Engineering topics

Hannah, W. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Hannah, W. M..

4 records

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Simulation of CONUS Precipitation by Storm Type in E3SM

Abstract Conventional low‐resolution (LR) climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1), have well‐known biases in simulating the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation. Approaches to next‐generation E3SM, whether the high‐resolution (HR) or multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration, improve the simulation of the intensity and frequency of precipitation, but regional and seasonal deficiencies still exist. Here we apply a methodology to assess the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to simulated precipitation in E3SMv1‐HR and E3SMv1‐MMF relative to E3SMv1‐LR. Across the United States, E3SMv1‐MMF provides the best simulation in terms of precipitation accumulation, frequency and intensity from MCSs and TCs compared to E3SMv1‐LR and E3SMv1‐HR. All E3SMv1 configurations overestimate precipitation amounts from and the frequency of ETCs over CONUS, with conventional E3SMv1‐LR providing the best simulation compared to observations despite limitations in precipitation intensity within these events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing Two Approaches for Enhancing the Range of Simulated Scales in the E3SMv1 and the Impact on the Character of Hourly US Precipitation

Abstract Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models is essential for understanding and projecting water cycle changes across scales. Progress has been hampered by persistent deficiencies in representing precipitation frequency, intensity, and timing in current models. Here, we analyze simulated US precipitation in the low‐resolution (LR) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and assess the effect of two approaches to enhance the range of explicitly resolved scales: high‐resolution (HR) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which incur similar computational expense. Both E3SMv1‐MMF and E3SMv1‐HR capture more intense and less frequent precipitation on hourly and daily timescales relative to E3SMv1‐LR. E3SMv1‐HR improves the intensity over the Eastern and Northwestern US during winter, while E3SMv1‐MMF improves the intensity over the Eastern US and summer diurnal timing over the Central US. These results indicate that both methods may be needed to improve simulations of different storm types, seasons, and regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations

Realistically representing the present-day characteristics of extreme precipitation has been a challenge for global climate models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model resolution and physics, but is also due to a lack of consistency in gridded observations. In this study, we use three observation datasets, including gridded rain gauge and satellite data, to assess historical simulations from sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. We separately evaluate summer and winter precipitation over the United States (US) with a comprehensive set of extreme precipitation indices, including an assessment of precipitation frequency, intensity and spatial structure. The observations exhibit significant differences in their estimates of area-average intensity distributions and spatial patterns of the mean and extremes of precipitation over the US. In general, the CMIP6 multi-model mean performs better than most individual models at capturing daily precipitation distributions and extreme precipitation indices, particularly in comparison to gauge-based data. Also, the representation of the extreme precipitation indices by the CMIP6 models is better in the summer than winter. Although the ‘standard’ horizontal-resolution can vary significantly across CMIP6 models, from ~0.7° to ~2.8°, we find that resolution is not a good indicator of model performance. Overall, our results highlight common biases in CMIP6 models and demonstrate that no single model is consistently the most reliable across all indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗