evidence. Maximum amplitudes occur at realistic latitudes, 12 deg - 20 deg N, but not as observed near the Atlantic coast. Spectral analyses suggest some wave modulation of precipitation in the 5-8 day band, and compositing shows that precipitation is slightly enhanced east of the wave trough, coincident with southerly winds. Extrema of low-level convergence west of the wave troughs, coinciding with northerly winds, were not preferred areas for simulated precipitation, probably because of the drying effect of this advection, as waves were generally north of the humid zone. The documentation of African wave disturbances in the GISS GCM is a first step toward considering wave influences in future GCM studies of Sahel drought.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Age as a diagnostic of stratospheric transport

Estimates of stratospheric age from observations of long-lived trace gases with increasing tropospheric concentrations invoke the implicit assumption that an air parcel has been transported intact from the tropopical tropopause. However, because of rapid and irreversible mixing in the stratosphere, a particular air parcel cannot be identified with one that left the troposphere at some prior time. The parcel contains a mix of air with a range of transit times, and the mean value over this range is the most appropriate definition of age. The measured tracer concentration is also a mean over the parcel, but its value depends both on the transit time distribution and the past history of the tracer in the troposphere. In principle, only if the tropospheric concentration is increasing linearly can the age be directly inferred. We illustrate these points by employing both a one-dimensional diffusive analog of stratospheric transport, and the general circulation model (GCM) of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). Within the limits of the GCM, we estimate the time over which tropospheric tracer concentrations must be approximately linear in order to determine stratospheric age unambiguously; the concentration of an exponentially increasing tracer is a function only of age if the growth time constant is greater than about 7 years, which is true for all the chlorofluorocarbons. More rapid source variations (for example, the annual cycle in CO2) have no such direct relationship with age.

Hall, Timothy M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Simulations of the trend and annual cycle in stratospheric CO2

Literature data on mid-latitude balloon soundings of CO2 and aircraft sampling in the lower polar stratosphere during the winter are used as a fundamental test of tracer transport in the middle atmospheric version of the GISS GCM (Rind et al., 1990) to predict the propagation into the stratosphere of the annual increase and annual cycle of CO2. The results predict significant propagation of the CO2 annual cycle into the lower stratosphere, an effect which must be accounted for when interpreting observations.

Hall, Timothy M.↗