Engineering topics

Harper, Anna

Publications and source records attributed to Harper, Anna.

5 records

DOE OSTI2022

Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Abstract Southeast Asia is a region known for active land‐use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO 2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process‐based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book‐keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil‐palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Decadal biomass increment in early secondary succession woody ecosystems is increased by CO 2 enrichment

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 stimulates photosynthesis which can increase net primary production (NPP), but at longer timescales may not necessarily increase plant biomass. Here we analyse the four decade-long CO 2 -enrichment experiments in woody ecosystems that measured total NPP and biomass. CO 2 enrichment increased biomass increment by 1.05 ± 0.26 kg C m –2 over a full decade, a 29.1 ± 11.7% stimulation of biomass gain in these early-secondary-succession temperate ecosystems. This response is predictable by combining the CO 2 response of NPP (0.16 ± 0.03 kg C m –2 y –1 ) and the CO 2 -independent, linear slope between biomass increment and cumulative NPP (0.55 ± 0.17). Furthermore an ensemble of terrestrial ecosystem models fail to predict both terms correctly. Allocation to wood was a driver of across-site, and across-model, response variability and together with CO 2 -independence of biomass retention highlights the value of understanding drivers of wood allocation under ambient conditions to correctly interpret and predict CO 2 responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites

Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon–water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. For this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results indicated that most models overestimate the negative drought effects and/or underestimate the positive effects of increased precipitation on primary productivity under normal climate conditions, highlighting the need for improving eco-hydrological processes in those models in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

FACE-MDS Phase 2: Model Output

Model output from Phase 2 of the Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project. Results from 12 models simulating six elevated CO2 experiments using the protocols, met data, and other data supplied in the accompanying dataset: Phase 2 Free Air CO2 Enrichment Model-Data Synthesis: Meteorological Data and Protocols. File naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-file-table-modeldata.xml' and information about variable naming convention can be found in the file 'facemds-standard-name-table-modvars.xml'. We followed the ALMA v3 convention for meteorological variables and developed a hierarchical naming scheme for ecosystem variables. Additional info can be found in the protocols in the accompanying meteorological dataset (doi:10.15485/1480328). We replaced the original naming convention mentioned in the protocol with the one described in 'facemds-standard-name-table-modvars.xml'.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗