Engineering topics

Hathaway, David H.

Publications and source records attributed to Hathaway, David H..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2014

Observed Properties of Giant Cells

The existence of Giant Cells has been suggested by both theory and observation for over 45 years. We have tracked the motions of supergranules in SDO/HMI Doppler velocity data and find larger (Giant Cell) flows that persist for months. The flows in these cells are clockwise around centers of divergence in the north and counter-clockwise in the south. Equatorward flows are correlated with prograde flows - giving the transport of angular momentum toward the equator that is needed to maintain the Sun's rapid equatorial rotation. The cells are most pronounced at mid- and high-latitudes where they exhibit the rotation rates representative of those latitudes. These are clearly large, long-lived, cellular features, with the dynamical characteristics expected from the effects of the Sun's rotation, but the shapes of the cells are not well represented in numerical models. While the Giant Cell flow velocities are small (<10 m/s), their long lifetimes should nonetheless substantially impact the transport of magnetic flux in the Sun's near surface layers.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Sunspot Record: 1826-1980

The International Sunspot Number is used as a measure of the level of solar activity in many important studies. This includes studies of the effects of solar activity on climate change and on the generation of radioisotopes used to infer levels of solar activity going back thousands of years. Any systematic errors in the historical record of the sunspot number can profoundly alter the conclusions of these studies. There is substantial evidence that the currently accepted International Sunspot Numbers have been subjected to changes in the way the numbers are calculated and to changes in the weights given to observations of various observers. In this talk I will focus on the time period from 1826 to 1980 which covers principal observers Schwabe, Wolf, Wolfer, Brunner, and Waldmeier. Previous investigations have indicated problems associated with Schwabe's observations (1826 to 1867), the first decades of the Greenwich observations (1874 to about 1910), and the introduction of a different counting method by Waldmeier (1946-1980). I will examine the evidence for these problems and the possible solutions that might be used to provide improved estimates of the sunspot numbers and their errors over this time interval.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Meridional Flow Variations in Cycles 23 and 24: Active Latitude Control of Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes

We have measured the meridional motions of magnetic elements observed in the photosphere over sunspot cycles 23 and 24 using magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. Our measurements confirm the finding of Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) that the poleward meridional flow weakens at cycle maxima. Our high spatial and temporal resolution analyses show that this variation is in the form of a superimposed inflow toward the active latitudes. This inflow is weaker in cycle 24 when compared to the inflow in 23, the stronger cycle. This systematic modulation of the meridional flow should also modulate the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle through its influence on the Sun's polar fields. The observational evidence and the theoretical consequences (similar to those of Cameron and Schussler (2012)) will be described.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Defining the Polar Field Reversal

The polar fields on the Sun are directly related to solar cycle variability. Recently there has been interest in studying an important characteristic of the polar fields: the timing of the polar field reversals. However this characteristic has been poorly defined, mostly due to the limitations of early observations. In the past, the reversals have been calculated by averaging the flux above some latitude (i.e. 55deg or 75deg). Alternatively, the reversal could be defined by the time in which the previous polarity is completely canceled and replaced by the new polarity at 90de, precisely at the pole. We will use a surface flux transport model to illustrate the differences in the timing of the polar field reversal based on each of these definitions and propose standardization in the definition of the polar field reversal. The ability to predict the timing of the polar field reversal using a surface flux transport model will also be discussed.

Upton, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS2013

Meridional Flow Variations in Cycles 23 and 24: Active Latitude Control of Sunspot Cycle Amplitudes

We have measured the meridional motions of magnetic elements observed in the photosphere over sunspot cycles 23 and 24 using magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI. Our measurements confirm the finding of Komm, Howard, and Harvey (1993) that the poleward meridional flow weakens at cycle maxima. Our high spatial and temporal resolution analyses show that this variation is in the form of a superimposed inflow toward the active latitudes. This inflow is weaker in cycle 24 when compared to the inflow in 23, the stronger cycle. This systematic modulation of the meridional flow can modulate the amplitude of the following sunspot cycle through its influence on the Sun's polar fields.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Effects of the Observed Meridional Flow Variations since 1996 on the Sun's Polar Fields

The cause of the low and extended minimum in solar activity between Sunspot Cycles 23 and 24 was the small size of Sunspot Cycle 24 itself - small cycles start late and leave behind low minima. Cycle 24 is small because the polar fields produced during Cycle 23 were substantially weaker than those produced during the previous cycles and those (weak) polar fields are the seeds for the activity of the following cycle. The polar fields are produced by the latitudinal transport of magnetic flux that emerged in low-latitude active regions. The polar fields thus depend upon the details of both the flux emergence and the flux transport. We have measured the flux transport flows (differential rotation, meridional flow, and supergranules) since 1996 and find systematic and substantial variation in the meridional flow alone. Here we present experiments using a Surface Flux Transport Model in which magnetic field data from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI are assimilated into the model only at latitudes between 45-degrees north and south of the equator (this assures that the details of the active region flux emergence are well represented). This flux is then transported in both longitude and latitude by the observed flows. In one experiment the meridional flow is given by the time averaged (and north-south symmetric) meridional flow profile. In the second experiment the time-varying and north-south asymmetric meridional flow is used. Differences between the observed polar fields and those produced in these two experiments allow us to ascertain the effects of these meridional flow variations on the Sun s polar fields.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Reproducing the Photospheric Magnetic Field Evolution During the Rise of Cycle 24 with Flux Transport by Supergranules

We simulate the transport of magnetic flux in the Sun s photosphere by an evolving pattern of cellular horizontal flows (supergranules). Characteristics of the simulated flow pattern match observed characteristics including the velocity power spectrum, cell lifetimes, and cell pattern motion in longitude and latitude. Simulations using an average, and north-south symmetric, meridional motion of the cellular pattern produce polar magnetic fields that are too weak in the North and too strong in the South. Simulations using cellular patterns with meridional motions that evolve with the observed changes in strength and north-south asymmetry will be analyzed to see if they reproduce the polar field evolution observed during the rise of Cycle 24.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Photospheric Magnetic Flux Transport - Supergranules Rule

Observations of the transport of magnetic flux in the Sun's photosphere show that active region magnetic flux is carried far from its origin by a combination of flows. These flows have previously been identified and modeled as separate axisymmetric processes: differential rotation, meridional flow, and supergranule diffusion. Experiments with a surface convective flow model reveal that the true nature of this transport is advection by the non-axisymmetric cellular flows themselves - supergranules. Magnetic elements are transported to the boundaries of the cells and then follow the evolving boundaries. The convective flows in supergranules have peak velocities near 500 m/s. These flows completely overpower the superimposed 20 m/s meridional flow and 100 m/s differential rotation. The magnetic elements remain pinned at the supergranule boundaries. Experiments with and without the superimposed axisymmetric photospheric flows show that the axisymmetric transport of magnetic flux is controlled by the advection of the cellular pattern by underlying flows representative of deeper layers. The magnetic elements follow the differential rotation and meridional flow associated with the convection cells themselves -- supergranules rule!

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Axisymmetric Flow Properties for Magnetic Elements of Differing Strength

Aspects of the structure and dynamics of the flows in the Sun's surface shear layer remain uncertain and yet are critically important for understanding the observed magnetic behavior. In our previous studies of the axisymmetric transport of magnetic elements we found systematic changes in both the differential rotation and the meridional flow over the course of Solar Cycle 23. Here we examine how those flows depend upon the strength (and presumably anchoring depth) of the magnetic elements. Line of sight magnetograms obtained by the HMI instrument aboard SDO over the course of Carrington Rotation 2097 were mapped to heliographic coordinates and averaged over 12 minutes to remove the 5-min oscillations. Data masks were constructed based on the field strength of each mapped pixel to isolate magnetic elements of differing field strength. We used Local Correlation Tracking of the unmasked data (separated in time by 1- to 8-hours) to determine the longitudinal and latitudinal motions of the magnetic elements. We then calculated average flow velocities as functions of latitude and longitude from the central meridian for approx 600 image pairs over the 27-day rotation. Variations with longitude indicate and characterize systematic errors in the flow measurements associated with changes in the signal from disk center to limb. Removing these systematic errors reveals changes in the axisymmetric flow properties that reflect changes in flow properties with depth in the surface shear layer.

Rightmire-Upton, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS2010

Flux Transport and the Sun's Global Magnetic Field

The Sun s global magnetic field is produced and evolved through the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions and its transport across the solar surface by the axisymmetric differential rotation and meridional flow and the non-axisymmetric convective flows of granulation, supergranulation, and giant cell convection. Maps of the global magnetic field serve as the inner boundary condition for space weather. The photospheric magnetic field and its evolution determine the coronal and solar wind structures through which CMEs must propagate and in which solar energetic particles are accelerated and propagate. Producing magnetic maps which best represent the actual field configuration at any instant requires knowing the magnetic field over the observed hemisphere as well as knowing the flows that transport flux. From our Earth-based vantage point we only observe the front-side hemisphere and each pole is observable for only six months of the year at best. Models for the surface magnetic flux transport can be used to provide updates to the magnetic field configuration in those unseen regions. In this presentation I will describe successes and failures of surface flux transport and present new observations on the structure, the solar cycle variability, and the evolution of the flows involved in magnetic flux transport. I find that supergranules play the dominant role due to their strong flow velocities and long lifetimes. Flux is transported by differential rotation and meridional flow only to the extent that the supergranules participate in those two flows.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Does the Current Minimum Validate (or Invalidate) Cycle Prediction Methods?

This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely different results. Current conditions and new observations indicate that some highly regarded techniques now appear to have doubtful utility. Geomagnetic precursors have been reliable in the past and can be tested with 12 cycles of data. Of the three primary geomagnetic precursors only one (the minimum level of geomagnetic activity) suggests a small cycle. The Sun's polar field strength has also been used to successfully predict the last three cycles. The current weak polar fields are indicative of a small cycle. For the first time, dynamo models have been used to predict the size of a solar cycle but with opposite predictions depending on the model and the data assimilation. However, new measurements of the surface meridional flow indicate that the flow was substantially faster on the approach to Cycle 24 minimum than at Cycle 23 minimum. In both dynamo predictions a faster meridional flow should have given a shorter cycle 23 with stronger polar fields. This suggests that these dynamo models are not yet ready for solar cycle prediction.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Variations in the Sun's Meridional Flow Over a Solar Cycle

The Sun's meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that is generally directed from its equator toward its poles at the surface. The structure and strength of the meridional flow determine both the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic field and the intensity of sunspot cycles. We determine the meridional flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The average flow is poleward at all latitudes up to 75 , which suggests that it extends to the poles. It was faster at sun spot cycle minimum than at maximum and substantially faster on the approach to the current minimum than it was at the last solar minimum. This result may help to ex plain why this solar activity minimum is so peculiar.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Video image stabilization and registration--plus

A method of stabilizing a video image displayed in multiple video fields of a video sequence includes the steps of: subdividing a selected area of a first video field into nested pixel blocks; determining horizontal and vertical translation of each of the pixel blocks in each of the pixel block subdivision levels from the first video field to a second video field; and determining translation of the image from the first video field to the second video field by determining a change in magnification of the image from the first video field to the second video field in each of horizontal and vertical directions, and determining shear of the image from the first video field to the second video field in each of the horizontal and vertical directions.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Sunspot Activity Near Cycle Minimum and What it Might Suggest for Cycle 24, the Next Sunspot Cycle

In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Sunspots, Space Weather and Climate

Four hundred years ago this year the telescope was first used for astronomical observations. Within a year, Galileo in Italy and Harriot in England reported seeing spots on the surface of the Sun. Yet, it took over 230 years of observations before a Swiss amateur astronomer noticed that the sunspots increased and decreased in number over a period of about 11 years. Within 15 years of this discovery of the sunspot cycle astronomers made the first observations of a flare on the surface of the Sun. In the 150 years since that discovery we have learned much about sunspots, the sunspot cycle, and the Sun s explosive events - solar flares, prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections that usually accompany the sunspots. These events produce what is called Space Weather. The conditions in space are dramatically affected by these events. Space Weather can damage our satellites, harm our astronauts, and affect our lives here on the surface of planet Earth. Long term changes in the sunspot cycle have been linked to changes in our climate as well. In this public lecture I will give an introduction to sunspots, the sunspot cycle, space weather, and the possible impact of solar variability on our climate.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Meridional Flow Variations Over Three Solar Cycles - What Happened in Cycle 23?

The meridional flow speed determines the strength of the Sun s polar fields in both surface flux transport models and in flux transport dynamos. The polar fields produced during cycle 23 were half as strong as those produced in the previous two cycles. Helioseismic measurements of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 indicated a decrease in flow velocity. This observation was used in flux transport dynamo models to predict a delayed start for cycle 24 and was consistent with weak polar fields and a slower equatorward drift of the active latitudes during cycle 23. On the other hand, the surface flux transport models require a faster meridional flow to produce the weak polar fields. We have begun measurements of the surface meridional flow by tracking the motions of weak (outside active regions) magnetic field elements in magnetograms from SOHO/MDI over cycle 23 and from NSO/Kitt Peak over cycles 21 to 23. We confirm the slowdown of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 but find that the flow speed returned to its previous level during the declining phase of cycle 23. Furthermore, this appears to be a normal feature of the meridional flow during sunspot cycles. The flow is fast at minima and slow at maxima. The lack of a significantly different meridional flow during cycle 23 is very problematic for both surface flux transport models and flux transport dynamos.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Wilson, Robert M.↗