LANL Contribution to NRAP-Open-IAM
NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability.
Chen, Bailian↗
Engineering topics
Harp, Dylan
Publications and source records attributed to Harp, Dylan.
DPFEHM: a differentiable subsurface physics simulator
The Earth’s subsurface is a key resource that provides energy via fossil fuels and geothermal sources, stores drinking water, and is used in the fight against climate change via carbon sequestration. Simulating the physical processes that occur in the Earth’s subsurface with computers enables better use of this resource. DPFEHM is a Julia package that includes computer models with a focus on the Earth’s subsurface, especially fluid flow, which is critical for the aforementioned applications. DPFEHM is able to solve the groundwater flow equations (single phase flow), Richards equation (air/water), the advection-dispersion equation, and the 2d wave equation. One of the key features of DPFEHM is that it supports automatic differentiation, so it can be integrated into machine learning workflows using frameworks such as Flux or PyTorch. The automatic differentiation capabilities give it the same performance as adjoint methods.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NRAP Recommended Practices for Containment Assurance and Leakage Risk Quantification
This report presents recommendations for quantitatively assessing and managing leakage risk and effective containment assurance at geologic carbon storage (GCS) sites, amidst uncertainty in site characteristics and performance. These recommended practices are a product of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP)—a multi-year collaborative research effort of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These recommended practices are organized as a set of conceptual workflows that correspond with the stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They consider aspects of site characterization, quantification of potential leakage, assessing the spatial extent of potential environmental impacts, optimizing monitoring design for detection of potential leakage, evaluation of concordance between monitored and forecasted reservoir response, assessing conformance with expected/accepted performance, and determination of the timeline over which risk of impactful leakage can be expected to abate. These conceptual workflows are intended to aid stakeholders in making risk management decisions at GCS sites and to support development of sound, risk-based justifications for characterizing the subsurface, defining area of potential leakage impact, designing site monitoring plans, selecting leakage risk management/mitigation alternatives, and estimating site closure timelines.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NRAP-open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated-assessment-model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management
Large-scale implementation of geologic carbon storage (GCS) to help reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions requires stakeholder confidence that injected CO2 will remain contained and that potential subsurface environmental risks are acceptably small and manageable. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed an open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to help address questions about a potential GCS site’s ability to effectively contain injected CO 2 and protect groundwater and other overlying environmentally sensitive receptors. NRAP-Open-IAM allows a user to: (1) incorporate relevant site geologic and injection scenario data; (2) characterize important site features and events;(3) couple fast prediction models of various system components of the engineered geologic system; and (4) execute stochastic, dynamic simulation of whole GCS system performance, leakage risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. NRAP-Open-IAM is available on GitLab (https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM), and is accompanied by multiple application examples and detailed user and developer guides.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Circumpolar observations of ice wedge melting and thermokarst pool expansion [PowerPoint]
Illustrations/images of various stages of ice wedge melting and thermokarst pool expansion are provided.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Assessment of relationship between post-injection plume migration and leakage risks at geologic CO2 storage sites
Not Available
Pawar, Rajesh J.↗
Development of quantitative metrics of plume migration at geologic CO 2 storage sites
We develop plume migration metrics based on spatial moment analysis methods that quantify the spatio–temporal evolution of plumes at geologic CO 2 storage sites. The metrics are generalized to handle any 3–D scalar attribute field values. Within the geologic CO 2 storage context, these can be parameters such as CO 2 saturation, effective pressure, overpressure, dissolved CO 2 concentration, total dissolved solids, pH, and other attributes that are critical for assessing risks. Here, the metrics are comprehensive in that they can effectively handle and account for complex continuous and discontinuous plumes and intra–plume migration. We demonstrate the metrics on simulated CO 2 plumes injected into flat and tilted reservoirs with homogeneous and heterogeneous permeability fields. Using these idealized reservoir scenarios, we demonstrate the information that the metrics extract, showing that the metrics elucidate nuances in plume migration not apparent by standard approaches to the scalar fields values.
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Integrated CO 2 Storage and Brine Extraction
Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) can reduce CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel power plants by injecting CO 2 into deep saline aquifers for storage. CCUS typically increases reservoir pressure which increases costs, because less CO 2 can be injected, and risks such as induced seismicity. Extracting brine with enhanced water recovery (EWR) from the CO 2 storage reservoir can manage and reduce pressure in the formation, decrease the risks linked to reservoir overpressure (e.g., induced seismicity), increase CO 2 storage capacity, and enable CO 2 plume management. We modeled scenarios of CO 2 injection with EWR into the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU) formation in southwest Wyoming. The Finite Element Heat and Mass Transfer Code (FEHM) was used to model CO 2 injection with brine extraction and the corresponding increase in pressure within the RSU. We analyzed the model for pressure management, CO 2 storage, CO 2 saturation, and brine extraction due to the quantity and location of brine extraction wells. The model limited CO 2 injection to a constant pressure increase of two MPa at the injection well with and without extracting brine at hydrostatic pressure. Finally, we found that brine extraction can be used as a technical and cost-effective pressure management strategy to limit reservoir pressure buildup and increase CO 2 storage associated with a single injection well.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Applications Of The Advanced Simulation Capability For Environmental Management (ASCEM) - 17253
Three applications were completed using the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM), supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management. These analyses were performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) F-Area, the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Site, and the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). At the SRS F-Area, ASCEM simulations were used to help develop cost-effective, long-term monitoring approaches for science-based site closure and management. The simulation results were used to develop a mechanistic understanding of correlations between contaminant concentrations and master variables that can be used for monitoring. At LANL, the ASCEM simulator Amanzi was integrated with a LANL-based decision support tool for the LANL onsite program. A saturated-zone site model focused on a key area of interest was developed and calibrated to measured data. This model was applied to quantify uncertainty and provide decision support to inform chromium remediation efforts. To support assessment of groundwater contamination at NNSS, ASCEM was used to calibrate hydrologic properties and flow directions using water levels observed under steady-state conditions and during four different pump tests on Pahute Mesa. The flow fields generated from these pump tests will be used to simulate transport pathways from underground nuclear tests to compare with field observations and to test alternative conceptual models of transport, which will ultimately facilitate better placement of monitoring wells. (authors)
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Applicability of aquifer impact models to support decisions at CO 2 sequestration sites
The National Risk Assessment Partnership has developed a suite of tools to assess and manage risk at CO 2 sequestration sites. This capability includes polynomial or look-up table based reduced-order models (ROMs) that predict the impact of CO 2 and brine leaks on overlying aquifers. The development of these computationally-efficient models and the underlying reactive transport simulations they emulate has been documented elsewhere (Carroll et al., 2014a; Carroll et al., 2014b; Dai et al., 2014 ; Keating et al., 2016). Here in this paper, we seek to demonstrate applicability of ROM-based analysis by considering what types of decisions and aquifer types would benefit from the ROM analysis. We present four hypothetical examples where applying ROMs, in ensemble mode, could support decisions during a geologic CO 2 sequestration project. These decisions pertain to site selection, site characterization, monitoring network evaluation, and health impacts. In all cases, we consider potential brine/CO 2 leak rates at the base of the aquifer to be uncertain. We show that derived probabilities provide information relevant to the decision at hand. Although the ROMs were developed using site-specific data from two aquifers (High Plains and Edwards), the models accept aquifer characteristics as variable inputs and so they may have more broad applicability. We conclude that pH and TDS predictions are the most transferable to other aquifers based on the analysis of the nine water quality metrics (pH, TDS, 4 trace metals, 3 organic compounds). Guidelines are presented for determining the aquifer types for which the ROMs should be applicable.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive
This dataset contains an ensemble of thermal-hydro soil parameters including porosity, thermal conductivity, thermal conductivity shape parameters, and residual saturation of peat and mineral soil. The ensemble was generated using a Null-Space Monte Carlo analysis of parameter uncertainty based on a calibration to soil temperatures collected at the Barrow Environmental Observatory site by the NGEE team. The micro-topography of ice wedge polygons present at the site is included in the analysis using three 1D column models to represent polygon center, rim and trough features. The Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) was used in the calibration to model multiphase thermal and hydrological processes in the subsurface. This dataset includes one zipped file, one pdf file, and one csv file.This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. The citation for that publication can be found within the references section.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Thermal effects of groundwater flow through subarctic fens: A case study based on field observations and numerical modeling
Modeling and observation of ground temperature dynamics are the main tools for understanding current permafrost thermal regimes and projecting future thaw. Until recently, most studies on permafrost have focused on vertical ground heat fluxes. Groundwater can transport heat in both lateral and vertical directions but its influence on ground temperatures at local scales in permafrost environments is not well understood. In this paper, we combine field observations from a subarctic fen in the sporadic permafrost zone with numerical simulations of coupled water and thermal fluxes. At the Tavvavuoma study site in northern Sweden, ground temperature profiles and groundwater levels were observed in boreholes. These observations were used to set up one- and two-dimensional simulations down to 2 m depth across a gradient of permafrost conditions within and surrounding the fen. Two-dimensional scenarios representing the fen under various hydraulic gradients were developed to quantify the influence of groundwater flow on ground temperature. Our observations suggest that lateral groundwater flow significantly affects ground temperatures. This is corroborated by modeling results that show seasonal ground ice melts 1 month earlier when a lateral groundwater flux is present. Further, although the thermal regime may be dominated by vertically conducted heat fluxes during most of the year, isolated high groundwater flow rate events such as the spring freshet are potentially important for ground temperatures. Finally, as sporadic permafrost environments often contain substantial portions of unfrozen ground with active groundwater flow paths, knowledge of this heat transport mechanism is important for understanding permafrost dynamics in these environments.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A response surface model to predict CO2 and brine leakage along cemented wellbores
Not Available
Jordan, Amy B.↗
Data and Model-Driven Decision Support for Environmental Management of a Chromium Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 13264
A series of site investigations and decision-support analyses have been performed related to a chromium plume in the regional aquifer beneath the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Based on the collected data and site information, alternative conceptual and numerical models representing governing subsurface processes with different complexity and resolution have been developed. The current conceptual model is supported by multiple lines of evidence based on comprehensive analyses of the available data and modeling results. The model is applied for decision-support analyses related to estimation of contaminant- arrival locations and chromium mass flux reaching the regional aquifer, and to optimization of a site monitoring-well network. Plume characterization is a challenging and non-unique problem because multiple models and contamination scenarios are consistent with the site data and conceptual knowledge. To solve this complex problem, an advanced methodology based on model calibration and uncertainty quantification has been developed within the computational framework MADS (http://mads.lanl.gov). This work implements high-performance computing and novel, efficient and robust model analysis techniques for optimization and uncertainty quantification (ABAGUS, Squads, multi-try (multi-start) techniques), which allow for solving problems with large degrees of freedom. (authors)
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