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Hansen, Scott K.

Publications and source records attributed to Hansen, Scott K..

Impacts of Permeability Heterogeneity and Background Flow on Supercritical CO 2 Dissolution in the Deep Subsurface

Motivated by CO 2 capture and sequestration (CCS) design considerations, we consider the coupled effects of permeability heterogeneity and background flow on the dissolution of a supercritical CO 2 lens into an underlying deep, confined aquifer. We present the results of a large-scale Monte Carlo simulation study examining the interaction of background flow rate and three parameters describing multi-Gaussian log-permeability fields: mean, variance, and correlation length. Hundreds of high-resolution simulations were performed using the PFLOTRAN finite volume software to model CO 2 dissolution in a kilometer-scale aquifer over 1,000 years. Predictive dimensionless scaling relationships relating CO 2 dissolution rate to heterogeneity statistics, Rayleigh (Ra) and Péclet (Pe) numbers were developed for both gravitationally dominated free convection to background flow-dominated forced convection regimes. An empirical criterion, Pe = Ra 3/4 , was discovered for regime transition. All simulations converged quickly to a quasi-steady, approximately linear dissolution rate. However, this rate displayed profound variability between permeability field realizations sharing the same heterogeneity statistics, even under mild permeability heterogeneity. In general, increased heterogeneity was associated with a lower mean and higher variance of dissolution rate, undesirable from a CCS design perspective. The relationship between dissolution rate and background flow was found to be complex and nonlinear. Dimensionless scaling relationships were uncovered for a number of special cases. Results call into question the validity of the Boussinesq approximation in the context of modest-to-high background flow rates and the general applicability of numerical simulations without background flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Direct Breakthrough Curve Prediction From Statistics of Heterogeneous Conductivity Fields

In this paper, we present a methodology to predict the shape of solute breakthrough curves in heterogeneous aquifers at early times and/or under high degrees of heterogeneity, both cases in which the classical macrodispersion theory may not be applicable. The methodology relies on the observation that breakthrough curves in heterogeneous media are generally well described by lognormal distributions, and mean breakthrough times can be predicted analytically. The log-variance of solute arrival is thus sufficient to completely specify the breakthrough curves, and this is calibrated as a function of aquifer heterogeneity and dimensionless distance from a source plane by means of Monte Carlo analysis and statistical regression. Using the ensemble of simulated groundwater flow and solute transport realizations employed to calibrate the predictive regression, reliability estimates for the prediction are also developed. Additional theoretical contributions include heuristics for the time until an effective macrodispersion coefficient becomes applicable, and also an expression for its magnitude that applies in highly heterogeneous systems. Finally, it is seen that the results here represent a way to derive continuous time random walk transition distributions from physical considerations rather than from empirical field calibration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing the impact of model error in hydrologic time series recovery inverse problems

Hydrologic models are commonly over-smoothed relative to reality, owing to computational limitations and to the difficulty of obtaining accurate high-resolution information. When used in an inversion context, such models may introduce systematic biases which cannot be encapsulated by an unbiased “observation noise” term of the type assumed by standard regularization theory and typical Bayesian formulations. Despite its importance, model error is difficult to encapsulate systematically and is often neglected. In this paper, model error is considered for an important class of inverse problems that includes interpretation of hydraulic transients and contaminant source history inference: reconstruction of a time series that has been convolved against a transfer function (i.e., impulse response) that is only approximately known. Using established harmonic theory along with two results established here regarding triangular Toeplitz matrices, upper and lower error bounds are derived for the effect of systematic model error on time series recovery for both well-determined and over-determined inverse problems. It is seen that use of additional measurement locations does not improve expected performance in the face of model error. A Monte Carlo study of a realistic hydraulic reconstruction problem is presented, and the lower error bound is seen informative about expected behavior. Finally, a possible diagnostic criterion for blind transfer function characterization is also uncovered.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Local Equilibrium and Retardation Revisited

We present that in modeling solute transport with mobile-immobile mass transfer (MIMT), it is common to use an advection-dispersion equation (ADE) with a retardation factor, or retarded ADE. This is commonly referred to as making the local equilibrium assumption (LEA). Assuming local equilibrium, Eulerian textbook treatments derive the retarded ADE, ostensibly exactly. However, other authors have presented rigorous mathematical derivations of the dispersive effect of MIMT, applicable even in the case of arbitrarily fast mass transfer. We resolve the apparent contradiction between these seemingly exact derivations by adopting a Lagrangian point of view. We show that local equilibrium constrains the expected time immobile, whereas the retarded ADE actually embeds a stronger, nonphysical, constraint: that all particles spend the same amount of every time increment immobile. Eulerian derivations of the retarded ADE thus silently commit the gambler's fallacy, leading them to ignore dispersion due to mass transfer that is correctly modeled by other approaches. We then present a particle tracking simulation illustrating how poor an approximation the retarded ADE may be, even when mobile and immobile plumes are continually near local equilibrium. Finally, we note that classic “LEA” (actually, retarded ADE validity) criteria test for insignificance of MIMT-driven dispersion relative to hydrodynamic dispersion, rather than for local equilibrium.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Inferring subsurface heterogeneity from push-drift tracer tests

In this study, we consider the late-time tailing in a tracer test performed with a push-drift methodology (i.e., quasi-radial injection followed by drift under natural gradient). Numerical simulations of such tests are performed on 1000 multi-Gaussian 2-D log-hydraulic conductivity field realizations of varying heterogeneity, each under eight distinct mean flow directions. The ensemble pdfs of solute return times are found to exhibit power law tails for each considered variance of the log-hydraulic conductivity field, σ$2\atop{ln K}$. The tail exponent is found to relate straightforwardly to σ$2\atop{ln K}$ and, within the parameter space we explored, to be independent of push-phase pumping rate, pumping duration, and local-scale dispersivity. We conjecture that individual push-drift tracer tests in wells with screened intervals much greater than the vertical correlation length of the aquifer will exhibit quasi-ergodicity and that their tail exponent may be used to infer σ$2\atop{ln K}$. Lastly, we calibrate a predictive relationship of this sort from our Monte Carlo study, and apply it to data from a push-drift test performed at a site of approximately known heterogeneity—closely matching the existing best estimate of heterogeneity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CHROTRAN, 1.0

CHROTRAN is a fork of the widely-used PFLOTRAN flow and reactive transport numerical simulation code. It implements custom physics and chemistry appropriate to the design of in-situ reduction of heavy metals such as Cr(VI) in groundwater. CHROTRAN includes full dynamics for five species: the metal to be remediated, an electron donor, biofilm, a nontoxic conservative bio-inhibitor, and a biocide. Direct abiotic reduction by donor-metal interaction as well as donor-driven biomass growth and bio-reduction are modeled, along with crucial processes such as donor sorption, and biofilm inactivation. The software implementation handles heterogeneous flow fields, arbitrarily many chemical species and amendment injection points, and features full coupling between flow and reactive transport, allowing for assessment of the effect of bio-fouling.

Hansen, Scott K.↗

Push-pull tracer tests: Their information content and use for characterizing non-Fickian, mobile-immobile behavior: INFORMATION CONTENT OF PUSH-PULL TESTS

Path reversibility and radial symmetry are often assumed in push-pull tracer test analysis. In reality, heterogeneous flow fields mean that both assumptions are idealizations. In this paper, to understand their impact, we perform a parametric study which quantifies the scattering effects of ambient flow, local-scale dispersion, and velocity field heterogeneity on push-pull breakthrough curves and compares them to the effects of mobile-immobile mass transfer (MIMT) processes including sorption and diffusion into secondary porosity. We identify specific circumstances in which MIMT overwhelmingly determines the breakthrough curve, which may then be considered uninformative about drift and local-scale dispersion. Assuming path reversibility, we develop a continuous-time-random-walk-based interpretation framework which is flow-field-agnostic and well suited to quantifying MIMT. Adopting this perspective, we show that the radial flow assumption is often harmless: to the extent that solute paths are reversible, the breakthrough curve is uninformative about velocity field heterogeneity. Our interpretation method determines a mapping function (i.e., subordinator) from travel time in the absence of MIMT to travel time in its presence. A mathematical theory allowing this function to be directly “plugged into” an existing Laplace-domain transport model to incorporate MIMT is presented and demonstrated. Algorithms implementing the calibration are presented and applied to interpretation of data from a push-pull test performed in a heterogeneous environment. A successful four-parameter fit is obtained, of comparable fidelity to one obtained using a million-node 3-D numerical model. In conclusion, we demonstrate analytically and numerically how push-pull tests quantifying MIMT are sensitive to remobilization, but not immobilization, kinetics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Contaminant point source localization error estimates as functions of data quantity and model quality

We develop empirically-grounded error envelopes for localization of a point contamination release event in the saturated zone of a previously uncharacterized heterogeneous aquifer into which a number of plume-intercepting wells have been drilled. We assume that flow direction in the aquifer is known exactly and velocity is known to within a factor of two of our best guess from well observations prior to source identification. Other aquifer and source parameters must be estimated by interpretation of well breakthrough data via the advection-dispersion equation. We employ high performance computing to generate numerous random realizations of aquifer parameters and well locations, simulate well breakthrough data, and then employ unsupervised machine optimization techniques to estimate the most likely spatial (or space-time) location of the source. Tabulating the accuracy of these estimates from the multiple realizations, we relate the size of 90% and 95% confidence envelopes to the data quantity (number of wells) and model quality (fidelity of ADE interpretation model to actual concentrations in a heterogeneous aquifer with channelized flow). We find that for purely spatial localization of the contaminant source, increased data quantities can make up for reduced model quality. For space-time localization, we find similar qualitative behavior, but significantly degraded spatial localization reliability and less improvement from extra data collection. Since the space-time source localization problem is much more challenging, we also tried a multiple-initial-guess optimization strategy. Furthermore, this greatly enhanced performance, but gains from additional data collection remained limited.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements and models of reactive transport in geological media

Reactive chemical transport plays a key role in geological media across scales, from pore scale to aquifer scale. Systems can be altered by changes in solution chemistry and a wide variety of chemical transformations, including precipitation/dissolution reactions that cause feedbacks that directly affect the flow and transport regime. The combination of these processes with advective-dispersive-diffusive transport in heterogeneous media leads to a rich spectrum of complex dynamics. The principal challenge in modeling reactive transport is to account for the subtle effects of fluctuations in the flow field and species concentrations; spatial or temporal averaging generally suppresses these effects. Moreover, it is critical to ground model conceptualizations and test model outputs against laboratory experiments and field measurements. This paper emphasizes the integration of these aspects, considering carefully designed and controlled experiments at both laboratory and field scales, in the context of development and solution of reactive transport models based on continuum-scale and particle tracking approaches. We first discuss laboratory experiments and field measurements that define the scope of the phenomena and provide data for model comparison. We continue by surveying models involving advection-dispersion-reaction equation and continuous time random walk formulations. The integration of measurements and models is then examined, considering a series of case studies in different frameworks. We delineate the underlying assumptions, and strengths and weaknesses, of these analyses, and the role of probabilistic effects. Finally, we also show the key importance of quantifying the spreading and mixing of reactive species, recognizing the role of small-scale physical and chemical fluctuations that control the initiation of reactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗