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Han, Yongxiang

Publications and source records attributed to Han, Yongxiang.

10 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occurrence of Warm Freezing Rain: Observation and Modeling Study

Freezing rain has been normally considered to be composed of supercooled raindrops when the 2 m air temperature (hereafter T as ) is below freezing. However, according to a statistical survey of freezing rain observations in China from 2000 to 2019, we find that there were 656 events that occurred at T as greater than 0°C (hereafter warm freezing rain and denoted by WFR), which account for 7% of the total freezing rain observations. Additionally, nearly 3% (266 observations) of freezing rain events occurred when the near-surface wet-bulb temperature was greater than 0°C. The modeling and sensitivity experiments on the nonequilibrium raindrop temperature (hereafter T r ) how that the temperature difference between raindrops and the atmosphere is the main cause of WFR. The magnitudes of the Δ T ar (difference between raindrop temperature T r and air temperature T a ) and Δ T ur (difference between T r and wet-bulb temperature T w ) are determined by the raindrop diameter D, temperature lapse rate $\Gamma$, and relative humidity RH. Increases of D and $\Gamma$, and a decrease of RH enhance Δ T ar and Δ T ur and thus the occurrence of WFR. Further simulations of 4 idealized and 370 real sounding profiles reveal that either the T a or the T w cannot properly distinguish the WFR events. When considering the temperature difference between raindrops and the atmosphere, the WFR can form by the “melting of solid hydrometeors” or “supercooled warm rain process.” This study can also deepen our understanding of the conditions of WFR and freezing rain formation at different altitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrative investigation of dust emissions by dust storms and dust devils in North Africa

Dust aerosols in North Africa account for >50% of the global total; however dust emission areas are still unclear. Based on the analysis of dust storms simulated with the numerical Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, satellite aerosol index (AI), and the dust data observed at 300 meteorological stations over 20 years, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of dust storm, dust devil and AI are compared and analyzed. From this study, the results show that: 1) There are two dust emission mechanisms: the dynamically-dominated dust storm and thermally-dominated dust devil; 2) Dust storms occur most frequently in Spring and are concentrated in the areas of Grand Erg Occidental Desert to the Erg Chech-Adrar Desert, the northern part of Grand Erg Oriental, the Atouila Desert to the Ouarane Desert, the Mediterranean coast, the eastern side of Nubian Desert and Bodélé Depression; 3) Dust devils occur most frequently from April to August and are mainly concentrated in the central part of North Africa, especially in the southwest of Hoggar Mountains to the west of Air Mountains, the border area of Egypt - Sudan - Libya and the vicinity of Tibesti Plateau; 4) The spatio-temporal distribution of AI is correlated more with the dust devils emission whereas the annual average contributions by dust storms and dust devils are 61.3% and 38.7%, respectively. This study discovers a new area of dust emissions by dust devils, and provides a better explanation for the spatio-temporal distribution of AI in North Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗